November 20th, 2025

Politics - 1,000 bodies … 32 bodies exchanged 

- Rumors of a peace proposal

- Corruption scandal grows

Combat ops - Ukrainian gains in Kupyansk

- Russian gains in Siversk and near Hulyaipole

Weather

Fog, low clouds and rain continue to impact reconnaissance and strike drone usage; rain will affect off-road mobility. Clouds and rain also continue to limit the commercial imagery that has been used to confirm changes on the battlefield. 

Kharkiv

37 and cloudy. Rain tonight, cloudy through Monday except Saturday afternoon which see some sun. Daily lows in low 40s through Monday, daily h highs in the mid 50s. Winds southerly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

46 and cloudy. Mostly cloudy to cloudy through Monday, rain possible Monday. Daily lows in the 40s; highs will be in the upper 50s to low 60s. Winds south-easterly, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

33 and cloudy, gusting over 30, windchill 22. Rain starting tomorrow, continuing through Sunday night. Cloudy for the next week. A little warmer through the weekend, lows in the upper 30s, highs in the 40s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Politics 

1,000 bodies of fallen Ukrainian soldiers returned to Ukraine by Russia. This brings the total for the year to 15,000 Ukrainian dead turned over to Ukraine from Russia. Ukraine has returned 132 Russian bodies. 

Rumors are circulating of a proposed 28 point peace plan between the US and Russia. The plan, which has been compared to the proposed agreement from Spring 2022, reportedly includes, among other points, ceding of all of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts to Russia, Russia would back out of Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts, and the demarcation line  in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia would freeze as they are, with a DMZ built between the two countries. Ukraine would reduce its armed forces by 50%, would eliminate long range strike weapons, and no foreign troops would be stationed in Ukraine. Ukraine would be free to join the EU, but not NATO. Ukraine would also recognize Russian as an official language and accept the Russian Orthodox Church.

The probe into corruption in Ukraine’s energy sector has apparently dredged up the name of Andriy Yermak, President Zelenskyy’s Chief of Staff (the official name is “Head of the Office of the President,” has been so since February 2020) and commonly referred to as Zelenskyy’s closest advisor. 

The investigation concerns allegations that money designated for defenses for the energy sector were skimmed for political kickbacks. One individual, Tymor Mindich, a close associate of President Zelenskyy (his business partner at Kvartal 95 Studio) left for Israel last week.

Energy Minister Svitlana Hrynchuk and Justice Minister Herman Halushchenko have already been forced out. Rustem Umerov, former Minister of Defense, has been in the US and Turkey heeling to negotiate for the release of POWs, but he has also been implicated; his family currently resides in Florida. 

Yermak (a lawyer by education) and Zelenskyy met in 2011 and reportedly quickly became close friends. Yermak worked on Zelenskyy’s election campaign, and was named Presidential Aide for Foreign Policy shortly after Zelenskyy took office, before taking over as Chief of staff less than a year later.

Yermak is scheduled to meet today with members of the “Servants of the People Party” (Zelenskyy's party) and there have been some calls for his resignation.

Italy’s high court, the Supreme Court of Cassation, has approved the extradition of Serhii Kuznietso to Germany, accused of being one father saboteurs of the Nord Stream pipeline.

Rene Obermann, chairman of the board of Airbus, wants European countries to buy nuclear weapons:

"Our Achilles heel seems to be what Russia threatens us with fairly publicly: That's 500 plus tactical nuclear warheads on Iskander 26 missiles stationed right in front of our door in Kaliningrad, in addition to the newly stationed ones in Belarus… Germany, France, Britain and other willing European member states should agree on a common and staged nuclear deterrence program, including very much so the tactical level. I think that would be a massive sign of deterrence."

Ground Operations

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Fighting continues north of Sumy city but there were no confirmed changes in the front lines.

Fighting continues north of Kharkiv city but there were no confirmed changes in the front lines; there continues to be a distinct difference of opinion as to where exactly lies the front lines, the two versions being almost two miles apart. I’ll keep working that.

Fighting also continues along the border, just inside Ukraine, north of the Oskil River, but there were no confirmed changes in the line

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

There were no confirmed changes in the front line in and around Kupyansk, but there are, again, some gaping inconsistencies that suggest someone is very wrong. There are sources that suggest Ukrainian forces have pushed Russian forces out of most of Kupyansk, and that as of several days ago they were left with just a thin slice of northern Kupyansk; there are also reports that suggest the the Russians have retaken central Kupyansk and pushed south to the center of the city (to the P07 roadway), and that further, Russian engineers are in the city and are clearing mines. 

My own sense is that this is the sum of a several factors: a good deal of troop movement as Ukrainian HQ keeps trying to stiffen the line in some places, resulting in what looks a little like little kid soccer, leaving gaps that seem to suggest rapid Russian gains when a recon team goes deep and gets their picture taken raising a flag; Ukrainian forces - which have clearly demonstrated that they move quicker than Russian forces for 3 years - finding a seam and exploiting it, only to be rolled back several days later;  some gains which really do reflect reality; and some poor reporting up echelon to cover mistakes (happening on both sides), all overlayed with both literal fog, as well as the metaphoric fog of war. The result is it is very confused right now.

