November 14th, 2025

Politics - More aid to Ukraine

Combat Ops - Large drone and missile strike, casualties, blackouts

- Russian gains in southern Ukraine

Weather

Kharkiv

44 and mostly cloudy, gusting to 20. Cloudy for the next week, rain possible every day beginning Sunday. Daily lows in the upper 30s, daily highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

46 and sunny. Partly cloudy tomorrow morning, then clouding up, mostly cloudy next week. Daily lows in the mid 30s, daily highs in the 50s.  Winds southerly, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

46 and mostly cloudy, gusting over 20. Cloudy for the next week, light rain on Saturday. Saturday in the 40s, Sunday lows will be in the mid 20s, Monday and Tuesday back into the 40s, then 3 days of lows below freezing and highs in the 30s. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Politics 

Aid for Ukraine:

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development  (EBRD) will lend 22 million Euros ($26 million) to Ukrainian energy company “Power One” to finance a natural gas power plant and battery energy storage facility.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) will meet with Ukrainian government officials to discuss a new, 4 year lending program to supersede the current $15.5 billion program; Ukraine has drawn $10.6 billion under the current program.

European Commission (EC) President von der Leyen has told the EU Parliament that the EU could borrow money to cover Kyiv’s financial needs for 2026-2027, or each EU country could borrow on its own and provide a grant to Ukraine, or the EC could put together a loan based on frozen Russian central bank assets, and then transition the loan to a grant.

European banks working with Ukraine’s Naftogaz, signed a deal for and EU grant of 127 million euros ($147 million), in addition to a 300 million euro ($348 million) loan last month, to provide for natural gas to Ukraine. 

Ground Operations

SUMY - KHARKIV OBLASTS

Fighting continues north of Sumy City but there were no confirmed changes to the front line.

Fighting continues north of Kharkiv; there are no confirmed changes but other reports suggest marginal gains by both sides in south-west Vovchansk, probably reflective of probes by each side into enemy territory.

Along the border north of the Oskil River blogger reports suggest Russian forces have gained some of the farmland between Odradne and Bolohivka, but poor weather prevents confirmation.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

There were no confirmed changes to the front line in this sector.

However, other reports suggest two developments: first, that Russian forces have pushed eastward in Kupyansk and now control essentially all of the city west of the Oskil River and north of the P07 roadway, with the exception of a section of the west side of the city. Second, to the south, west of Lyman, reports suggest that Russian forces in the Drobysheve area have pushed southward and are astride the railway line that runs from Kharkiv and points west, into Lyman. 

BAKHMUT - TORETSK - POKROVSK

Fighting is reported in the arc from north-west of Siversk, to the east, and then around to the south of Siversk, and there are multiple claims of Russian gains, but none of them are confirmed.

Imagery confirmed Russian gains north-west of Chasiv Yar, north of Maiske, south of Markove. This is open farmland and some small patches of higher ground. There are also claims of Russian gains around Ivanopillia, but these are not confirmed, and additional claims that Russian forces have overrun the last Ukrainian positions south of the Kleban Byk Reservoir and are now engaged in clearing those positions.

Further west, Russian forces claim gains around Shakhove and Volodymyrivka, but these have not been confirmed.

Pokrovsk - There are no confirmed charges in the lines in and around Pokrovsk as a result of overcast weather. Russian sources claimed gains in Rodynske (north of the Pokrovsk pocket), though fighting continues in that town. In the Pokrovsk pocket itself, there was fighting reported in a half dozen villages, and fighting was also noted on the east and west sides of Pokrovsk, as well as in north central Pokrovsk. Russian and Ukrainian sources claimed gains in most areas of the fight but again, there is nothing to confirm changes in the lines. Drone strikes and artillery strikes are said to be very heavy, and the fight inside Myrnohrad and Pokrovsk both continue to devolve to house-to-house fighting across both cities.

South of Pokrovsk, to the Vovcha River, there is no confirmed change in the front line, but blogger reports suggest that Russian forces are slowly clearing the farmland north of Dachne, east of Fillia.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Russian forces south of the Vovcha River continue to press westward. The Russian forces committed to the attack just north-east of Hulyaipole, a front about 25 miles long, is estimated to be 9 brigades and regiments, including an armored brigade, plus a reserve of 6 regiments. I don’t have complete data on Ukrainian forces in this area.

