November 7th, 2025

Politics - Ukraine’s MinDef asks Sweden for pilot training

- 1,436 men from 36 African countries, fighting for Russia

Combat Ops - Russian elements confirmed inside Kostiantinivka

- House to house in Pokrovsk

- Russian gains in the south-east 

Weather

Kharkiv

44 and partly cloudy. Mostly sunny Saturday, then mostly cloudy for the next week. Daily lows in the upper 30s, daily highs in the mid 40s. Winds light and variable, 5kts.

Melitopol

52 and sunny. Partly to mostly cloudy for the next week. Daily lows in the low 40s, daily highs in the upper 50s.  Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

48 and mostly cloudy. Partly to mostly cloudy for the next week, rain Tuesday and wednesday. Morning fog possible. Daily lows around 40, daily highs near 50. Winds southerly, 5kts.

Politics 

Ukraine’s MindDef Shmyhal has asked Sweden to begin training Ukrainian pilots to fly the SAAB Gripen as soon as possible.

Ukraine’s ForMin Sybiha commented on the 1,436 citizens of 36 African countries who have been identified as fighting in the Russian army:

"Russia recruits nationals of African countries using a variety of methods. Some are offered money, while others are duped and do not realise what they are signing up for or are forced to do so under duress. Signing a contract is equivalent to signing a death sentence.”

He encouraged them to either refuse recruitment or seek any opportunity to desert or surrender.

"Ukrainian captivity provides a ticket to life and the possibility of returning to your home country.

“I urge all African governments to issue public statements warning their citizens against joining the Russian invasion army. Fighting for Russia in its war of aggression against Ukraine is illegal, immoral, and violates the UN Charter and international law.

Russia attempts to recruit people from other countries, not only nationals of African countries. We will provide more specific information about the regions and countries from which foreign citizens are recruited by the Russian occupation army and then taken captive.

“We once again urge all governments to make every effort to disrupt Russian recruitment schemes and to inform their citizens that such activity is illegal."

Ground Operations 

SUMY AND KHARKIV

Fighting continues north of Sumy but there were no charges in the lines of the would be buffer zone.

Ukrainian army sources note a drop in the number of ground and air and drone attacks in the area; this is probably reflective of Russian assets being committed to support the fight around Pokrovsk.

North of Kharkiv imagery confirmed that Russian forces continue to make small gains as they push south-east along the T2104 roadway.

There were no changes noted along the border immediately north of the Oskil River.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Fighting continued along virtually the entire front line, but there were no confirmed changes.

However, fighting does continue inside Kupyansk; Ukrainian forces (perhaps as much as a brigade, but probably just a battalion sized element)) is reportedly trying to break out of a pocket in north-west Kupyansk and Russian forces are reportedly moving some assets into Kupyansk to try to reduce that Ukrainian controlled pocket. This would seem to negate reporting early in the week that there were fewer than 100 Russian troops left in Kupyansk.

BAKHMUT - TORETSK - POKROVSK

North of Bakhmut, imagery confirmed Russian gains as they pushed up the rail line that runs into Siversk from the south; Russian forces are now less than a mile-and-a-half outside of Siversk in the southern approach.

West of Toretsk, imagery confirmed small Russian gains south-east of Kostiantinivka in Ivanopillia, as well as showing Ukrainian strikes on positions inside south-east Kostiantinivka, confirming anecdotal reports that Russian recon elements are pushing into Kostiantinivka; the location of the strikes indicates Russian recon units have penetrated at least a mile into the city. 

POKROVSK - Imagery confirmed Russian forces south-east of Balahan, a small town just south-east of Myrnohrad. Russian sources claim Russian gains on the T0515 roadway in north-east Pokrovsk as well as east of Pokrovsk. Higher Head Quarters reporting of the number of assaults in the Pokrovsk area can be misleading (a la body counts in Vietnam), but in this case may be relevant: the Ukrainian General Staff noting that Russian activity in and around Pokrovsk now constitutes some 40% of Russian daily activity along the entire 800 mile front.

As for the Pokrovsk pocket, the mouth of the pocket is now at most 4 miles across, and per some reports, less than 2 miles across. 

Russian forces continue to flow into the city from the south and south-west and other reporting suggests that the fight in the city has devolved into a series of isolated small unit fights - house to house, with the many small Ukrainian elements isolated from one another and being reduced by Russian combined drone - artillery - infantry attacks.

South of Pokrovsk, in the terrain north of the Vovcha River, there were no confirmed changes, but reporting suggests Russian forces are still filling in would-be salients and straightening lines, and that they are slowly moving northward in the open farmland north of Dachne.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Fighting continues along virtually the entire front line stretching southward from the Vovcha River, but there were no confirmed changes.

The Russian MOD claimed that Russian forces had full control over Uspenivka (pictures of Russian troops at ease in the town center seem to confirm this), 9 miles north-east of Hulyaipole. Reporting also suggests Russian forces have pushed through Uspenivka and are pressing on the next two towns: Nove and Novousoenivske. If accurate, this improves Russian positioning for an assault on Hulyaipole.

