November 17th, 2025

Politics - 2 x Russian special services “employees” conducted attack in Poland 

Combat Ops - No change around Pokorvsk

- No change around Hulyaipole

Weather

Fog, low clouds and rain continue to impact reconnaissance and strike drone usage. 

Kharkiv

59 and mostly cloudy, gusting to 30. Cloudy for the next week, rain showers tonight, more rain Wednesday and Friday. Daily lows in the 30s, daily highs also in the 30s, at least through Thursday, then a little warmer, temperatures in the 40s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

61 and mostly cloudy, gusting over 20. Rain tonight, Wednesday and Thursday, followed by mostly cloudy weather. Daily lows in the 40s, daily highs in the 50s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

39 and cloudy, gusting to 35. Tomorrow will be partly sunny, but cloud-covered after that for the following week. Rain Friday, Saturday and Sunday, snow possible Monday. Lows tomorrow and Thursday morning in the mid 20s, Thursday afternoon through Monday lows in hte upper 30s, highs in the low 40s. Winds variable, 10-10kts.

Politics 

Poland’s PM Tusk said that the attack on Poland’s railways was carried out by two Ukrainian citizens who are in the employ with Russian “special services.” The two men entered Poland through Belarus and have reentered Belarus following the attack.

Polish investigators suggest that the intent was to derail a train near Pulawy and film the event, with a steel plate being welded to the track to initiate the derailment.

A separate attack took place near Mika, late on the 15th, using C-4 (commonly referred to as plastic explosives), as a train passed over it. In that attack some of the C-4 did not detonate and was recovered by EOD personnel. The train was not damaged by the attack.

Tusk commented:

”This is an unprecedented event. It is possibly the most serious situation concerning the security of the Polish state since the beginning of Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine. A certain line has been crossed.”

Germany’s Finance Minister Klingbeil told China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng that the two countries “should work together to finish the war in Ukraine… China can play a key role.”

He Lifeng answered:

“China will continue to play a constructive role in the political settlement of the Ukraine crisis.”

China is Russia’s main customer for oil, and is still, despite sanctions and promises, still purchasing more than 800,000 barrels of oil per day. China also continues to sell drone parts, duel use technology and other gear to Russia.

Ground Operations 

Correction - Yesterday I noted that Russian forces had taken the town just south-east of Orikhiv, in southern Ukraine; that town is Mala Tokmachka.

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Fighting continues north of Sumy city but there were no confirmed changes to the front lines.

Fighting continues north of Kharkiv city; there were no confirmed changes to the front lines, bur there are unconfirmed reports of Russian forces pushing from south and central Vovchansk into eastern Vovchansk, and some claims that the Ukrainians are having some difficulty countering the Russian tactic, which are using large numbers of drones in concert with artillery to push the Ukrainian forces back.

Along the border, north of the Oskil River, imagery confirmed Russian recon elements have probed in Dvorichanske; the Russian MOD claims that the town is now under Russian control but that cannot be confirmed.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Fighting continues in and around Kupyansk but there were no confirmed changes to the front lines. Russian forces continue to maintain some presence in the city center but Ukrainian forces continue to counter-attack. Fighting was also reported south-east of Kupyansk, and Russian forces claim that they have taken the town of Kurylivka (just west of Pishchane) but this has not been confirmed.

Further south, fighting is reported in a string of towns north-east and east of Borova, but there are no confirmed changes in the front lines.

Further south, fighting continues across the line from the Zherebets River to the Nitrius River, and Russian forces continue to probe into Lyman, but there are no confirmed changes to the front lines.

BAKHMUT - TORETSK - POKROVSK

North-east of Bakhmut Russian sources are claiming gains north-west of Siversk, pushing into the small village of Platonivka, but this has not been confirmed. If accurate, this would put Russian troops in easy direct fire range of the T0513 roadway (less than a half mile), which is the largest ground lines of communication (GLOC) into Siversk. The terrain about a half mile west of Siversk is about 150 feet higher than Siversk itself, but it is flat terrain from Platonivka to the top of that small ridge, making an attack from the west easier than attacking up hill from Siversk. Imagery did confirm Russian recon elements probing into southern Siversk, reaching Tymiriazieva street, the southern-most street in Siversk.

Fighting continues west and south-west of Chasiv Yar, and north-west of Toretsk, but there were no confirmed changes in the front line.

POKROVSK - north-east of Pokrovsk, just outside the Pokrovsk pocket, fighting continues along the line from Shakhove to Nove Shakhove; Ukrainian forces have cleared north of the line of contact (part of the August salient) while Russian forces appear to be making very slow progress in taking Shakhove and imagery confirms Russian control of Ivanivka, next to Nove Shakhove. 

