November 6th, 2025

Politics - Former NATO SECGEN Rasmussen comments on the war

- President Trump: Putin asked for help in ending war

Combat Ops - Most of Pokrovsk in Russian control

- Marginal changes elsewhere

Weather

Kharkiv

46 and mostly cloudy. Partly to mostly cloudy for the next week, except Saturday, which should be sunny. Daily lows in the upper 30s, daily highs in the mid 40s. Winds light and variable, 5kts.

Melitopol

51 and partly cloudy. Partly to mostly cloudy for the next week. Daily lows in the low 40s, daily highs in the upper 50s.  Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

50 and cloudy. Partly to mostly cloudy for the next week. Morning fog possible. Daily lows around 40, daily highs near 50. Winds variable, 5kts.

Politics 

Former NATO Secretary General Anders Rasmussen (SecGen from 2009 - 2014, Danish Prime Minister 2001 - 2009) commented on the Ukraine - Russia War.

"We must help the Ukrainians defend themselves against Russian missiles and drones by building an air shield that will help Ukrainians shoot down Russian missiles and drones. NATO countries bordering Ukraine could be the location for a NATO air defense and missile system.”

He called for a European force in Ukraine before a ceasefire.

"If we don't make significant changes in strategy, we will be looking at the possibility of an endless war. Putin has no incentive to engage in peace talks as long as he thinks he can win on the battlefield. Changes in speed and thinking are needed.”

He also advocates for Germany toe provide Ukraine with Taurus missiles and for resuming the discussion of US Tomahawks being provide to Ukraine.

"This will send a clear signal across the Atlantic and put pressure on the White House. Germany has a strong interest in forcing Putin to start peace talks... 'Taurus' is the means to do that.”

He also called for using frozen Russian assets.

"We need to unfreeze 150 billion euros [$175 billion] of frozen Russian assets in Euroclear and use these assets as a basis for a loan to purchase weapons and, hopefully, begin reconstruction.” 

President Trump commented that President Putin asked him for help in ending the war:

"I spoke to him [Putin] two weeks ago, and he said, 'We've been trying to settle that war for 10 years. We weren't able to do it. You got to settle’.”

Ground Operations

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Imagery confirmed marginal Russian gains at several spots along the perimeter of the would-be buffer zone, and also confirmed Russian forces still control Oleksiivka, due north of Sumy City. (Note: there is commentary below on Oleksiivka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast - there are multiple town names across Ukraine that appear in several (or many) oblasts.)

Imagery also confirmed that Russian forces did indeed make gains in southern Vovchansk (north-east of Kharkiv City), as was speculated earlier, pushing down the eastern section of the T2104 roadway, and may have reached the southern edge of the city.

There were no changes to the lines just north of the Oskil river, along the border.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

There are no confirmed changes in the situation in or around Kupyansk. However, a Ukrainian regimental commander claimed that Ukrainian forces had cleared western Kupyansk (Russian forces had no significant presence in eastern Kupyansk (east of the river). If the commander is correct, this is a significant tactical gain for the Ukrainians and would force the Russians to realign forces to regain that terrain, as they need Kupyansk in order to take control of the terrain east of the Oskil River, down to the Donets River; control of that terrain hinges on control of Kupyansk.

That said, the various blog sites do not support the commander’s statement, so we shall see.

Further south there are a series of claims and counter claims as to troops advancing but there are no confirmations of any of these claims.

BAKHMUT - TORETSK - POKROVSK

Fighting continues north, east and south of Siversk, but there were no confirmed changes to the front lines.

West of Toretsk, south of the Kleban Byk Reservoir, imagery confirmed small Russian gains around Katerynivka. Ukrainian forces have been holding terrain in the town of Katerynivka (despite the obvious Russian squeeze on the lines of communication), but Russian forces continue to strike at the Ukrainian position. The Ground Lines of Communication (GLOC) are essentially cut and resupply has apparently been through a combination of small boats across the reservoir, drones, and light vehicles, despite Russian direct fire and drone activity. 

Further west, north-east of Pokrovsk, imagery confirmed Ukrainian forces made gains north-east, and west of Shakhove, as they continue to squeeze what remains of the August salient, in an effort to put pressure on Russian forces immediately south, which are trying to close the Pokrovsk pocket. Ukrainian forces are in a good position to circle Russian elements in Shakhove. 

POKROVSK - the fight continues. North of the Pokrovsk pocket imagery confirmed Russian gains in Rodynske, showing Russians near the center of town pushing to the western edge of the town and reaching the T0515 roadway, the key GLOC from the north that runs into Pokrovsk and the Pokrovsk pocket.

