November 24th, 2025

Politics - Now 19 Points - talks continue, Rubio says “Progress”

Combat Ops - Russian small gains - Pokrovsk and Hulyaipole

Weather

Cloudy and some rain across most of Ukraine, temperatures warmer (40s) most of this week, then into the 30s. Warmer temperatures will keep fields and dirt roads from freezing, forcing most heavier vehicles to use roads.

Kharkiv

42 and cloudy, gusting to 20. Cloudy all week. Tomorrow morning near freezing, then slight warming, Tuesday afternoon through Friday evening in the 40s, but on Saturday temperatures will return to the 30s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

49 and cloudy, gusting to 20. Sunny tomorrow afternoon, but otherwise cloudy weather for the week. Daily lows in the 40s, daily highs in the mid 50s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

34 and partly cloudy, gusting over 25. Cloudy all week; rain on Thursday. Early tomorrow temperatures will be near freezing, then warming, from Tuesday afternoon through Thursday night temperatures will be in the 40s, Friday will see a return to the low 30s. Winds southerly, 10-15kts.

Politics

Reporting from Geneva suggests that the peace plan is down to 19 points, but no specifics have been given. Rumor has it that reference to NATO, and no NATO membership for Ukraine, have been removed.

The Peace Proposal remains the key topic. SecState Rubio, in Geneva, Switzerland, been working with the Ukrainian delegation to refine the rough proposal that was leaked last week. European leaders are also working on their own proposal.

Statements by the Secretary, and by President Trump track the progress of the talks:

Monday Morning - President Trump

“Is it really possible that big progress is being made in Peace Talks between Russia and Ukraine??? Don't believe it until you see it, but something good just may be happening. GOD BLESS AMERICA!”

Late on Sunday - SecState Rubio

“...tremendous amount of progress… there are a couple of issues we need to work on… None of them are insurmountable,… We just need more time than we had today. I honestly believe we'll get there.”

Later on Sunday - President Zelenskyy:

[We are] “grateful to the United States … and personally to President Trump” for the assistance that has been “saving Ukrainian lives.”

On Sunday - President Trump

“The War between Russia and Ukraine is a violent and terrible one that, with strong and proper U.S. and Ukrainian LEADERSHIP, would have NEVER HAPPENED. It began long before I took office for a Second Term, during the Sleepy Joe Biden Administration, and has only gotten worse. If the 2020 Presidential Election was not RIGGED & STOLEN, the only thing the Radical Left Democrats are good at doing, there would be noUkraine/Russia War, as there wasn't, not even a mention, during my first Term in Office. Putin would never have attacked! It was only when he saw Sleepy Joe in action that he said, "Now is my chance!" The rest is history, and so it continues. I INHERITED A WAR THAT SHOULD HAVE NEVER HAPPENED, A WAR THAT IS A LOSER FOR EVERYONE, ESPECIALLY THE MILLIONS OF PEOPLE THAT HAVE SO NEEDLESSLY DIED. UKRAINE "LEADERSHIP" HAS EXPRESSED ZERO GRATITUDE FOR OUR EFFORTS, AND EUROPE CONTINUES TO BUY OIL FROM RUSSIA. THE USA CONTINUES TO SELL MASSIVE AMOUNTS OF WEAPONS TO NATO, FOR DISTRIBUTION TO UKRAINE (CROOKED JOE GAVE EVERYTHING, FREE, FREE, FREE, INCLUDING "BIG" MONEY!). GOD BLESS ALL THE LIVES THAT HAVE BEEN LOST IN THE HUMAN CATASTROPHE!” President DJT

Early on Sunday - President Zelenskyy

“Teams are meeting in Switzerland to work on steps to end the war. It is good that diplomacy has been activated and that the conversation can be constructive. The Ukrainian and American teams, the teams of our European partners, are in close contact, and I really hope that there will be a result. We need to stop the bloodshed and ensure that the war is not ignited again. I am waiting for the results of today's talks, I hope that all participants will be constructive. We need a positive result for all of us.”

Sunday - Chancellor Merz:

“It is important to us that there can be no peace plan for Ukraine if we do not give our consent to issues that affect European interests and European sovereignty… And that is precisely what the representatives of Ukraine, the United States of America and the European member states achieved yesterday in Geneva… We welcome the fact that these talks took place in Geneva. We also welcome the interim result. Some issues were clarified, but we also know: Peace in Ukraine won’t happen overnight…[Russia must be involved]… And if this is possible, then every effort will have been worthwhile… [This is] a lengthy, long-lasting process. I don’t expect a breakthrough this week.”

Analysis from Forbes suggests that the population of Ukraine - those areas controlled by the Kyiv government, is now 30.5 million, down from 52 million in 1991, 48.5 million in 2011, and 41 million in February 2023.

Ground Operations

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Fighting continues north of Sumy city but there were no confirmed changes to the front lines.

Fighting continues north and north-east of Khakriv city but there were no confirmed changes to the front lines.