In and around Pokrovsk the “battlefield” is somewhat of a patchwork, with Ukrainian elements holding terrain in several spots, surround by Russian forces. Russian forces just west of Pokrovsk are attempting to push north and east to complete the encirclement, while forces inside Pokrovsk continue to push north and have, at least in small numbers, entered Rivne. Ukrainian observes noted that Russian elements have reached - and essentially are sitting astride - the T0515 roadway that runs into Pokrovsk from the north, and is one of the major GLOCs into the area.

Further south, Ukrainian forces report that they have retaken Novopavlivka. Russian recon elements had probed into the city over the weekend but it was a small recon element (squad sized - perhaps 10 men); the element was forced out of the city.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Fighting continues from the Vovcha River south to the Hulyaipole area but there were no confirmed chains to the line. However, there were multiple Russian probes west and north-west from the general Verbove area, with at least one probe reading the T0401 roadway, the main north-south GLOC into and out of Hulyaipole. Unconfirmed reports claim a number of small Russian gains pushing up to the Vovcha River.

Reports from thfew civilians (estimated to be several hundred) remaining I Hulyaipole is that the city is already being shelled by Russian mortars, less than 2-and-a-half miles away.

Two de ays ago imagery confirmed Russian forces had taken Mala Tokmachka, and further claims today - unconfirmed - noted that Russian forces had pushed through the town and were on the south-east edge of Orikhiv.

At the same time Ukrainian Southern Command spokesman stated that Mala Tokmachka remains under Ukrainian control and that there has been no fighting there for two days. Some is out.clear imagery is needed to sort th

Fighting was again reported near the Antonovskiy bridge, up river from Kherson city. Russian forces also continue to maintain positions on many of the islands in the Dnepr, just east and south of Kherson city.

Air and Maritime Operations

During the night of November 17th-November 18th Russian forces launched at least 4 x Iskander ballistic missiles and 114 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or otherwise defeated with EW, 101 drones. 

Damage was reported in  Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv oblasts, but reprots are incomplete. Power outages were reported in Dnipropetrovsk.

At least 5 civilians were killed and 13 wounded in last night’s strikes.

RuAF tacair struck 7 towns.

Ukrainian reporting from the Hulyaipole area notes that Russian fiber optic drones are now regularly striking Ukrainian electronic warfare assets within 12 kilometers / 7 miles of the front lines, that they recognize that the Russian fiber optic drones can operate up to 20 kilometers behind the liens (12 miles), and this is forcing those assets further to the rear where they are less effective. 

During the night of November 16th-November 17th Russian forces launched at least 2 x Iskander ballistic missiles and 128 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or otherwise defeated with EW, 91 drones. 

Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Odessa and Sumy oblasts. Power outages were reported in Chernihiv, Donetsk, Kharkiv and Odessa oblasts.

Casualties reports include at least 9 civilians killed and 36 wounded in drones and missile strikes.

At least 5 civilians were killed and 13 wounded in last night’s strikes.

RuAF tacair struck 9 towns.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Aug8 Sep9 Oct8 Nov7 Nov17 Nov18

Brent      94.71    66.90 67.03 66.18 63.86 64.57 64.24

WTI     92.10    64.29 63.26 62.48 59.94 60.25 60.02

NG       3.97         3.06 3.12 3.44 4.33 4.42 4.35

Wheat     8.52          5.18 5.22 5.06 5.32 5.32 5.60

Ruble     85          79.74 84.03 81.28 80.95 81.29 81.02

Hryvnia 28.6 41.39 41.23 41.48 41.89 42.07 42.09

Urals 91.66 63.17 60.12 61.15 56.56 55.07 54.94

ESPO 94.52 68.63 68.32 66.74 65.18 65.89 65.70

Sokol 99.31 62.57 62.97 61.91 60.71 60.61 60.46

Thoughts

Two thoughts:

The attempted sabotage of the train raises an interesting question: is Europe, is NATO, at war with Russia? As a smart friend pointed out, you can’t say NATO and Russia are at peace. So, where does that leave everyone? 

The second is this: outside of the official releases, the reporting from Ukraine about the situation in Hulyaipole is grim. The common perception is that the high command has already lost the battle, they just don’t know it yet. Beyond some carping about Gen Syrski, the sense is that the Ukrainian army simply is responding too slowly to some of these developments, that the Russian’s have the initiative, and the Ukrainian General Staff is caught in a vicious cycle of simply reacting to each Russian action. Given the other limits of the Ukrainian army (manpower and training infantry), that will be very difficult to turn around. 

Meanwhile, despite the sanctions, Russian arms manufactures continue to out produce Europe. 

v/r pete