February 3rd, 2025 

Ground Ops - Russian gains near the Oskil, Chasiv Yar, 

- Small Ukrainian gains in Toretsk

- More Russian gains around Pokrovsk

Politics  - Talks and rumors of talks - Everyone getting on board?

Weather

Temperatures are moving back below freezing all over Ukraine, wind chills in the teens; terrain should be freezing up, improving mobility, but clouds remain, continuing to degrade reconnaissance operations.

Kharkiv

33 and cloudy. Cloudy all week, daily lows in the 20s but dropping, into the teens by Friday; windchills colder - teens at first, single digits by weekend. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

33 and snowing. Mostly cloudy all week; more snow on Thursday. Daily lows in the 20s into Monday, daily highs in the low 30s early in the week, by the end of the week highs will be in the upper 20s. Windchills in the lower 20s to teens. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

30 in light snow, gusting to 20. Cloudy through the week; temperature highs and lows will be in the 20s all week, wind chills in the teens. Winds variable, 10kts.

Ground Operations 

Kursk Salient

Engagements were reported around the entire perimeter of the salient over the course of the weekend, but there are no confirmed changes in the front lines. Anecdotal reporting from various blogs move the lines in or out on both sides of the salient, but which reports are most accurate is impossible to tell. Unconfirmed reports do, however, suggest that the salient now ends just a mile north of Malaya Loknya, and that the Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) depiction of the front line extending 3 or 4 miles north of that town is incorrect.

North of Kharkiv

Fighting was reported in both small salients north of Kharkiv, but there were no changes in the front line.

North of the Donets River

North of Kupyansk fighting continues as Russian forces continue to try to push west and north-west from the Dvorichna area but they do not appear to have made any gains and Ukrainian forces appear to be holding immediately east of Kutkivka, as well as around Zapadne. There was also reporting on the 1st that Russian forces were active near Topoli, the Ukrainian town on the border with Russia, on the north side of the Oskil river, where it enters Ukraine from Russia. There are no further details in that report.

South of Kupyansk Russian forces managed to gain ground as they pushed westward towards Borova; Russian forces pressing south-westerly out of the Zelenyi Hai area are now less than 7 miles from Borova. Terrain between Zeleny Hai and Borova is mostly manicured farmland with one small creek flowing towards the Oskil, to the north of the line from Zeleny Hai to Borova.  Zeleny Hai is about 460 feet above sea level, Borova is about 400 feet, and the highest point between them is about 490 feet, so fairly gentle terrain (reminiscent of eastern Pennsylvania farmland).

More fighting was reported along the south end of the line of contact in this area, but there were no confirmed changes in the front lines, although some reporting suggests some Russian gains west of Terny.

Bakhmut

The UGS is reporting Russian gains north-east of Siversk, just west of Bilohorivka around the town of Hryorivka, along the southern bank of the Donets River, but reports are not clear and it may also reflect Russian gains north of the river in the Serebrianske forest.

Russian forces had small gains just north of, and in Chasiv Yar, confirmed by the UGS, with Russian forces pushing further into the Shevchenko section of Chasiv Yar.

Further south, in and around Toretsk, Ukrainian forces made small gains just west of Torestk on the south side of Shcherbynivka over the weekend. Russian forces continue to squeeze Krymske and Dachne, just north of Toretsk.

Donetsk City

Fighting continues along most of the perimeter of the Pokrovsk salient. 

Of note, east of Pokrovsk Russian force continue to push north in the general Vozdvyzhenka area. Meanwhile, west of Pokrovsk Russian forces pushed northward from Kotlyne along the rail line and are approaching the junction between the two major rail lines that enter Pokrovsk, one from the south-west - that they are using, and one from the north-west, now less than 3,000 yards away.

Just to the west Russian forces have reached Udachne and Novoyelyavetivka, and further south appear to have pushed into Andriivka, west of Kurakhove.

