February 17th, 2025 

Politics - US and Russia meet tomorrow in Riyadh

- Rubio in Kyiv today

Ground Ops - Small Russian Gains in Kursk Salient

- Ukrainian pocket south-west of Kurakhove overrun

Air Operations - Russian oil facilities hit 

Weather

Cold; windchills worse.

Kharkiv

17 and partly cloudy. Partly to mostly cloudy all week. Daily highs will be int he mod 20s, lows will be in single digits, windchills 4-5 points lower. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

23 and clear, windchill in the teens. Partly cloudy for the next week. Daily lows will be in the teens, daily highs at or just below freezing, windchills 4-5 degrees lower.  Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

23 and partly cloudy, gusting over 25, windchill 10. Partly cloudy to cloudy all week. Daily lows will be in the teens all week, daily highs in the low 20s, windchills 7 or 8 degrees colder. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Politics and Diplomacy

SecState Rubio talked with Russian ForMin Lavrov on the 16th; the two agreed on maintaining communications; Rubio noted that he discussed returning US and Russian embassies to functioning embassies in order to better communicate between the two countries.

Meanwhile, US, Ukrainian and Russian personnel are traveling to Saudi Arabia to begin setting up for the negotiations. An unconfirmed report suggests that ForMin Lavrov will be in Saudi Arabia on the 18th. Special Envoy Kellogg is in Kyiv today to meet with President Zelenskyy.

SecState Rubio is scheduled to travel to Riyadh tomorrow (the 18th).

The Kremlin invited President Trump to attend the May 9th Victory Day parade in Moscow.

Among the discussions surrounding the peace negotiations is the question of a military contingent from other countries to man the border and oversee the ceasefire. President Zelenskyy has suggested a force of 100,000 to 200,000 troops.

The Washington Post reports that unnamed “European Officials” suggest that Europe could send a contingent of 25,000 - 30,000 troops (the EU has a gross population of 450 million and a combined GDP of $21 trillion. The US has 340 million people and a $28 trillion GDP, and the need to look after the Pacific and Mid East). France, Sweden and the UK have all mentioned the possibility of sending troops.

Prime Minister Starmer emphasized that "The UK is ready to play a leading role in accelerating work on security guarantees for Ukraine. This includes further support for Ukraine’s military – where the UK has already committed £3 billion a year until at least 2030… But it also means being ready and willing to contribute to security guarantees to Ukraine by putting our own troops on the ground if necessary. Any role in helping to guarantee Ukraine’s security is helping to guarantee the security of our continent and the security of this country.”

The British Army currently consists of 76,000 active duty troops and 26,000 reserves, and has 2 full division and a number of independent regiments and battalions. Exactly how large an element they could contribute to a sustained peace agreement remains to be seen, as this is likely to be a long-term arrangement. 

Germany has opposed a European peacekeeping force and has said it will not participate if one is sent.

Spain’s ForMin Albares said it was too soon to say:

"It is too early at this time to speak about deploying troops to Ukraine as there is no peace at the moment.”

President Zelenskyy commented on the talks between the US and Russia, in Saudi Arabia: 

"Ukraine will not participate [in talks]. Ukraine did not know anything about them. And Ukraine considers any negotiations about Ukraine without Ukraine useless. And we cannot recognize anything or any agreements about us without us. And we will not recognize such agreements.”

US Special Envoy Kellogg noted that there will be no imposed agreement, and commented on President Zelenskyy that:

"He and the people of Ukraine will make this decision.”

On February 14th NATO Secretary General Rutte commented that there never was guarantee of Ukrainian membership in NATO as part of any peace agreement with Russia. 

President Zelenskyy instructed his envoys to not sing an agreement with the US on rare earths as the agreement “did not protect Ukrainian interests.”

White House National Security Council spokesman Hughes commented that Zelenskyy was being “short-sighted.”

Ground Operations 

Both forces continued fighting throughout the weekend but there have been little ground gained or lost in the past week, mainly marginal shifts in the lines along most of the front. There are a number of possible explanations and the real reason is probably a combination of all the suspected reasons, but I suspect the main reason is that it has been very cold along much of the front, with windchills in single digits at night and in the early morning, and shifts from cloud cover to clear air making undetected movements (safer during cloudy and foggy days) an iffy thing as clouds lift and then return, only to lift again. There has been some speculation that the Russians are running out of steam, that they have a manpower issue, and that they are shifting focus to attack Kostyantynivka… At various points along the front parts of each possible reason are also true and as mentioned last week or so, the Russian push through Chasiv Yar, through Toretsk, and north-east from the Pokrovsk salient all would come together in hitting Kostyantynivka from three sides. 