Fighting continues just inside Ukraine, north of the Oskil River, butt here were no confirmed changes to the lines.

In all three areas noted above the overall level of activity appears to have decreased by both sides; I’m speculating but it appears that both sides have pulled forces from these areas and shifted them elsewhere.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Fighting continues in and around Kupyansk, with a steady stream of contradictory reports. The Russian MinDef claims that Kupyansk is essentially under Russian control; Gen. Gerasimov, Chief of the General Staff, claimed on the 20th that the city was “secured." Some Ukrainian General Staff reports suggest that it has been cleared of all but small pockets of Russian forces. Several respected independent Ukrainian sources suggest that the Russians still occupy the northern half of the city. 

Add in literal fog and cloudy weather, making independent confirmation difficult at best, and you have a good deal of uncertainty.

What is available, however - drone footage and hand-held video - shows the city as having been very badly mauled, but it was badly mauled by the end of 2022 and has only gotten worse since then. My guess is that the fight has already devolved to small unit, street-to-street and house-to-house fighting and on any given day no one knows who is winning, or where precisely is the front line, an almost meaningless idea inside these mangled cities, where small elements of each army hold ground in a patchwork manner. But, both sides have noted that fighting in the area is “fierce.” 

Further south, in the terrain east and north-east of Borova, there is a similar set of contradictory reports suggesting either that Ukrainian forces continue to hold a several mile long salient into Russian lines, north-east of Borova, or that the Russians have either rolled over the salient, or forced the Ukrainian forces to withdraw. Again, there is no clear answer. However, in this case it appears that the Ukrainian unit made an attack along a seam in the Russian line, and pushed about 2 miles into empty farmland. I suspect that they either could not hold it or are being squeezed right now and will need to withdraw. At the same time, there are unconfirmed reports that Russian forces have taken Bohuslavka (about 6 miles north-north-east of Borova, which, if correct would have cut off any Ukrainian units north of that town (between Bohuslavka and Zahryzove).

Further south, imagery confirmed Russian gains around Novoselivka, on the Nitrius River, which further improves the Russian capability to interdict the ground lines of communication (GLOC) into Lyman and Siversk. There are also several unconfirmed reports of further Russian gains just east and north-east of Lyman.

BAKHMUT - TORETSK - POKROVSK

North and north-east of Bakhmut fighting continues around Siversk and, again, there are conflicting reports, though not nearly bad as elsewhere. Russian forces continue to press on Siversk from east and south of the city, and recon probes continue to push into the city. Imagery confirmed Russian forces in the center of the town of Platonivka (to the north-west of Siversk), though it isn't clear how much of the town is controlled by Russians and how much is contested. What is clear is that Russia forces in this area are able to interdict the GLOC that runs just south of Platonivka into Siversk, and that Russian forces are positioning for further attacks on Siversk from the south and east. 

South-west of Chasiv Yar, north-west of Torestk, Russian forces were imaged in western Ivanopillia and Russian sources claim that town is now fully in the hands of Russian forces, and recon probes continue into Kostiantinivka. Most reporting suggests that the south-east edge of Kostiantinivka, as well as the towns to the east (Predtechyne, Ivanopillia, Stupochky) all have a good deal of fighting taking place, at least on the edges and that these areas constitute a de facto “no mans land.”

Further west of Toretsk, north-east of the Pokrovsk pocket, Russian forces appear to have made some gains and imagery yesterday confirmed that Russian forces have pushed into central Shakhove. 

In and around Pokrovsk, and in the Pokrovsk pocket, imagery confirmed some Russian gains in all areas. North of Pokrovsk, in Rodynske, Russian forces had by Friday pushed into the north end of town, and further west, had pushed north out of Udachne. In the pocket itself, Russian forces continue to squeeze the southern end of the pocket, while also attacking into the pocket from the north-east. Russian forces are also pressing on isolated Ukrainian elements holding ground inside Pokrovsk and Russian elements are pressing south out of Rodynske, trying to close the mouth of the pocket. The mouth now is, depending on whose reporting you follow, roughly 2,000 to 5,000 yards across. But this is mostly open farmland, with just a few small sections of woods and tree lines - which must now be not only without leaves, but presumably all burned. Logistics support into the pocket and withdrawing from the pocket will be extremely difficult at best.

Nevertheless, the Ukrainian forces are holding and reports from both sides (to include Gen. Gerasimov in his report to President Putin) noted “fierce” fighting.

Further south, from the Pokrovsk area to the Vovcha River, fighting continues but there were no confirmed changes in the line,

That said, there is reporting that suggests Russian forces are making progress east of Fillia, north of Dachne, in securing farmland and gradually straightening their lines.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

South of the Vovcha River, Russian forces continue to attack to the west and south-west; reporting is again contradictory with Russian forces claiming substantial gains, but there is little to confirm most of the reports. Imagery continues to emerge of Russian forces raising flags in various towns, but many of these appear to be recon elements that probe into town, “get their pictures taken” by a drone, but they don’t control the town. At the same time, it also suggests that the gaps in the Ukrainian line are increasing in number and suggests more manpower issues in the Ukrainian army.

