November 17th, 2025

Politics - Sabotage of a rail line in Poland

- France sells Rafales to Ukraine

- EC on financing Ukraine for 2026 and 2027

Combat Ops - Ukrainian forces retake center of Kupyansk

- Russian Forces advance on Hulyaipole, take Mala Tomchaka

Weather

Fog, low clouds and rain continue to impact reconnaissance and strike drone usage. 

Kharkiv

51 and cloudy, gusting to 20. Cloudy for the next week, rain possible Wednesday through Saturday. Tomorrow warm, in the 50s until after dark, then temperatures dropping, for the rest of the week lows will be in the 30s, highs in the low 40s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

54 and mostly cloudy, gusting over 20. Cloudy all week, rain on Wednesday and Thursday. Tuesday warm, lows in the 50s, highs in the 60s, then cooler, Wednesday and Thursday will see lows in the 40s and highs in the 50s. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Kyiv

46 and cloudy, gusting to 20. Cloudy for the week, except Wednesday, which will be sunny. Rain or snow possible next weekend. Lows tomorrow in the 40s, but Wednesday will dip into the mid 20s, with highs in the mid 30s. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Politics 

A set of railroad tracks were damaged in an explosion on Sunday in Poland; The Polish Defense Minister has labeled it as sabotage. The tracks are on the Warsaw - Lublin line, near the town of Garwolin, and the entire line is now being inspected. 

Prime Minsiter Tusk:

Unfortunately, the worst suspicions have been confirmed. An act of sabotage occurred on the Warsaw-Lublin route (Mika village). An explosive device detonated and destroyed the railway track. Emergency services and the prosecutor's office are working on the scene. Damage was also found on the same route, closer to Lublin.

“Blowing up the rail track on the Warsaw-Lublin route is an unprecedented act of sabotage targeting directly the security of the Polish state and its civilians. This route is also crucially important for delivering aid to Ukraine. We will catch the perpetrators, whoever they are.”

“Fortunately, no tragedy occurred, but the legal implications are very serious.”

President Zelenkyy met with President Macron of France and they signed an agreement for the purchase of 100 Rafale fighters and air to air and surface to air systems, to include the SAMP/T system. The aircraft delivery is not expected to be complete before 2035.

Zelenskyy on the agreement:

"Ukraine will be able to receive 100 Rafale F-4 aircraft, very capable French radars, 8 SAMP-T air defence systems with 6 launchers each. These may sound like technical details to some, but to us they matter. Every launcher, all of these things, means protecting more lives."

The EC estimates Ukraine will need €71.7 billion ($83.2 billion) in external financing in 2026, of which €51 billion ($59.1 billion) will be for defense and security operations (the war). In 2027 the EC estimates Ukraine will need €64 billion ($74.2 billion), with €31.8 billion ($36.9 billion) for defence and security, a total of $111.1 billion for defense over the next two years.

European Commission (EC) President von der Leyen has proposed three means to provide financial assistance to Ukraine: 

"Based on these guiding principles, we have identified three main options, i.e. support to be financed by member states via grants, a limited recourse loan funded by the Union borrowing on the financial markets, or a limited recourse loan linked to the cash balances of immobilised assets” [frozen Russian assets]

"Taking this forward will allow us to maintain pressure on Russia, deny it the hope of victory, and lay the foundations for the suspension of hostilities and the groundwork for long-awaited peace negotiations.”

“It will now be key to rapidly reach a clear commitment on how to ensure that the necessary funding for Ukraine will be agreed at the next European Council meeting in December. Clearly, there are no easy options.

Greenpeace reported that France has been sending uranium to Russia for reprocessing.

France’s state run Electricite de France (EDF) has a €600 million ($700 million) multi year agreement with Rosatom for reprocessing uranium.

Ground Operations

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS 

Fighting continues north of Sumy city but there are no confirmed changes in the front lines.

Fighting continues north of Kharkiv but there were no confirmed changes in the front lines.

Fighting continues just inside Ukraine, north of the Oskil river, but there were no confirmed changes to the front lines.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Ukrainian forces have made substantive gains inside Kupyansk city, retaken a section of the center of the city, and appear to have isolated a Russian element (size unknown) inside the city and that some Russian elements have withdrawn to the northern edge of the city. 

Fighting continues further south, but there were no confirmed changes to the front lines.

BAKHMUT - TORETSK - POKROVSK

Fighting continues north, east and south of Siversk, but there were no confirmed changes of the front lines over the weekend, nor were there any confirmed changes west of Chasiv Yar.

West of Toretsk, north of the Pokrovsk pocket, imagery confirmed Russian forces had moved north of Volodymyrivka, and were also pressing on the east side of Shakhove. Unconfirmed reporting claims that Russian forces also have control of terrain just west of Shakhove, and are attempting to squeeze these two towns between the two Russian forces, though it is not clear what sized forces are in the area.

Further west, the fight for Pokrovsk and the Pokrovsk pocket - Myrhnohrad continues. There are unconfirmed that Russian forces have, as of this morning, cut the last road running into Myrnohrad, and other reporting suggests that as many as 23 Russian regiments and brigades are now engaged into the Pokrovsk - Pokrovsk pocket fight.

Ukrainian forces report that Russian forces have reverted to infiltration in elements of 4 or 5 troops at a time, and noted that there are few movements by vehicle. Multiple Russian probes were reported each day this past weekend, into both Pokrovsk itself into the pocket to the east. The reporting is becoming increasingly unclear, the mixture of multiple small elements pushing into Pokrovsk from the south, west and the north, and pushing into the Pokrosvk pocket from nearly every direction, further compounded by poor weather: rain and heavy fog.

