November 4th, 2025

Politics - More Storm Shadow and Patriot Missiles for Ukraine

Combat Ops - Some Ukrainian gains

- Pokrovsk situation appears to be deteriorating 

Weather

Kharkiv

52 and mostly cloudy. Partly to mostly cloudy through Thursday, then mostly sunny through the weekend. Daily lows in the upper 30s, daily highs in the 40s. Winds light and variable, 5kts.

Melitopol

53 and partly cloudy. Mostly cloudy tomorrow, then mostly Sunny through Saturday. Daily lows in the 40s, daily highs in the upper 50s.  Winds easterly, 5kts.

Kyiv

52 and cloudy. Mostly cloudy until Saturday, and then some clearing. Daily lows in the low 40s, daily highs in the upper 40s to low50s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Politics 

The UK has provided more Storm Shadow missiles (number not given) to Ukraine. Storm Shadow, an air to surface missile, originally designed for NATO aircraft, are being launched by modified UAF SU-24 Fencers. Storm Shadow has a range of 300nm, and 990lb warhead.

Germany has provided Ukraine with additional PATRIOT missiles and related gear, but no specifics were stated.

Ground Operations

Overall, the situation in Pokrovsk continues to evolve in favor of the Russians, as more Russian forces push into the city from the south and west. 

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Fighting continues north of Sumy, but there were no confirmed changes in the front lines.

North of Kharkiv imagery from the 2nd showed Russian gains in south and west Vovchansk, pushing along the Vovcha River and taking several square miles of land some time during the last few days of October and the first of November. As you will recall, recent cloud cover and rain has prevented imagery that independently confirms gains and losses of positions at various spots along the front lines.

There were no changes along the border, immediately north of the Oskil River

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Fighting continues in and around Kupyansk. Imagery confirmed Ukrainian gains immediately north of Myrne (Just north-west of Kupyansk, with Ukrainian elements pushing down the P-79 roadway from the north-west, creating a narrow salient (perhaps 200 meters wide and a 1,000 meters long) that reaches to the northern edge of Kupyansk itself. Meanwhile, the Russian positions inside Kupyansk itself have not changed.

Fighting continues further south, east of the Oskil, along the length of the line of contact, but there were no confirmed changes.

BAKHMUT - TORETSK - POKROVSK

Fighting continues around Siversk but there were no confirmed changes to the front lines.

South-south-west of Siversk about 12 miles, Russian forces have pushed into the small village of Vasiukivka (population about 600 people before the war), located about a half mile west of the T0513 roadway. There are unconfirmed claims of Russian gains just a few miles south of Siversk as well.

West of Toretsk imagery confirmed Russian gains near the town of Pleshchiivka and unconfirmed reporting noted further gains in that general area, and there is an assortment of reporting as to Russian recon probes into Kostiantinivka.

Further west, Russian and Ukrainian forces both had a series of confirmed gains in the area of the August salient (east of Dobropillya) as well as in the general Pokrovsk area.

POKROVSK

Both Russian and Ukrainian forces picked up ground around Pokrovsk. 

Russian forces had confirmed gains both in Rodynske (north of the pocket) and in Myrnohrad (on the east side of the pocket, and at multiple spots inside Pokrovsk. Ukrainian forces note that more Russian elements continue to probe into Pokrovsk, but these elements are not entering and leaving, they are entering and remaining, setting up observation positions and firing positions, and further, that drone operations teams have begun to move into Pokrovsk as well. Russian forces have also been seen in Rivne, on the north-east corner of Pokrovsk, which would place them within 3 miles of Russian forces in Rodynske.

Russian forces are also, reportedly, seeing to the evacuation of the remaining civilians inside Pokrovsk; how many remain is unknown, but estimates have ranged from 600 to 1,300.

At the same time, Ukrainian forces have gained ground in what little remains of the August salient, have pushed through Dorozhnie, and are now pressing into eastern Rodynske, which should force Russian forces in that area to redirect, which should at least slow the closing of the “jaws” of the pocket.

Ukrainian SOF elements are now said to be operating in and around Pokrovsk, and have been given the task of keeping open a section of the H-32 roadway (also known as the T0504 and H-20 roadway), which is still being used to supply the Ukrainian forces in Myrnohrad from stockpiles in Pokrovsk.

There is also a fight for the T0515 roadway that runs north, past the west side of Rodynske. The Ukrainian General Staff insists the road remains open; Russian drone operators are using drones to strike vehicles on the road.