Further south, yesterday I noted Ukrainian gains, confirmed on imagery, in the vicinity of Novo Kruhliavka (“NK” - about 9 miles north-east of Borova). Today imagery confirms Russian gains around Borivska Andrivka, which is more than 4 miles south of NK, placing Russian forces just a bit over 2 miles from the Oskil River, over mostly open farmland, with the Ukrainian force 4+ miles north-east of the Russian force, at risk of being cut off.

There were no confirmed changes in the front lines in and around Lyman and the Nitrius River.

BAKHMUT - TORETSK - POKROVSK

North-east of Bakhmut, imagery confirms Russian recon elements are pushing deeper into Siversk, and Russian sourced reporting claims that Russian forces have taken the bulk of the fixed defenses just east of the city; but there are no confirmed changes to the front line. Ukrainian forces still hold the ridge line just west of the city. Unconfirmed reporting does suggest Russian forces just west of Platonivka (3 miles north-west of Siversk) have closed to less than a half mile of the T0513 roadway, one of the major GLOCs into Siversk.

There are also unconfirmed reports of Russian gains about 6 miles north of Bakhmut, taking a large farm that sits just north of the E40 roadway. 

West and south-west of Chasiv Yar / North-west of Toretsk, there are reports of continued Russian probes into Kostiantinivka, but no changes to the front lines.

Heavy fighting continues north-east of Pokrovsk, beyond the Pokrovsk pocket, as well as in the Pokrovsk pocket itself, with multiple reports of Russian attacks and recon probes; imagery confirms that Russian recon elements have penetrated into northern Pokrovsk but there are no confirmed changes to the front lines or to the overall tactical situation. 

Further south fighting continues, and recon probes keep pushing out, with one being confirmed in the north-west corner of Novopavlivka, but again, no confirmed changes in the line.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Fighting continue along this entire front, with credible but unconfirmed gains suggesting Russian forces continue to make significant gains.  There are claims of Russian gains around Tykhe (about 18 miles north of Hulyaipole), and Russian forces appear to be expanding their holdings around Nachaivka. Further south, Russian forces appear to have pressed west and reached Zelene - probably just several recon teams, on the Haichur River, about 4 miles north-west of Hulyaipole. Taking Zelene would allow follow-on attacks on Hulyaipole behind the standing defensive perimeter.

Fighting was also reported in the vicinity of the Antonovskiy bridge, on the Dnepr river, but there were no details provided. 

Air and Maritime Operations

During the night of November 19th-November 20th Russian forces launched at least 136 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or otherwise defeated with EW, 106 drones. 

Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Sumy oblasts. 

There are no casualty reports yet today.

RuAF tacair struck 5 towns.

Ukrainian drones struck a Russian oil refinery in Ryazan oblast, (about 100 miles south-east of Moscow) and another at Ilskii (about 90 miles east of the Kerch Strait). There are no independent damage reports. 

Concerning the 4 x ATACMS fired into Russian on the 18th, commercial imagery suggests the targets were Baltimor airfield near Voronezh (about 100 miles north-east of Kharkiv, Ukraine) as well as the nearby Pogonovo training ground. The airfield is the base for the 47th Composite Guards Aviation Regiment, which flies SU-34 “Fullback” strike aircraft. 

During the night of November 18th-November 19th Russian forces launched at least 1 x Iskander ballistic missile, 40 x Kh-101 cruise missiles, 7 x Kalibr cruise missiles, and 476  x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or otherwise defeated with EW, 34 KH-101 cruise missiles, all 7 Kalibr cruise missiles and 442 drones. 

Damage was reported in  Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Ivano-Frankivsk, Khakriv, Kherson, Khmelnitskyi, Kyiv, Lviv, Sumy,  and Ternopil oblasts. Damage to elements of the power grid were reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kherson and Sumy, and power outages were reported across most of the country.

At least 28 civilians were killed and 139 wounded in last night’s strikes. Reports from first responders are still coming in.

RuAF tacair struck 8 towns.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Aug8 Sep9 Oct8 Nov7 Nov19 Nov20

Brent      94.71    66.90 67.03 66.18 63.86 63.09 64.07

WTI     92.10    64.29 63.26 62.48 59.94 58.99 59.77

NG       3.97         3.06 3.12 3.44 4.33 4.53 4.48

Wheat     8.52          5.18 5.22 5.06 5.32 5.52 5.55

Ruble     85          79.74 84.03 81.28 80.95 80.62 80.06

Hryvnia 28.6 41.39 41.23 41.48 41.89 42.10 42.19

Urals 91.66 63.17 60.12 61.15 56.56 54.58 54.92

ESPO 94.52 68.63 68.32 66.74 65.18 61.93 59.50

Sokol 99.31 62.57 62.97 61.91 60.71 61.34 60.24

Thoughts

The general feeling on the rumored peace proposal is that Ukraine can’t accept it and Russia won’t accept it… we shall see.

The issue of the corruption schedule, however, throws everything under a different light: the reading through various reports leaves me wondering, as there are all sorts of arguments as to who might be involved, and who must be involved. It’s bad enough that the Ukrainian energy minister’s seat is now empty, as they struggle to keep the lights on. Meanwhile, the corruption scandal is reaching into the office of the President. How far it reaches remains to be seen.

If I were a cynic I would offer that if Zelenskyy is involved in the scandal, maybe he needs a peace agreement, no matter the details…

v/r pete