The reason for the change back to small sized elements is that the cities of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad have been largely reduced to ruins, particularly in the last few weeks with the stepped up Russian drone, artillery and bomb strikes, the streets are becoming impossible to pass by large vehicle, and the fight has in any case devolved to house-to-house fighting. Russian forces will also be attempting to use drones and artillery to cut the flow of any support into the city or into the Pokrovsk pocket. However, the fact that the fight has devolved to the house-to-house stage in Pokrovsk means that the rate of change will be very slow going forward, unless the Russians can completely cut the GLOCs into the city.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Imagery confirmed Russian forces have taken Rivnopillia (not quite 6 miles north-north-east of Hulyaipole) and have pushed to the north edge of Zatyshshya (just 2 miles north-east of Hulyaipole). Zatyshshya is a very small (perhaps 20 homes) farming village located on either side of a small agricultural reservoir, with Ukrainian defensive positions on the south side of the reservoirs; it appears the Russian forces stopped on the north side of the reservoir, but there are credible reports of Russian recon elements infiltrating into the immediate area of Hulyaipole.

Just to the north Russian forces continued to attack to the west, toward the T0401 roadway, but there are no confirmed changes in the front lines.

Further to the west, imagery confirmed that Russian forces had pushed into the center of Mala Tokmachka, a town 5 miles south-east of Orikhiv, along the T0815 roadway. The size of the town has varied widely, from 3,000 prior to the war, down to just 200 by the start of 2023. 

Fighting was again reported over the weekend in the vicinity of the Antonovskiy bridge, up river from Kherson City.

Air and Maritime Operations

During the night of November 16th-November 17th Russian forces launched at least 2 x Iskander ballistic missiles and 128 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or otherwise defeated with EW, 91 drones. 

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, and Odessa oblasts. Power outages were reported in Donetsk oblast.

Casualties reports include at least 9 civilians killed and 36 wounded in drones and missile strikes.

At least 5 civilians were killed and 13 wounded in last night’s strikes.

RuAF tacair struck 9 towns.

During the night of November 15th-November 16th Russian forces launched at least 1 x Iskander ballistic missile and 176 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or otherwise defeated with EW, 139 drones.

Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Odessa, and Sumy oblasts. The strikes were focused on energy and transport infrastructure.

There were no casualty reports. 

However, of note, the strike destroyed an Optima-Pharm warehouse, the 3rd strike on one of the company’s warehouses (earlier strikes in August and October). The company estimated that the strike destroyed 20% of Ukraine’s monthly medicine stockpile.

During the night of November 14th-November 15th Russian forces launched at least 3 x Kinzhal ballistics missiles and 135 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or otherwise defeated with EW, 2 Kinzhal missiles and 91 drones.

Damage was reported in 13 cities, not listed.

There was no casualty report.

During the night of November 13th-November 14th Russian forces launched at least 3 x Kinzhal ballistics missiles, 9 x Iskander ballistic missiles, 6 x Iskander cruise missiles, 1 x Zircon cruise missile, and 430 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or otherwise defeated with EW, 2 Kinzhal missiles, 6 Iskander ballistic missiles, 6 Iskander cruise missiles, and 102 drones. The is a high success rate against ballistic missiles.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kyiv, Sumy and Vinnytsia oblasts. Power outages were reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Odessa and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

Casualties reports include at least 9 civilians killed and 36 wounded in drones and missile strikes.

RuAF tacair struck 8 towns.

Last week reports surfaced of Russian intent to produce glide bombs at a rate of 120,00 per year by the end of 2025. Additional reporting suggests Shahed production rates of 30,000 Shahed strike drones per year (a separate report suggested a production rate of 2,700 per month or 32,400 per year).

Russia is producing some 40,000 other advanced drones per year, plus 50,000 fiber optic drones per month.

Ukrainian Deputy PM Kuleba reported on Russian strikes: Since January 2025: 800 strikes on railroads, with more than a billion dollars in damage.

Russia is using thermal imaging cameras to allow for strikes on moving trains.

Other strikes have “knocked out” 60% of Ukrainian natural gas production capacity as of October 2025.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Aug8 Sep9 Oct8 Nov7 Nov14 Nov17

Brent      94.71    66.90 67.03 66.18 63.86 63.82 64.57

WTI     92.10    64.29 63.26 62.48 59.94 59.61 60.25

NG       3.97         3.06 3.12 3.44 4.33 4.53 4.42

Wheat     8.52          5.18 5.22 5.06 5.32 5.44 5.32

Ruble     85          79.74 84.03 81.28 80.95 80.96 81.29

Hryvnia 28.6 41.39 41.23 41.48 41.89 42.02 42.07

Urals 91.66 63.17 60.12 61.15 56.56 53.80 55.07

ESPO 94.52 68.63 68.32 66.74 65.18 60.64 65.89

Sokol 99.31 62.57 62.97 61.91 60.71 60.83 60.61

Thoughts

The push by Ukrainian forces into Kupyansk is a needed morale boost to the Ukrainian army; whether they can hold it, remains to be seen, but for right now, that is a real gain for them.

On the other hand, the Russian gains near Hulyaipole in particular, and near Orikhiv, are serious and the Ukrainian position in the south is beginning to look dire, and again raises the issue of whether there are any reserve elements that can be brought forward to stiffen the line.

v/r pete