July 10th, 2024

Overall 

Ground Operations - Russian gains continue

NATO Summit - 3-4 more years, $43 billion next year

Weather

Kharkiv

93 and partly cloudy. Mostly sunny tomorrow, and the next 5 days. Daily lows in the low 70s, highs in the mid 90s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

95 and mostly cloudy, gusting over 20. Mostly sunny for the next 5 days, lows in the low 70s, highs in upper 9s. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

89 and sunny. Sunny for the next 5 days. Daily lows near 70, daily highs in the low 90s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Ground Operations

North of Kharkiv

Due north of Kharkiv what was termed “heavy” fighting continues immediately north of the village of Hlyboke; there were no confirmed gains by either side, but anecdotal reporting suggests Ukraine forces pushed north and regained a trench line just outside the town.

To the north-east, in the general area of Vovchansk, fighting also continues but there were no confirmed gains. Russian forces appear to be slowly grinding down the Ukrainian stronghold in the center of the town, while Ukrainian forces continue to put pressure on the east end of the town. But, while Ukrainian forces appear to outnumber the Russian forces almost 2 to 1, there is still no indication of a large-scale Ukrainian attack on one of the flanks.

 

Donets River

Fighting continues along the line of contact, but there were no confirmed gains or losses. Two Ukrainian commentators are warning that the Russia forces are on the verge of a breakout and if so, could they could reach the Oskil River.

Bakhmut

Fighting continues north-east, west and south of Bakhmut, but the only noted changes were marginal gains by Russian units in the area of Andrivka, south of Bakhmut.

Fighting continues west of Horlivka; there were no confirmed gains or losses by either side, but there were multiple claims of Russian gains.

Of interest, a detail on the attack several days ago on the Ukrainian garrison near Niu York in which Russian forces used a tunnel to flank the Ukrainian post; it now appears that the tunnel was dug by hand, 90 centimeters (3 feet) wide, about 1,5 meters (5 feet) high, and 3 kilometers (almost 2 miles) long. 

Donetsk City

Fighting continues west of Avdiivka along virtually the enter front line. One Russian blogger is now reporting this fighting as “east of Pokrovsk,” noting that Russian forces are now closer to Pokrovsk than to Avdiivka. There were no confirmed gains, but pro-Ukrainian sites credited the Russians with incremental gains along virtually the entire front.

Russian forces claimed that they had taken the small town of Yasnobrodivka (on the Vovcha River, about 2 miles north-east of Karlivka, as well as a series of other claims about terrain taken, but none of it has been confirmed.

Southwest of Donetsk City Russian forces had small but confirmed gains east of the O-0532 roadway; fighting continues in Heorivka, Krasnohorivka and nearby towns.

Velyka Novosilke and Orikhiv

Fighting was reported across the southern front but there were no confirmed gains or losses on either side.

Dnepr River

Fighting continues around Krynky and on several islands in the Dnepr mouth, but there were no claims of any gains or losses.

Air Operations 

Ukrainian forces conducted drone and missile strikes on Russian energy infrastructure in neighboring oblasts as well as an airfield and an oil terminal. Russian reporting suggests the strike consisted of more than 40 dozens. There were reports of minor damage but no comprehensive damage report yet.

Several Russian missiles - numbered type not specified - struck the Odessa port facility last night, killing two men and damaging a merchant ship and nearby warehouses.

Russian missiles struck Myrhorod airfield yesterday, but there were no damage reports. The Odessa area also reported missiles trikes on various infrastructure items but gave no details.

NATO Summit

The Conferees issued a statement pledging continued support to Ukraine. The statement focused on air defense and more systems were promised: 4 more Patriot batteries and an additional SAMP/T system (which fires the ASTER 30 missile, a very good French system). They also promised additional air defense systems in the near future.

NATO also promised to provide $43 billion (40 billion Euros) in military aid in 2025, to include equipment, training and other services to Ukraine, with 1/2, or $21.6 billion, provided by the US and the rest by the other members of NATO. Italy, which was to provide 1.2 billion Euros ($1.3 billion), later announced that it would increase the amount it was providing to $1.7 billion for 2025.

An unnamed “high ranking NATO official” commented that NATO countries have to settle in for the long haul, that the war may continue for several more years.

"We should all be ready to continue supporting Ukraine even after 2025. We understand that this conflict is unlikely to end in the near future.” 

He further commented that Russia’s economy can endure this for another 3 - 4 years and that Russian society is ready to support that.

NATO leadership was set to approve a new command, headquartered in Wiesbaden, Germany, to coordinate training and equipping the Ukrainian armed forces.

Norway announced that it will transfer 6 x F-16s to Ukraine this summer.

President Zelensky commented that Ukraine needs at least 128 x F-16s.

Secretary of State Blinken announced that the transfer of the first F-16s is underway and then added that “… and Ukraine will be flying operational F-16s this summer.”

So, the F-16s are somewhere and they are going to get there this summer…

Politics 

Belarus and Communist China’s People’s Liberation’s Army (PLA) are engaged in exercise “Attack Falcon,” a series of counter-terrorism training events; yesterday they conducted combined parachute training.

Economic Reporting

Feb 22   Mar 7   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Sep8 Feb8 Apr8 Jun7 Jul9 Jul10

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      90.95   80.93 90.13 80.06 85.19 84.53

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      87.77   75.49 86.13 75.81 81.73 81.35

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15        2.63       1.95 1.83 2.82 2.38 2.37

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      98.11     91.09 92.69 88.77 88.18 87.99

Wheat     8.52       12.94    10.71    6.17        6.00     6.02 5.67 6.40 5.71 5.72

Urals 56.56     74.34    66.28 77.31 67.61 67.61 67.61

ESPO   67.02     80.88     74.85 85.96 74.63 80.98 80.98

Bloomberg reports that Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) privately suggested to the G7 that Saudi Arabia would sell “some or all” of its European debt if the G7 confiscated Russia’s frozen assets. $300+ billion in frozen Russian assets are now held in Europe.

Over the past several years Saudi Arabia has maintained ties with Russia even as it has built ties with Ukraine.

Saudi Arabia is fiscally very conservative and views the seizing of assets of another country as something that would cause a loss of confidence in the global economy and result in reduced stability in the international market place.

Thoughts

The fight continues…

The Wall Street Journal has a report out today that echoes earlier reports about the advances in electronic warfare (EW) over the course of the war. What is of note is that there are a series of US weapon systems that no longer perform “up to spec.” 

For example, the US Excalibur artillery shell, a 155MM artillery shell with an inertial navigation system with GPS update, has been so degraded by Russian EW that it is no longer used. The GMLRS (Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System - the rocket HIMARS launches), the Ground Launched Small Diameter Bombs (GLSDB), and other systems have all suffered degradation in performance since being used in Ukraine. GLSDB performance is reportedly so bad that it, like Excalibur, is no longer being used at all.

This should not be a surprise; Russian EW has always been effective, and Russian engineers quite capable.

There is a more disconcerting piece to this; for decades, and in the US in particular since Desert Storm, there has been a fascination with super weapons, that the next system, the next Wunderwaffe, is going to turn the tide of battle and bring victory. This sort of thing is often “percolates up” to higher headquarters and suddenly miracles are expected.

But, in fact, warfare, like football, is won or lost on the basics, the blocking and tackling - training of troops, sound tactics, sound operational art, basics of logistics, basic numbers. As NATO meets, and leaders talk about a war they expect to last 3 or 4 more years, someone needs to ask whether the strategy going forward is based on fundamentals, or the latest “toys.”

v/r pete