South-west of Pokrovsk, in the general area between Pokrovsk and the Vovcha River, there were multiple claims of Russian gains but there were no confirmed changes in the front line. There are, however, credible reports that Russian forces in the area north of the Vouch River, and east of Filiia, are pushing into open terrain, closing out small pockets and straightening lines.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Fighting continues south of the Vovcha - from the Vovcha river to the area just north of Hulyapole, but there were no confirmed changes in the line.

Fighting also continues south and west of Orikhiv, all the way to the Dnepr River, but there were no confirmed changes in the front lines.

Air and Maritime Operations

During the night of November 3rd-November 4th Russian forces launched at least 1 x Iskander ballistic missiles, 6 x S-300 ballistic missiles and 130 x Shahed drones. The UAF report on their shoot downs was incomplete as of midday.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, and Sumy oblasts. 

Casualties reports (incomplete as of midday) included at least 1 dead civilian and 11 wounded civilians.

RuAF tacair struck 10 towns.

Drones strikes (Ukrainian drones) have been reported at multiple sites inside Russia in the last 18 hours: Chemical plant in Sterlitamek, electricity substation near Volgograd, electricity substation near Kursk, in occupied Luhansk, oil refinery in Nizhniy Novgorod, 

Details have not yet been reported.

During the night of November 2nd-November 3rd Russian forces launched at least 3 x Kinzhal ballistic missiles, 4 x Iskander ballistic missiles, 5 x S-300 ballistic missiles and 138 x Shahed drones. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated by EW, 1 Kinzhal missile and 115 Shahed drones, targeting the power grid.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, and Mykolaiv oblasts. Blackouts across most of Donetsk.

Casualties reported included at least 7 dead civilian and 13 wounded civilians.

RuAF tacair struck 8 towns.

The Ukrainian MOD report that the RuAF dropped 5,328 FABs (Russian analog to the JDAM) during the month of October, the most of any month of the war, and the total for 2025 to date is more than 40,000, which is more than the total dropped in 2023 or in 2024.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   July8 Aug8 Sep9 Oct8 Nov3 Nov4

Brent      94.71    70.44 66.90 67.03 66.18 64.71 64.09

WTI     92.10    68.65 64.29 63.26 62.48 60.91 60.18

NG       3.97         3.35 3.06 3.12 3.44 4.18 4.21

Wheat     8.52          5.49 5.18 5.22 5.06 5.42 5.45

Ruble     85          78.47 79.74 84.03 81.28 80.80 81.11

Hryvnia 28.6 41.80 41.39 41.23 41.48 42.03 42.08

Urals 91.66 64.07 63.17 60.12 61.15 58.43 58.63

ESPO 94.52 71.58 68.63 68.32 66.74 66.87 66.69

Sokol 99.31 64.38 62.57 62.97 61.91 61.17 61.22

Despite the announcement that a number of small Chinese refineries would no longer buy ESPO (Eastern Siberia Pacific Ocean pipeline) oil, ESPO price in Shandong was quoted as above on November 3rd.

Thoughts

The situation in Pokrovsk has become the focus of most of the reporting on Ukraine, and Kyiv is inciting that they have the situation under control: it’s serious but they have stopped the Russians.

While the above is the basic review of the tactical situation around Pokrovsk, a review of unofficial Ukrainian reports support the assessment that the Russians are gaining the upper hand. And, as the source gets closer to Pokrovsk, it sounds more dire.

The commentary from Ukrainians who are, or have until recently been in the city is a dismal, with commentary from Ukrainians once again noting that Ukrainians forces are taking casualties and falling back and are unable to collect their dead.

At the same time, it’s worth noting that there is a small but growing chorus of “things done wrong” in Pokrovsk. They are what you would expect them to be, but are worth repeating: 

• HQ reacted too slowly to the developing situation in July and August, 
• The less important success in squeezing the August salient covered up the situation in Pokrovsk
• Brigade commanders were / are lying up the chain of command as to losses and what terrain they hold
• Russian air control on top of Ukrainian manpower shortages

This results in the worry among the bloggers, some of whom are in uniform, in Pokrovsk, that if it becomes clear that Ukrainian forces cannot keep the open the  Pokrovsk pocket, the order to withdraw must not be delayed.

Interwoven in these reports, official and unofficial, the key point keeps rising up: there are simply not enough soldiers - infantry - to readily sustain a position under sustained Russian attack. Particularly given Russian control of the air and the increased use of FAB “smart bombs.” Unless the Ukrainian forces can shift the position from Russian “air control” over the battlefield to Ukrainian “air denial,” Ukraine will lose Pokrovsk. And even they reimpose air denial, if they don’t have enough riflemen, they will probably lose the city. 

v/r pete