February 27th, 2025 

Politics - US, Russian negotiators meeting in Riyadh

- Zelenskyy heading to US

- Russia continues to state hard-line demands

Ground Ops - Russian forces gain ground in Kursk Salient

- Ukrainian, Russian forces make gains around Pokrovsk

Weather

Kharkiv

28 and sunny. Partly cloudy tomorrow and for the next week. Daily lows will be in single digits to low teens through the weekend, daily highs will be in the upper 20s, no significant windchill for the next four days. Winds variable,  less than 5kts.

Melitopol

29 and sunny. Sunny on Friday, then party to mostly cloudy for the following week. Daily lows will be in the teens to low 20s, daily highs in the low 30s, windchills 4-5  degrees colder.  Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

39 and clear, windchill 31, gusting over 20. Mostly sunny tomorrow followed by a week of heavy clouds, snow on Saturday. Daily lows in the 20s on Friday, around 30 all next week, daily highs in the mid 30s, windchills 4-5 degrees colder. Winds southerly, 5-10kts.

Politics and Diplomacy

Russian and US negotiators are meeting in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia and are discussing returning their respective embassies to full working status. Meanwhile, President Zelenskyy has departed Poland (he trained to Poland, flying from Poland to the US) and is now en route Washington DC via Dublin. Presidents Trump and Zelenskyy will meet at the White House tomorrow. 

Russia says it will not negotiate on the five oblasts that it annexed after its invasion (of which it only fully controls one), and continues to stake out hard-line positions prior to the commencement of the real negotiations.

Turkey has said that they are willing to provide peace-keeping forces to Ukraine, and President Erdogan has reportedly discussed this idea with both President Zelenskyy and Russian ForMin Lavrov.

Erdogan also offered Turkey as a site for any future peace negotiations.

Ground Operations

KURSK SALIENT

There are conflicting claims of who controls what in the Kursk salient, and no confirmed, geolocated images positioning any units, but the following appears close: Russian MinDef claimed Russian control over Nikolskoye, a small town on the west side of the salient, about 8 miles from Sudzha. Russian forces have “pinched" the salient (east to west) in the last several days, there clearly has been some penetration by Russian forces across the Ukrainian border just south of the west edge of the salient and the Russian element that pushed into Ukraine appears to have reached and passed through the town of Basivka and is less than 2 miles (perhaps as close as a mile) from the H07/P200 roadway that is the main logistics line to the Ukrainian forces in the salient. 

NORTH OF KHARKIV

Fighting continues but there were no noted changes to the front line.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

The Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) reported Russian forces countered the Ukrainian operations near Dvorichna, and fighting continues just west of Dvorichna, with the UGS noting small Russian gains. Fighting was also reported just east of Kupyansk as well as further south along the Oskil, just south of Zahryzove. Fighting was also noted east of Borova, and Russian sources claimed gains on the ground, but there were no confirmed changes in the front lines.

Fighting was also noted at multiple sites west of Terny, but again there were no noted changes to the front lines.

BAKHMUT

North-east of Bakhmut fighting continues both south-east of Siversk and west of Bilohorivka, but there were no confirmed gains by either side.

In the Chasiv Yar area, Russian forces remained on the attack and on the west side of Chasiv Yar appear to have pushed further south-west. In addition, Russian forces  appear to have made small gains in Stupochky, just south of Chasiv Yar.

Further south, in Toretsk, one of the surrounded Ukrainian units appears to have broken out of their pocket and retaken several blocks of most northern corner of Toretsk, just west of the largest mine waste hill.

DONETSK CITY

Fighting continues on most of the perimeter of the Pokrovsk salient, but the key fighting is taking place just south and south-west of Pokrovsk where Ukrainian forces have pushed back, and are holding the Russian forces along the T0406 roadway between Kotlyne and Udachne. Fighting is taking palace in Kotlyne as well. Just south-east of Kotlyne Ukrainian forces striking south-west from the Pokrovsk area have once again pushed into Pishchane and appear to control about half that town. About 3 miles south of Udachne there is another hard fight taking place for control of Uspenivka.

On the south side of the salient imagery confirms Russian control of Andriivka, and further to the south Russian forces continue to press north and west of Velyka Novosilke and should be closing on the Ukrainian defensive positions located just outside of the village of Vesele.

  

Air.Operations

Russian forces launched more than 177 x Shahed drones into Ukraine air space last night and this morning and the UAF claimed it shot down 110 drones, and 66 drones  were “lost” (brought down by EW).

As per SOP, the UAF claimed that no drones hit their targets and that all fires were started by falling debris. Fires were reported at several industrial facilities.

Republic of Korea (ROK) intelligence offices report that more North Korean soldiers are being sent to Russia, though there is no exact number yet.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Mar 7   Jun10-22 Jun8-23 Jun7 Dec9 Jan8 Feb7 Feb26 Feb27

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      80.06 72.63 76.69 74.89 72.59 73.75

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      75.81 68.85 73.94 71.17 68.63 69.88

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15      2.82 3.17 3.66 3.37 3.99 4.03

Wheat     8.52       12.94    10.71    6.17       6.40 5.59 5.37 5.86 5.81 5.69

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      88.77 100.84 105.18 96.88 86.88 87.35

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 fixed at 36.4 41.55 42.33 41.46 41.65 41.65

Urals 56.56    67.61 66.19 71.76 68.32 65.49 65.49

ESPO 77 78.19 ??? 74.09 75.25

Sokol 65.32 72.79 70.92 69.76 69.47

Ukraine’s total federal debt reached $168.99 billion (on a GDP of about $160 billion).

Thoughts 

President Zelenskyy meets with President Trump tomorrow to sign the “Reconstruction Investment Fund Agreement,” which includes plans for developing the various rare earths deposits.

Zelenskyy had apparently earlier commented that the agreement wasn’t complete and he wasn’t sure he would sign it, to which Trump commented that there wasn’t any reason to meet if Zelenskyy wasn’t going to sign. So, presumably the document has been finished and Zelenskyy is going to sign the document.

The fact that Trump began with a “grand” demand (50% and $500 billion) and the final document had essentially none of that should remind us what was noted by several of Trump’s oldest friends during his first term: watch what he does, not what he says. And it is consistent with his “Art of the Deal” - first you need to get folks talking and then you negotiate the details.

So, staking out an extreme position and working back from that is to be expected. Just everyone be prepared for it to happen at high speed.

v/r pete