There is a good deal of conflicting reporting; imagery of the area doesn’t show definitive changes in the line in the last day. The latest maps and commentary suggest that the mouth of the pocket remains roughly 3 to 5 miles across, and that the Russian push into Rivne (immediately  north-east of Pokrovsk, at the mouth of the Pokrovsk pocket) was a raid and that those forces pulled back and did not try to hold the position, though this is not a universal position; some sources suggest that the gap may be less than 3 miles and that Ukrainian forces have begun exfiltrating in small numbers.

Inside Pokrovsk itself, again there is no confirming imagery but reports suggest that fighting is now concentrated on three residential areas of the city, that in two of them (near the city center and on the east side of the city) Russian forces are clearly in control, and only in the residential area on the north-west edge of the city has the Russian advance slowed. One estimate suggests Russian forces now control 90% of the city.

There were no changes to the lines south of the Pokrovsk area, north of the Vovcha River, though anecdotal reporting continues to support the assessment that Russian forces are working to fill in the various pockets, and straighten the lines in this area.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

South of the Vovcha River Ukrainian and Russian forces appear to be engaged in a nasty fight for the town of Olesiivka, with each side continuing to trade control of portions of the town. As of the 4th, Ukrainian forces controlled most of the town and Russian forces appear to have been pushed back to the south edge. Oleksiivka is a small village (perhaps 30 houses) located in the middle of perhaps 20 square miles of otherwise empty, manicured farmland; there is no strategic or operational reason for this fight at this site, except that it is someplace to fight.

Fighting continued along the rest of the front line in the south but there were no confirmed changes to the line. Fighting was again noted near the Antonovsky bridge, and again there were no details.

Air and Maritime Operations

During the night of November 5th-November 6th Russian forces launched at least 135 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or otherwise defeated with EW, 108 drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Ivano-Frankivsk, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

Casualties reports (incomplete as of midday) included at least 1 killed and 11 wounded civilians.

RuAF tacair struck 12 towns.

During the night of November 4th-November 5th Ukrainian drones hit a power substation near Vladimir City (100 miles east of Moscow), and the Thermal Power Plant in Oryol Oblast (50 miles north-east of the Ukrainian border, 200 miles north-east of Kyiv, . Extent of the damage is not known.

During the night of November 4th-November 5th Russian forces launched at least 80 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or otherwise defeated with EW, 61 drones; targets were related to the power grid and port infrastructure.

Damage was reported in  Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, and Sumy oblasts; parts of Zaporizhzhia were without power.

Casualties reports (incomplete as of midday) included at least 6 wounded civilians.

RuAF tacair struck 8 towns.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   July8 Aug8 Sep9 Oct8 Nov5 Nov6

Brent      94.71    70.44 66.90 67.03 66.18 64.35 63.99

WTI     92.10    68.65 64.29 63.26 62.48 60.44 60.12

NG       3.97         3.35 3.06 3.12 3.44 4.34 4.32

Wheat     8.52          5.49 5.18 5.22 5.06 5.50 5.47

Ruble     85          78.47 79.74 84.03 81.28 81.32 81.11

Hryvnia 28.6 41.80 41.39 41.23 41.48 42.08 42.02

Urals 91.66 64.07 63.17 60.12 61.15 58.60 58.11

ESPO 94.52 71.58 68.63 68.32 66.74 66.24 62.94

Sokol 99.31 64.38 62.57 62.97 61.91 61.30 60.61

Thoughts

It seems fairly certain that Pokrovsk is falling, and fairy quickly.

At the same time, there are several reports circulating that stress Russian gains in Pokrovsk have come in the wake of tremendous Russian losses, though my suspicion is that much of this is propaganda. Reporting suggests that the Russian army has 12 brigades or regiments (which are organized differently but have roughly the same combat power) in the general Pokrovsk area: in or around Pokrovsk, attacking the Pokrovsk pocket from the east, or north of the pocket - attacking either the pocket or Rodynske.

Assuming their forces are manned roughly at 80% strength (2,000 infantry per unit, plus attached support elements), this would put about 24,000 “trigger pullers” in the fight. Total numbers are greater, I’m just concerned with the number of infantry.

Ukrainian forces have similar numbers of forces, though there is a good argument that there are fewer trained "trigger pullers” on the Ukrainian side. 

There are a series of casualty claims from both sides, most of which seem quite over the top. One claim suggested higher Russian casualty rates, when pulled apart, worked out to higher casualty rates than the Somme, so, it can be discounted.

That said, the propaganda machines on both sides are "working overtime,” leaving much of this in a deliberate fog. Not to be cynical, but propaganda is propaganda. In the past Ukrainian reports of Russian losses have risen to remarkable numbers when Ukrainian forces are about to withdraw from a city, a sort of compensation for the loss of the position (Russians have done it as well). I suspect that is partly what is happening here.

All that said, the situation in Pokrovsk is deteriorating; the key now is to hold the pocket openand support Ukrainian forces inside the pocket until such time as they are withdrawn.

v/r pete