November 25th, 2025

Politics - Negotiations continue - maybe an agreement 

Combat Ops - Pokrovsk, Pokrovsk pocket being squeezed

- Russian army gains north of Hulyaipole

Weather

Cloudy and some rain across most of Ukraine, temperatures warmer (40s) most of this week, then into the 30s. Warmer temperatures will keep fields and dirt roads from freezing, forcing most heavier vehicles to use roads.

Kharkiv

42 and cloudy. Cloudy all week. Tomorrow morning in the 30s, then in the 40s through Saturday. Winds south-easterly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

47 and sunny. Cloudy tomorrow and for the next week. Daily lows in the 40s, daily highs in the mid 50s. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

41 and cloudy, gusting to 20. Cloudy all week; rain on Thursday. Temperatures in the 40s through Thursday night, then into the 30s. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Politics

Negotiations continue… 

There is a good deal of reporting on the negotiations in in Geneva, and the latest (shortly after noon EST) is a text from Rustem Umerov, the lead of the Ukrainian delegation, who commented:

“We appreciate the productive and constructive meetings held in Geneva between the Ukrainian and U.S. delegations, as well as President Trump’s steadfast efforts to end the war. 

“Our delegations reached a common understanding on the core terms of the agreement discussed in Geneva.

“We now count on the support of our European partners in our further steps.

“We look forward to organizing a visit of Ukraine’s President to the US at the earliest suitable date in November to complete final steps and make a deal with President Trump.”

President Zelenskyy is now reportedly asking for a meeting with President Trump on Thursday.

Zelensky's chief of staff Yermak: 

"I hope the visit of President Zelensky will take place as soon as possible, because ... it will be help President Trump to continue his historical mission to end this war."

An unnamed US official reportedly aware of the content of the negotiations commented:

"The Ukrainians have agreed to the peace deal. There are some minor details to be sorted out but they have agreed to a peace deal.”

At the same time Secretary of the Army Driscoll reportedly held talks with a Russian delegation on Monday, in Abu Dhabi.

President Trump commented:

"It's not easy, but I think we're going to get there… I think we're getting very close to a deal, we'll find out... I think we're making progress.”

From Romania, Hungarian Foreign Minister Szijjártó (in Romania on an official visit), commented:

”We believe that this 'peace plan' is a huge opportunity to achieve peace. Both Ukrainians and we Europeans have lost far too much because of this war and we don't want to pay an even higher price for a war for which we bear no responsibility.

That's why we are keeping our fingers crossed for President Trump and asking those responsible in Brussels and the leaders of Western Europe not to sabotage the talks. If they had not been sabotaging President Trump's plans so far, President Trump's plan would have succeeded already.”

And from UK PM Starmer

"I welcome some of the developments that have now come forward. I do think we are moving in a positive direction and indications today that in large part the majority of the text, Volodymyr is indicating, can be accepted.”

And from President Macron:

"Finally a chance to make real progress toward a good peace.”

Polish authorities have arrested and charged a third Ukrainian in association with the attempted sabotage of a rail line.

Ground Operations 

SUMY AND KHARIV OBLASTS

Fighting continued north of Sumy City but there were no changes to the front lines.

North-east of Kharkiv Russian forces made gains in western and south-west Vovchansk.

East of Kharkiv, along the border, north of the Oskil River, Ukrainian sources report that Russian forces have seized Odradne, a small farming village of perhaps 35-40 houses.

NORTH OF THE DONETS

The situation in Kupyansk remains confusing. Imagery confirmed Ukrainian positions south-east of the city were better than estimated, with Ukrainian forces holding terrain just east of Pishchane (south-east of Kupyansk), but the situation inside Kupyansk keeps changing from day to day. This would seem to confirm what it seemed last week, that the fighting has devolved to block-to-block, house-to-house fighting. As the Ukrainians appear, for now, to have more forces in Kupyansk (reportedly in excess of a brigade), while the Russian have (again, reportedly) a battalion, the advantage is to the Ukrainians. 

Fighting continued elsewhere in the area but there were no confirmed changes to the front lines.

BAKHMUT - TORETSK - POKROVSK

Imagery confirmed Russian gains around Siversk, with Russian forces taking control of Zvanivka (just south of Siversk) and also confirming Russian forces had pushed into the northern and eastern edge of Siversk; Russian forces now control perhaps a quarter of the city. More importantly, Russian forces have now occupied the fixed Ukrainian defensive positions east of the city. Russian probes were also confirmed in Platonivka (just north-west of Siversk), and Russian forces have taken terrain just west of that small town.

West of Toretsk imagery confirmed Russian gains near Rusyn Yar (west of the T0504 roadway).

Fighting continued north of Pokrovsk and the Pokrovsk pocket but there were no confirmed changes to the front lines, though unconfirmed reports suggest the pocket is effectively closed.

The fight inside Pokrovsk and around the perimeter of the Pokrovsk pocket has slowed to a grind, but the Russians are still making small gains. Imagery confirmed Russian gains in Rodysnke yesterday. There are at least several small pockets of Ukrainian troops holding ground inside Pokrovsk, but they have been bypassed Russian forces. Inside the Pokrovsk pocket reporting is limited but it appears that there has been some Ukrainian movement from the south half of the pocket into the north half. Whether that is a withdrawal or some sort of tactical consolidation remains to be seen. But Ukrainian troop strength in the southern half of the pocket has reportedly decreased.

Total Ukrainian troops strength in the pocket is - very rough estimate - 1,000 troops.

There have been several reports of Russian use of FAB-3000 glide bombs in Myrnohrad. The FAB-3000 (3,000 kg (6,600lbs)) are used to break the very hard bunkers the Ukrainians have built in various cities, taking small (usually 5 - 10 floors) apartment buildings and hardening them with rebar and concrete, so that they can survive direct hits with 155MM artillery rounds and 122MM battlefield rickets. They cannot survive a direct hit by a FAB-3000. 

