July 3rd, 2024 Happy 248th Tomorrow!!!

Overall 

Ground Operations - Marginal Russian gains continue

Air Operations - Russian Sources claim 7 x UAF aircraft destroyed

Politics - PM Shmyhal out?

Aid - IMF, NATO money

Weather

Kharkiv

93 and sunny. partly cloudy next two days, then sunny through the weekend. Lows around 70, highs in the low 90s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

95 and sunny, gusting over 20. Sunny to Partly cloudy through the weekend. Daily lows around 70, highs in the low 90s. Winds variable, 5-15kts.

Kyiv

82 and cloudy. Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon, Partly cloudy to cloudy for the next three days, more thunderstorms on Friday. Daily lows in the 60s, daily highs in the upper 70s, except Thursday which could hit 90.  Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Ground Operations

North of Kharkiv

Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) reports suggest that the activity noted north-east of Sumy in the last several days was Russian reconnaissance and sabotage and there is less likelihood of a Russian assault across the border in that area - such as is happening due north of Kharkiv.

North-east of Kharkiv Russian forces made confirmed gains inside Vovchansk and there are unconfirmed claims that Russian elements pushed through Vovchask and crossed the Donets River (which forms the southern border of the town).

Donets River

Fighting continues along the line of contact, and there are claims of significant Russian advances south-east of Kupyansk but these have not been confirmed, and are, given the regular performance of Russian units, almost certainly hyperbole.

However, the actions in this area are focused on pushing westward to the map borders of the Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR). According to one estimate Russian forces now control 99% of the land mass of the LPR and they want that last 1%.

South of Kreminna, in the Serebrianske forest, Ukrainian forces continue to make small but real gains and gained several hundred more meters in fighting yesterday.

Bakhmut

Fighting continues north, north-east, west and south of the town, but the only changes appear to be in the vicinity if Chasiv Yar where Russian forces have confirmed gains westward and appear to have reached the Donets canal, as well as having taken control of the small town of Kalynivka (immediately north of Chasiv Yar).

Well south of Bakhmut, west of Horlivka, fighting continues just east of the town of Toretsk and in the surrounding villages; there were no confirmed gains by Russian forces, but reporting suggests significant gains by Russian units.

Donetsk City

Russian forces had more confirmed gains in the general area west of Avdiivka, pushing north-west through Sokil, north-east out of Novoolksandrivka, and taking control of more terrain north of Karlivka and the Karlivka reservoir. Fighting continues along a long arc north, north-west and west of Avdiivka and the Russians continue to slowly push out to the west and north-west.

Fighting also continued south-west of Donetsk city but there were no confirmed gains by either side.

Velyka Novosilke (VN)

Russian forces made small but confirmed gains north of Staromaiorske and are pushing on Makarivka (due north of Staromaiorske about 2 miles), and fighting continues in Urozhaine

Orikhiv 

Fighting continues just north and north-east of Robotyne as Russian forces try to work their way up the tree lines. Fighting also continues just south of Mala Tokmachka but there were no confirmed gains or losses by either side. Fighting was also reported north of Verbove, but that must be getting a bit tense for the Ukrainian units in that areas; as the Russian forces push north-east from Robotyne and also press on Mala Tokmachka from the south-east of that town, that salient is going to start to close off.

Dnepr River

Fighting continues around Krynky on the east bank but there were no confirmed changes in terrain held by either side. Both sides continue to “snipe” with artillery and FPV drones.

Air Operations 

Russia’s Defense Ministry reported that a July 1st, Iskander M strike on the Mirhorod airfield outside Poltava destroyed 5 SU-27 Flankers and damaged 2 others. The UAF stated that there had been a strike on the airfield but said the damage was not that great, but gave no details.

Later Russian MOD claims added on other activity along the fronts bringing the UAF losses to 5 x SU-27s and 2 - MiG-29s and damage to 2 x SU-27s.

The UAF acknowledge the attack and that some aircraft were damaged but only says these numbers are an exaggeration.

Russian sources reported three Ukrainian drones struck an electric power sub-station in Energodar, near the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), leaving the city without power or water for several hours. The ZNPP was not affected.