Overall, it does appear that Russian forces have, at least at several spots, pushed closer to Hulyaipole, and to the Haichur River, and despite the lack of confirmed changes in the line, pressure on Hulyaipole is increasing.

Imagery confirmed Russian gains on the south side of Novodanylivka - due south of Orikhiv; it appears that Russian forces have pushed north along the T0408 roadway and currently hold perhaps a third of the town. This puts Russian forces north of the Ukrainian defensive line that had been developed in 2022 and early 2023. 

There are multiple Russian sourced reports of Russian gains along the front from just south of Orikhiv westward to the Dnepr River, but none of the other gains have been confirmed. That said, Russian forces are clearly active in this area, which ties down Ukrainian forces, further complicating the Ukrainian General Staff’s efforts at trying to shift forces and reinforce further east. 

Fighting was reported on the Dnepr River, near the Antonovskiy bridge, but there were no details given.

Air and Maritime Operations

During the night of November 23rd-November 24th Russian forces launched at least 162 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or otherwise defeated with EW, 125 drones. 

Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv oblasts. 

At least 4 civilian killed and 12 civilians were wounded in last night’s strikes. 

During the night of November 23rd-November 24th Ukrainian forces struck the port city of Anapa (about 25 miles south-east of the Kerch straight), and Nizhniy Novgorod (about 200 miles east of Moscow), and there were reports of drones in the Moscow area.

During the night of November 22nd-November 23rd Russian forces launched at least 98 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or otherwise defeated with EW, 69 drones. 

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk oblasts. 

There were no casualty reports.

During the night of November 22nd-November 23rd Ukrainian drones struck the Shatura Power Plant outside of Moscow. And imagery confirmed that there was a fire at the plant. 

During the night of November 21st-November 22nd Russian forces launched at least 1 x Iskander ballistic missile and 104 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or otherwise defeated with EW, 89 drones. 

Damage was reported in Kharkiv and Odessa oblasts. 

There were no casualty reports.

During the night of November 20th-November 21st Russian forces launched at least 115 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or otherwise defeated with EW, 95 drones. 

Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Odessa, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. 

At least 5 killed and 3 civilians were wounded in last night’s strikes. As rescue workers continue clearing rubble in Ternopil, the casualty total now stands at 27 killed and 94 wounded civilians.

RuAF tacair struck 7 towns.

Ukraine’s energy Ministry reported that all major thermal and hydro-electric power plants in the country have now been damaged.

As of November 21st the Ukrainian General Staff reports that Russian forces have launched 112,000 Shahed drones.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Aug8 Sep9 Oct8 Nov7 Nov21 Nov24

Brent      94.71    66.90 67.03 66.18 63.86 62.81 62.73

WTI     92.10    64.29 63.26 62.48 59.94 58.31 58.21

NG       3.97         3.06 3.12 3.44 4.33 4.55 4.50

Wheat     8.52          5.18 5.22 5.06 5.32 5.39 5.34

Ruble     85          79.74 84.03 81.28 80.95 79.03 78.48

Hryvnia 28.6 41.39 41.23 41.48 41.89 42.24 42.47

Urals 91.66 63.17 60.12 61.15 56.56 55.40 52.81

ESPO 94.52 68.63 68.32 66.74 65.18 59.50 58.44

Sokol 99.31 62.57 62.97 61.91 60.71 59.42 59.42

Thoughts

Two thoughts: 

The 28 point proposal (now reportedly 19 points) has worked to at least get people talking, and any deal starts with folks talking. Sadly, from 4,000 miles away the European leadership appears to be like a kid in a school yard jumping up and down yelling “Pick me.” 

Europe has had 3 years to assert some, any, leadership and has mostly failed. They  should - on paper - be more than capable of funding this war to any level they desire, but Russia, with 1/12th the collective GDP of Europe, is out-producing Europe in arms, and 3 years into the war, continues to do so despite Europe’s efforts.

Europe has neither a plan to win the war, nor a plan to end the war. Just an amorphous policy that they will back Ukraine. Now, President Trump, who understands that a basic plan is better than no plan, and that any plan could be used to start negotiations, has frustrated them because he didn’t come to them first. 

Merz’s statement that ‘it will take time’ shows he still doesn't understand Trump.

And Europe has no real plan.

As for the situation on the ground, there is a great deal of confusion - Clausewitz’s “Fog of War” - but “visibility” is enough to see that the Ukrainian army is having more manpower issues, it appears to be a growing problem. Ukraine either needs to find another way to fight this war - not attrition, or find anther source of manpower, or find a way to stop the fighting. And the numbers from the Forbes analysis show a trend that is not going to fixed on its own.

v/r pete