South and south-west of Pokrovsk Ukrainian military reporting notes that Russian forces have pushed into Novopavlivka, tanking the south edge of the city as smaller elements appear to have circled it and are attacking from the northwest. That represents a change in Russian tactics, but perhaps is an attempt to cut the T0428 roadway that leads into the city from the north. 

Concerning the pocket north of the Vovcha River, north of Dachne, between Filiia and Horikhove (a triangle about 8 miles across and perhaps 3 - 4 miles north to south, there has been very little reporting but it appears that Russian forces have piece by piece begun to occupy that pocket. The pocket is the farmland north of the river, but it serves to point out that the Russians are adhering to some sort of basic SOP in filling in would-be salients and straightening lines.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

South of the Vovcha River, from the river south to Hukyaipole, Russian forces continue to attack west and south-west and continue to gain ground. Ukrainian reporting (from either the General Staff or the Area commands) note that in the past 24 - 48 hours Russian forces have taken 6 small towns north of Hulyaipole - 4 towns along the T0401 roadway, from Vidradne (about 15 miles north of Hulyaipole) to Radisne (about 10 miles north of Hulyaipole), and a series of small towns east of that line. Russian forces just north of this area have pushed out to the Vovcha river in most of these areas. Russian forces also appear to have taken the last few towns east of Hulyaipole. 

Finally, reports are surfacing that Russian recon probes into Hulyaipole began as early as the middle of last week.

Fighting was reported just south of Mala Tokmachka (just south-east of Orikhiv) - which almost certainly equates to Russian forces trying to push into the empty farmland south of the town - while Russian probes continue in the center of the town, but there were no confirmed changes to the front lines, with Russian forces probably holding just a small slice of the town itself.

Further west, Russian forces have probed into Novodanylivka (just south of Orikhiv) but it isn’t clear if they control any part of the town or are still just south of it.

Reports continue of fighting near the Antonovskiy bridge, but as usual there are no details.

Air and Maritime Operations

During the night of November 24th-November 25th Russian forces launched at least 4 x Kinzhal ballistic missiles, 3 x Iskander ballistic missiles, 7 x Iskander cruise missiles, 8 x Kalibr cruise missiles, and 464 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or otherwise defeated with EW, 1 Kinzhal ballistic missile, 3 Iskander ballistic missiles, 5 Kalibr cruise missiles, 5 Iskander cruise missiles, and 438 drones. 

Damage was reported in Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Odessa  Sumy oblasts. Targets included the power grid; there were power blackouts and water disruptions in Kyiv, and a partial blackout in Odessa.

At least 9 civilians killed and 32 civilians were wounded in last night’s strikes. 

RuAF tacair conducted strikes on 10 towns.

During the night of November 24-November 25th Ukrainian drones and missiles struck the Beriev aircraft repair facility in Taganrog, the Sheskaris oil terminal in Novorossiysk, and the Tuapse oil refinery in Krasnodar.

During the night of November 23rd-November 24th Russian forces launched at least 162 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or otherwise defeated with EW, 125 drones. 

Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Odessa and Sumy oblasts; targets included the power grid and port infrastructure 

At least 4 civilian killed and 15 civilians were wounded in last night’s strikes. 

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Aug8 Sep9 Oct8 Nov7 Nov24 Nov25

Brent      94.71    66.90 67.03 66.18 63.86 62.73 62.35

WTI     92.10    64.29 63.26 62.48 59.94 58.21 57.83

NG       3.97         3.06 3.12 3.44 4.33 4.50 4.38

Wheat     8.52          5.18 5.22 5.06 5.32 5.34 5.34

Ruble     85          79.74 84.03 81.28 80.95 78.48 78.92

Hryvnia 28.6 41.39 41.23 41.48 41.89 42.47 42.27

Urals 91.66 63.17 60.12 61.15 56.56 52.81 53.35

ESPO 94.52 68.63 68.32 66.74 65.18 58.44 59.22

Sokol 99.31 62.57 62.97 61.91 60.71 59.42 59.57

Russian state oil and gas revenue for November was 520 billion rubles ($6.6 billion), down 35% from November 2024. Russia state oil and gas revenue for 2025 is now forecast to 8.65 trillion rubles ($109.5 billion), down from earlier forecast of 10.94 trillion ($138.5 billion).

Oil is again being exported from Tuapse, on the Black Sea, after a 2 week suspension following a Ukrainian strike on the refinery.

Thoughts

Well, some progress perhaps on the Trump Peace Plan. Of course, the plan has to be acceptable to Russia, which will undoubtedly involve some sort of further negotiations. It will be interesting to see if anything is released from the meetings in the UAE.

Some interesting and gruesome reports concerning some reported war crimes: none of this is verified, but it has a ring of fidelity: several bloggers have commented that drones striking civilian vehicles is occurring in part as a result of both sides commandeering vehicles that can drive faster than a tank or IFV to move troops to the front lines in as short a time as possible. The result is that drone operators on both sides are targeting any fast moving vehicle. 

Further, drone operators have become the most hated of the enemy (again on both sides) because the drone operators kill “without mercy,” as the thousands of videos show, grenades being dropped on a single soldier laying in a slit trench. Reportedly, the bulk of the incidents of Russian soldiers killing captured Ukrainians has been the killing of soldiers from a drone element, with comments being on the lines of  “they show no mercy, neither will we.” There are fewer reports of Ukrainians killing captured Russians, but there have been a few. 

These remain war crimes. But these soldiers have some rationale to their actions…

v/r pete