The UAF reported that Russian forces fired 3 x Iskander M cruise missiles, 4 x Kh-59/69 cruise missiles, 5 x Shahed drones and 1 x Orlan-10 drone into the Dnipropetrovsk area this morning. The UAF claimed it shot down 6 of 6 drones, 4 of 4 x Kh-59s, and 1 of the 3 x Iskander missiles. 

The UAF reported that the cruise missiles struck a shopping center, killing 4 and wounding 27.

Politics and Diplomacy

Unidentified sources inside the Zelenskyy administration report that President Zelenskyy wants to force Prime Minister Shmyhal out and may fire him.

"The President is tired of Shmyhal; it’s obvious from his attitude at meetings. He doesn't even listen to him much anymore. It's more of an emotional thing than a miscalculation…”

A seconds source labeled it as "the second attempt to dismiss Shmyhal in the last two months.”

The Prime Minister is nominated by the President and approved by the Verkhovna Rada. Constitutionally, the Prime Minister can only be fired by the Verkhovna Rada, but the President can request it and then the Verkhovna Rada would pass a resolution of no confidence.

Shmyhal has been Prime Minister since March 2020.

Possible replacements include:

Yuliia Svyrydenko, First Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy

Oleksii Chernyshov, CEO of Naftogaz, former regional development minister 

Aid

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) transferred the 5th tranche of funds to Ukraine, $2.2 billion for government finance, critical budget expenditure, social benefits, and doctors’ and teachers’ salaries. This brings total IMF transfers under “EFF” (Extended Fund Facility - a particular IMF fund for assistance to countries facing balance of payment problems) to more than $16 billion since February 2022.

NATO yesterday collectively agreed to provide Ukraine with $40 billion Euros ($43 billion) in military assistance in 2025. The agreement will be officially approved next week at the NATO summit in Washington.

Secretary Austin announced a $2.3 billion package which includes Patriot missiles, NASAMS missiles, anti-tank missiles and other equipment. A detailed breakdown has not been released yet.

State Department spokesman Patel issued a statement yesterday in response to Hungarian PM Orban’s call for a ceasefire. 

"First of all, let me say that I will leave it to our partners in Hungary to offer any context or clarification of Mr. Orbán's comments that they would like to hear. We and NATO have made it clear that there is really only one solution, and this is that the Russian federation will simply leave Ukrainian territory. We have felt for a long time that this, once again, is another example of Russia being an aggressor, violating the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine, disregarding the UN Charter.”

“The United States has made it clear to our partners and allies that any country, which has influence or plays a certain role, must make every effort to ensure that Russia completely withdraws from Ukraine.”

Economic Reporting

Feb 22   Mar 7   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Sep8 Feb8 Apr8 Jun7 Jul2 Jul3

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      90.95   80.93 90.13 80.06 87.21 86.32

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      87.77   75.49 86.13 75.81 83.97 82.87

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15        2.63       1.95 1.83 2.82 2.45 2.45

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      98.11     91.09 92.69 88.77 87.94 88.19

Wheat     8.52        12.94    10.71    6.17        6.00     6.02 5.67 6.40 5.90 5.81

Urals 56.56     74.34    66.28 77.31 67.61 67.61 67.61

ESPO   67.02     80.88     74.85 85.96 74.63 80.98 80.98

The hyrvnia exchange rate rose to 41.1 to the dollar this morning, a 12.5% loss in value since the hyrvnia was floated October 3rd, 2023 (from a fixed rate of 36.5).

Thoughts

There is a good deal of geo-located video that shows Russian troops making small gains in multiple towns west and north-west of Avdiivka, the same thing west of Horlivka. At the same time reports suggest that there may be as many as 15 Ukrainian brigades along the border just north of Kharkiv, where they’re facing less than 5 full Russian brigades. 

Impossible to prove, as the actual placement of Ukrainian and Russian troops is likely to be different than what is found in open sources, but it would appear that the Ukrainian General Staff is very concerned with the problem on the border north of Kharkiv. This was shown by President Zelensky ordering Col.Gen Syrskyi to go to the border area and see it for himself yesterday. The question is whether in addressing that problem have they left a few weak points on the line?

And at the same time the Russians, perhaps outnumbered 3 to 1 in that area continue to hold and make small gains. And Russian engineers continue to build defensive positions on Ukrainian terrain.

v/r pete