July 9th, 2024

Overall 

Ground Operations - Russian gains continue

Air Operations - More on Hospital Strike

Politics - NATO Summit begins 

Weather

Kharkiv

92 and clear, gusting near 20. Mostly sunny all week. Lows in the low 70s, highs in the mid 90s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

95 and mostly cloudy. Wednesday and Thursday party cloudy, then four days of sunny weather. Daily lows in the upper 70, daily highs near 100. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

87 and mostly cloudy. Partly cloudy tomorrow then 4 days of sun. Daily lows near 70, daily highs in the 90s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Ground Operations

North of Kharkiv

Russian and Ukrainian  forces remain engaged north and north-east of Kharkiv but there were no confirmed gains by either side. There was no further reporting on the claimed Ukrainian build-up east of Vovchansk.

Donets River

Russian forces claimed more gains east and south-east of Kupyansk but these have not been confirmed. Hard fighting continued along the entire line of contact.

Bakhmut

There were no confirmed gains north or north-east of Bakhmut, nor were there any gains south of Bakhmut.

In the fight for Chasiv Yar Ukrainian forces appear to have regained several city blocks east of the canal in the north-east section of Chasiv Yar, and continue to hold Russian forces east of the canal.

Further south, west of Horlivka, Russian forces continued to push on Pivnichne and Niu York and claim successes, but there were no confirmed gains in this area.

Donetsk City

West and north-west of Avdiivka Russian forces continued to claim slow, incremental gains, but there were no confirmed gains in the area.

West and south-west of Donetsk City Russian forces continuum to make small but steady gains as they push the forward line west towards the O-0532 roadway, the north south road between Marinka and Vuhledar. Russian forces also appear to continue to make small gains in Krasnohorivka and Heorivka.

Velyka Novsilke (VN)

Fighting continues just north of Staromaiorske, and in Urozhaine, and Russian forces continue to push on Makarivka.

Orikhiv

Russian forces made confirmed gains north and north-west of Verbove as they slowly push north and retake the land the Ukrainians re-took in last summer’s counter-offensive; Russian forces now appear to be threatening the next to the last defensive line south of Orikhiv. Fighting also continues north of Robotyne and immediately south of Mala Tokmachka.

Dnepr River

Fighting continues around Krynky and along the river but there were no changes in terrain held.

Aid

MODUK announced a new aid package of .50 cal ammunition, 90 x Brimstone missiles, 50 x small boats, 40 x de-mining vehicles and 10 x AS-90, 155MM self propelled artillery, with spare barrels.

Germany announced that they will transfer a third Patriot battery to Ukraine.

Latvia announced it will transfer 2,500 small drones to Ukraine.

Air Operations

The casualty count on the strike in Okhmatdyt Children’s Hospital stands at 23 killed and 63 wounded.

Russian sources now state that the target of the strike into the area of the hospital were electric grid - transformer substations, two of which were on the grounds of the hospital, and one was nearby. Transformer substations convert high voltage to lower voltage, for local use. The two substations at the hospital were destroyed.

By US and NATO rules, substations are normally considered legitimate targets, but obviously, not if they are in the middle of a functioning hospital.

The final counts of the missile strikes yesterday stands at:

6 x Iskander M ballistic missiles

17 x Kh-101 cruise missiles 

1 x Kh-47 3 x Kinzhal ballistic missile

1 x Zircon cruise missiles 

14 x Kalibr cruise missile

2 x Kh-22 cruise missiles

3 x Kh-59/69 cruise missiles

The UAF claimed it shot down 13 x Kh-101, 1. X Kh-47, 3 x Iskander ballistic missiles, 12 x Kalibr, and 3 x Kh-59/69

Politics and Diplomacy 

NATO summit is underway in Washington DC (9-11 July).

Leadership has already stated that the most important issue at the summit is continued support to Ukraine.

Essentially all heads of government of the member nations are in attendance, to include the new UK Prime Minister, Keir Starmer. Prime Minster Fico of Slovakia, who survived an assassination attempt in May, is still recovering and is not in attendance.

Also in attendance will be the leadership from many of the “Partner Nations” (Non-European nations or European nations that are not yet members), to include:

President Zelenskyy of Ukraine

Prime Minister Kishida of Japan

Prime Minister Albanese of Australia

President Yoon of South Korea

Prime Minister Luxon of New Zealand

Charles Michel, head of the European Council

President Ursula von der Leyen of the EC

The agenda will include:

Continued support for Ukraine (to include another 40 billion Euros ($43 billion)  for 2025.

Defence spending and bringing all nations to defense spending levels of 2% of GDP. Currently 23 nations are at or above 2%.

China and discussion of continued support to Asia-Pacific Partners - Australia, Japan, and South Korea, as well as protection of Taiwan.

Vice Admiral Sergei Lipilin, former Baltic Fleet Commander, has replaced VADM Vorobyov as commander of the Black Sea Fleet. VADM Vorobyov is now Deputy Commander of the Russian Navy.

Economic Reporting

Feb 22   Mar 7   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Sep8 Feb8 Apr8 Jun7 Jul8 Jul9

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      90.95   80.93 90.13 80.06 86.03 85.19

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      87.77   75.49 86.13 75.81 82.55 81.73

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15        2.63       1.95 1.83 2.82 2.37 2.38

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      98.11     91.09 92.69 88.77 87.63 88.18

Wheat     8.52        12.94    10.71    6.17        6.00     6.02 5.67 6.40 5.91 5.71

Urals 56.56     74.34    66.28 77.31 67.61 67.61 67.61

ESPO   67.02     80.88     74.85 85.96 74.63 80.98 80.98

Thoughts

The missile strike on the transformers / substations at the hospital was gross, but it also was effective - two more substations were destroyed. Also of note, the fact that the two substations were destroyed demonstrates that the hospital strike was not simply a Patriot missile strike - it is unlikely (virtually impossible) that Patriot missiles falling back to earth would hit the very targets the Russians were firing at. The Patriots may have fallen back to earth and hit the hospital, but clearly, the substations were targeted. By the Russians.

The longterm takeaway is that the strikes on the power grid continue, and even though Ukraine has already moved gear in to replace these two transformers, the Russians are going to keep picking at the power grid. Anticipate later in the summer and in the fall they will use Iskander missiles to strike the other Thermal Power Plants and brake them.

Meanwhile, the Russian attacks west of Horlivka and west of Avdiivka continue to grind out small gains. The attacks west of Avdiivka are now, once again, along a line of rivers and reservoirs that runs roughly north-south (from the Karlvika reservoir area to just west of Novoselivka Persha, west past Vovche, west of Novoolksandrivka and up past Baranivka) and present another opportunity for the Ukrainians to use the terrain to help them stop the advance. If they can, well and good. If the Russians push further west, they will face relatively open terrain, with few difficult terrain features, to Pokrovsk, the logistics hub for the southern end of the eastern line.

v/r pete