Fighting continues along the perimeter of the pocket south-west of Kurakhove but there has been no confirmed change in the boundaries of the pocket for several days.

The UGS reports that Russian forces have pushed into Novosilka, about 6 miles west of Velyka Novosilke, as of Sunday.

Southern Ukraine 

Fighting continued in the Orikhiv area and along the Dneper, with multiple probes and artillery exchanges, but there were no confirmed changes to the front line.

Air Operations

On the night of the Russian forces launched 123 x Shahed drones and 42 missiles of various types into Ukrainian airspace. The breakdown of missiles was:

7 x Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles

7 x Iskander-K cruise missiles

8 x Kh-22/32 cruise missiles

4 x Kalibr cruise missiles

8 x Kh-101/Kh-55cm cruise missiles

10 x Kh-59/Kh-69 cruise missiles 

2 x Kh-31P guided aerial missiles

123 x Shahed drones

The UAF claimed it shot down 56 drones and 61 drones were lost (defeated by EW).

There has been no breakdown yet of which missiles were shot down, but there were multiple hits on infrastructure reported across the country.

President Zelenskyy mentioned, during his evening broadcast, that Russian forces dropped 760 glide bombs and launched 660 strike drones and 50 missiles from the 24th of January through February 2nd. 

Politics

President Trump is making waves and the agenda is steadily shifting in his direction. Some developments include:

President Zelenskyy met with Special Envoy Kellogg who reported that:

"Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has already said that he will soften his position on the ground. And Putin will also have to soften his positions… We’re going to have discussions with everybody over time and probably in the near term…And it’s good for both sides."

President Zelenskyy later commented that: “Ukraine is closer to peace than ever during he last three years of war.”

Trump later commented:

”We're dealing with Ukraine and Russia. We have meetings and talks scheduled with various parties, including Ukraine and Russia. And I think those discussions are actually going pretty well."

Polish President Duda, while affirming continued support for Ukraine, commented in an interview over the weekend that Polish troops are not part of the solution.

"We are going to help Ukraine also in the future because it is necessary. We do not necessarily have to deploy our troops there.”

He expressed a willingness to participate in peace negotiations: ”it would be in the interest of Ukraine to have Poland also there,” and noted: ”If we look at that reborn Russian imperialism, in this particular case, Polish and Ukrainian interests are convergent.”

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Mar 7   Jun10-22 Jun8-23 Jun7 Sep9 Dec9 Jan8 Jan31 Feb3

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      80.06 71.74 72.63 76.69 76.86 75.46

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      75.81 68.37 68.85 73.94 72.83 72.46

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15      2.82 2.20 3.17 3.66 3.04 3.32

Wheat     8.52       12.94    10.71    6.17       6.40 5.67 5.59 5.37 5.61 5.68

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      88.77 90.75 100.84 105.18 98.62 99.76

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 fixed at 36.4 40.89 41.55 42.33 41.68 41.70

Urals 56.56    67.61 78.83 66.19 71.76 70.40 70.12

ESPO 65 77 78.19 78.36 76.96

Sokol 66.23 65.32 72.79 72.81 71.79

Thoughts

Trump’s pressure on the system has shifted the “conversation” significantly and both sides appear to recognize that there must be talks, and very soon.

A great deal has been made of statements by various Russians, in particular Putin, Foreign Minister Lavrov, and Deputy of the National Security Council Medvedev that the Russians are only interested in maximal conditions, that is, the de facto surrender of Ukraine.

On the other hand, it seems Putin was simply staking out a maximal positions from which to begin negotiations, as was Zelenskyy. For Trump, it would seem that the key is simply to get both sides talking and from there, segue into a ceasefire. Once the ceasefire is in place, a whole host of options became possible. 

But first, Trump has to have a talk with Putin, which presumably will be an interesting combination of smooth talking and veiled threats; there are rumors that a brief talk may already have taken place. Once that takes place, the real negotiations will begin. As for the EU, they will want to sit at the head table, but in the end they are going to go along with the US.

v/r pete