As noted yesterday, Russian forces had reached Rivnopillia by the 11th, Ukrainian regional HQ reported that Ukrainian forces had withdrawn from that town by evening of the 11th, and Russian forces were at that time nearing Solodke, Yablukove, and Vesele. Unconfirmed but credible reports suggest Russian recon elements have pressed westward from the area of Yehorivka and have reached the T0401 roadway. It is not clear that they remained, or withdrew. The Russian line, minus the recon probe, is between 2 and 3 miles from the roadway, meaning that this Ground Line of Communication is now already a high risk road to get supplies into Hulyaipole and the nearby towns.

The Roadway marks a ready boundary for the Russian push west; just beyond the roadway to the west is the Haichur River and then a string of small villages (aligned north-south) that follow the river and the road. It would seem reasonable to hold at the roadway until Hulayaipole is taken as well as the terrain just east of the road, while Russian forces just a few miles north - who are north of the last prepared Ukrainian defensive positions, push west and then south, and can then strike at the Ukrainian rear in these small towns.

Fighting continued across southern Ukraine but there were no confirmed changes in the front line.

Fighting was again reported near the Antonovskiy bridge; again, there were no details.

Air and Maritime Operations

During the night of November 13th-November 14th Russian forces launched at least 3 x Kinzhal ballistics missiles, 9 x Iskander ballistic missiles, 6 x Iskander cruise missiles, 1 x Zircon cruise missile, and 430 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or otherwise defeated with EW, 2 Kinzhal missiles, 6 Iskander ballistic missiles, 6 Iskander cruise missiles, and missiles 102 drones. The is a high success rate against ballistic missiles.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kyiv, Sumy and Vinnytsia oblasts. Power outages were reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Odessa and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

Casualties reports include at least 9 civilians killed and 36 wounded in drones and missile strikes.

RuAF tacair struck 8 towns.

On November 12th Ukrainian drones struck the Oryol Thermal Power Plant (Oryol is about 100 miles north-east of the north-east corner of Ukraine) and claimed damage to the boiler and turbine buildings, and there was a confirmed fire at the facility, but specific damage is unknown.

An unconfirmed report notes that Russia is attempting to produce 120,000 per year (10,000 per month) UMPK - guidance kits, and bomb bodies.

During the night of November 12th-November 13th Russian forces launched at least 1 x Iskander ballistic missile and 138 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or otherwise defeated with EW, 102 drones. The ballistic missile was not intercepted, and appears to have struck a target in the Odessa area.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, Odessa, and Sumy oblasts. Power outages were reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Odessa and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

Casualties reports include at least 2 civilians killed and 8 wounded in drones and missile strikes.

RuAF tacair struck 2 towns.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Aug8 Sep9 Oct8 Nov7 Nov13 Nov14

Brent      94.71    66.90 67.03 66.18 63.86 63.35 63.82

WTI     92.10    64.29 63.26 62.48 59.94 59.07 59.61

NG       3.97         3.06 3.12 3.44 4.33 4.54 4.53

Wheat     8.52          5.18 5.22 5.06 5.32 5.34 5.44

Ruble     85          79.74 84.03 81.28 80.95 80.70 80.96

Hryvnia 28.6 41.39 41.23 41.48 41.89 42.00 42.02

Urals 91.66 63.17 60.12 61.15 56.56 53.02 53.80

ESPO 94.52 68.63 68.32 66.74 65.18 62.87 60.64

Sokol 99.31 62.57 62.97 61.91 60.71 59.76 60.83

Thoughts

There is an interesting argument that the Russians are exploiting the effects of their air campaign (what is being called “battlefield air interdiction”) and bad weather to gain ground at several points along the front line, pointing out that the bad weather hampers Ukraine drone surveillance flights. But, there is of course, more to it; the bad weather affects Russian observations and other flight operations as well. Put differently, if the weather were to break tomorrow, there would not be a substantive change in the tactics along the front lines. 

More generally, the Russian push westward in southern Ukraine seems to be continuing at what, for the Russian army since fall of 2022, is a significant pace and my guess is that there is something more here than simply poor weather and better drone work. Again, numbers are hard to come by, but it seems as if the Ukrainian forces in the area have no significant strategic reserves, that those assets (with the exception of the forces held in the Kyiv area) have already been committed, both in this area and around Pokrovsk and Kupyansk, and Ukrainian force plus-ups will need to come from shifting forces from one spot out of the line to another - that is, taking more risk, and from bringing more rear area troops (non-infantry) forward and making them ad hoc infantry… 

v/r pete