While not mentioned in any of today’s reporting, the town just north of Uspenivka, Pavlivka, would almost certainly have been taken before Russian forces reached Uspenivka. These two towns are of note as yesterday the UGS made a point of saying they were not held by the Russians.

Fighting continues west of Orkihiv, with Russian forces attacking into Stepnohirsk and southern Prymorske, but there were no confirmed changes to the front lines. 

Fighting was again reported near the Antonovsky bridge (upriver from Kherson city), and there are also reports of Russian recon elements raiding across the river and striking Ukrainian troop positions, but there are no specific details.

Air and Maritime Operations

During the night of November 6th-November 7th Russian forces launched at least 128 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or otherwise defeated with EW, 94 drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk and Kherson oblasts.

Casualties reports (incomplete as of midday) included at least 1 killed and 11 wounded civilians.

RuAF tacair struck 10 towns.

Ukrzaliznytsia - which operates Ukrainian railroads, cited “security issues” in announcing that they are temporarily closing  (ostensibly “until further notice”) lines from Husarivka to Slovensk and Kramatorsk, as well as Bantysheve and Kramatorsk, and Slovyansk and Raihordok; all these lines are north-west of Bakhmut, all within 25 miles of the front lines, as Russian drones continue to strike railways in the “near rear.”

During the night of November 5th-November 6th Ukrainian drones struck the Volgograd Oil Refinery (200 miles east of Ukraine) and the Kostroma Thermal Power Plant (175 miles north-east of Moscow); fires were reported at both sites but there is no independent damage assessment.

During the night of November 5th-November 6th Russian forces launched at least 135 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or otherwise defeated with EW, 108 drones.

Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Ivano-Frankivsk, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

Casualties reports (incomplete as of midday) included at least 1 killed and 11 wounded civilians.

RuAF tacair struck 12 towns.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   July8 Aug8 Sep9 Oct8 Nov6 Nov7

Brent      94.71    70.44 66.90 67.03 66.18 63.99 63.86

WTI     92.10    68.65 64.29 63.26 62.48 60.12 59.94

NG       3.97         3.35 3.06 3.12 3.44 4.32 4.33

Wheat     8.52          5.49 5.18 5.22 5.06 5.47 5.32

Ruble     85          78.47 79.74 84.03 81.28 81.11 80.95

Hryvnia 28.6 41.80 41.39 41.23 41.48 42.02 41.89

Urals 91.66 64.07 63.17 60.12 61.15 58.11 56.56

ESPO 94.52 71.58 68.63 68.32 66.74 62.94 65.18

Sokol 99.31 64.38 62.57 62.97 61.91 60.61 60.71

The Ukrainian rapeseed and sugar beet harvest is complete, and with it virtually the entire harvest is finished. The Ministry of Economy and Agriculture provide the following totals:

43,630,100 tons harvested on 9,301,700 hectares (23 million acres).

wheat - 22,822,900 tons

barley - 5,372,400 tons 

peas – 660,700 tons 

corn - 13,746,800 tons

sunflower - 8,725,800 tons

soybean - 4,305,700 tons

rapeseed - 3,320,900 tons

sugar beets - 7,949,300 tons

Thoughts

A word of warning about the UGS assault counts, an assault is not defined, and can mean anything from 2-3 men to a company or a battalion. Further, the wording the UGS uses is deliberately vague, to prevent tactically relevant data from getting out and possibly benefitting Russian forces. The result is that you can’t be certain that a comparison is “apples to apples.” Nevertheless, there is clearly, by all other accounts, a sharp increase in Russian activity, and some reports suggest that the Russian army is, in fact, committing some of its strategic reserve into the Pokrovsk area, presumably in an effort to bring this particular battle to a successful close.

At the same time there have been repeated comments that the Ukrainian army has only a small strategic reserve which is being held near Kyiv in the event of some catastrophe. These two data points together - if accurate - would suggest that the Ukrainian situation around Pokrovsk will continue to deteriorate, and do so rapidly.

If so, and I have to assume that the UGS is in possession of accurate tactical and operational intelligence, the UGS will need to withdraw forces from the Pokrovsk pocket in the near term. One indicator that Kyiv is considering a withdrawal from the pocket would be an uptick in reporting on extreme Russian casualties.

One interesting - and perhaps disturbing - report comes from President Zelenskyy who commented that “Inside the city itself [Pokrovsk], according to military data, there are 314 Russian troops."

Besides the unlikely situation that the Army would have exact data (“314”), it is hardly a credible number. The fact is that Russian forces inside Pokrovsk are gaining ground, despite the Ukrainian army’s best efforts. That 314 men - less than a battalion - are winning the fight for Pokrovsk would suggest that they are either supermen, and can take on several brigades of the Ukrainian army, or that the Russian mix of tactics (infantry, artillery, drones and air power) has so outmatched the Ukrainian army that they can’t lose, even with only 314 guys, or, there are so few Ukrainian soldiers left that 314 soldiers can take the city. 

It is hard to look at this as a good statement… 

v/r pete