There were Russian gains in the Kursk salient, with Russian forces pushing in from the west, with confirmed gains on the south-western most corner of the salient. On the east side, the two Ukrainian battalion that thrust south-east into Russian territory remain in place but will soon need to decide to withdraw or risk being cut off.

Of interest, Russian forces claim they destroyed another M1 tank in combat yesterday.

North of Kupyansk Russian forces made some small gains west of the Oskil River, with the Russian effort appearing to focus on building forces west of the Oskil for follow-on attacks. Like much of what the Russians have done over much of the war (the last 18 months in particular), the movements are very slow, deliberate and done so as to minimize tactical risk. But it is like watching concrete set.

Further south there was fighting reported at key spots along the entire line from south of Kupyansk to Chasiv Yar and Toretsk and there were minor gains made by the Russians, but the gains were, in fact marginal, several hundred meters at best, or inside several towns advances consisted of moving forward a single street.

Russian forces did claim to take some high ground right outside (just east) of Stupochky over the weekend, while Ukrainian forces appear to have retaken one street in Krymske. Perhaps there are as many as a half dozen small pockets of Ukrainian troops remaining inside Toretsk, each surrounded by Russian forces. 

Russian forces also made some small gains north-east of Pokrovsk, but fighting was reported along essentially the entire perimeter of the Pokrovsk salient.

Of note, the Ukrainian controlled pocket south-east of Kurakhove continues to collapse, the eastern end has been taken by the Russian, the town of Andriivka appears to be in Russian hands, and the smalls town of Ulakly is mostly in Russian hands, and the north and south “jaws” are now perhaps 2 miles across; Ukrainian forces east of Ulakly have either been overrun or they have now withdrawn. The Russians continue to straighten lines.

Fighting was reported further to the south and across southern Ukraine, but there were no confirmed gains.

Air Operations

On the night of the 15th Russian forces launched 2 x Iskander ballistic missiles and 143 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 95 drones and 46 drones were lost (defeated by EW). Drones strikes were reported in Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Odessa and Sumy oblasts. At least one Iskander ballistic missile struck a power plant in the Odessa regime and left more than 100,000 homes without electricity.

On the night of the 14th Russian forces launched at least 1 x S-300 missile and 70 x Shahed drones in Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 33 drones and that 37 were “lost” (defeated by EW). Officials in Odessa oblast reported damage to agricultural facilities and residence.

A Shahed drone struck the radiation confinement shell of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant the 14th, leaving a small hole in the building. Fire was still burning on the 15th. There has been no measured increase in radiation.

The Russian government denied involvement and noted that the strike took place in the hours prior to the Munich conference, and was done to disrupt peace negotiations.

Ukrainian forces claim that Ukrainian drones struck the Ilsky oil refinery and  the Kropotkinskaya oil pumping stations over the weekend. The Ilsky refinery suffered multiple explosions and a fire reportedly continues at the site.  The pumping station is reportedly shut down.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Mar 7   Jun10-22 Jun8-23 Jun7 Dec9 Jan8 Feb7 Feb13 Feb17

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      80.06 72.63 76.69 74.89 75.09 75.06

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      75.81 68.85 73.94 71.17 71.34 71.13

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15      2.82 3.17 3.66 3.37 3.63 3.57

Wheat     8.52       12.94    10.71    6.17       6.40 5.59 5.37 5.86 5.77 5.38

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      88.77 100.84 105.18 96.88 89.50 91.52

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 fixed at 36.4 41.55 42.33 41.46 41.76 41.55

Urals 56.56    67.61 66.19 71.76 68.32 70.01 67.71

ESPO 77 78.19 ??? 76.59 76.56

Sokol 65.32 72.79 70.92 70.76 71.17

Thoughts

A great deal going on as far as negotiations and there ought to be some interesting news by the end of the week, with talks beginning tomorrow.

I am reminded of Chancellor Bismarck’s line from 140 years ago that “The entire Balkans aren't worth the sound bones of a single Pomeranian grenadier.”

One simple observation: President Trump and VP Vance made fairly clear in their statements over the last week that Ukraine is much more of a European interest than an American one. Perhaps in the view of the White House, Ukraine would hold vital US interests if there were major US economic assets located in Ukraine. I don’t know. But it seems to me that that is the hint here.

v/r pete