July 11th, 2024 No Summary on Friday, next Summary 15 July

Overall 

Ground Operations - Russian gains continue

NATO Summit - NATO members, US long range missiles (TLAM) to Europe

Economic - Russian Oil Revenue

Weather

Kharkiv

95 and partly cloudy. Mostly sunny tomorrow, and the next 5 days. Daily lows near 70, highs in the mid 90s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

96 and mostly cloudy, gusting to 20. Partly cloudy Friday and Saturday, then mostly sunny for 4 days, lows in the low 70s, highs in upper 90s. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

88 and sunny. Sunny for the next 5 days. Daily lows near 70, daily highs in the low 90s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Ground Operations

North of Kharkiv

Russian forces have been confirmed to have crossed the Vovcha River - moving south - and pushed into central Vovchansk. The Vovcha River runs generally east to west through the town and Russian forces have destroyed several Ukrainian pontoon bridges to inhibit resupply of Ukraine forces north of the river (to little effect). It isn’t clear at this point if the Russians crossed on only the Soborna street bridge, but they have pushed into the center of Vovchansk and now hold positions on Kharkiv street, one of the main east-west streets.

Fighting also continues around Hlyboke and near Lyptsi, but there were no confirmed gains or losses by either side.

Recent statements by senior Ukrainians suggested the total Russian force that is operating north of Kharkiv (inside Ukraine) was between 10,000 and 12,000 troops, which would equate to 4 brigades. Ukrainian forces now stand at 9 brigades plus several independent battalions. The chief of staff for the Ukrainian Kharkiv forces noted that RuAF strike assets had dropped 1,700 glide bombs in this area since the attack began late in May.

Donets River

Russian forces made small gains south-west of Svatove near Novovodyane and Makiivka, pressing westward and nearing the Zharabets River. Further gains were claimed south-east of Kupaynsk as well, but were not confirmed.

Bakhmut

Fighting continues north-east of Bakhmut, with Russian forces remaining on the attack near Siversk, but there were no confirmed gains.

Fighting continues on the eastern edge of Chasiv Yar (west of Bakhmut), and Russian forces appear to be consolidating there positions east and north the eastern end of Chasiv Yar, but there were no new gains noted.

West of Horlivka Russian forces maintained pressure on Pivdenne and Niu York, with some claims of further gains in NIU YORK, but these gains have not been confirmed.

Donetsk City

Fighting continues along the line of contact north-west and west of Avdiivka, with multiple Russian advances reported but not confirmed. Ukrainian and Russian sources dispute who controls the small town of Yasnobrodivka, north of Karlivka, but Russian sources claim advances across most of the line of contact, most of which have not been confirmed.

Much of this fighting consists of moving from one very small village to another, in turn pounding each into rubble. The Russians are not gaining anything of value in the terrain itself, but are simply using this process to engage and kill Ukrainians and slowly chew up and seize terrain.

South-west of Donetsk Russian forces also had more small gains, pushing further into Krasnohorivka, as fighting continues along the line of contact south towards Vuhledar.

Velyka Novosilke (VN) and Orikhiv

Russian forces continue to attack Makarivka (north of Staromaiorske) and northern Urozhaine, but there were no confirmed gains. Further west, Russian forces were active south of Hulyaipole, to include air strikes on Ukrainian positions near Chumatske (7 miles south-south-east of Hulyaipole).

  Russian forces continued to attack north of Robotyne near Mala Tokmachka, as well as north of Verbove, pushing on the defensive lines they occupied 14 months ago.

Dnepr River

More fighting was reported around Krynky and on the islands in the Dnepr River mouth, but there were no confirmed gains or losses by either side.

 Air and Maritime Operations

On July 10th Russian forces launched at least 1 x Iskander-M ballistic missile, 4 x Kh-59/69 cruise missiles, and 20 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down 14 x Shaheds, and that they used soft kill techniques (electronic warfare) to defeat 3 x cruise missiles, and 3 x drones. Reports from Odessa included 2 x KIA and 1 x WIA and damaged port facilities.

There was an additional report of damage to elements of the power grid near Rivne (north-west Ukraine), with half of the oblast losing power.

The Financial Times is reporting that Russia produced 420 x Kh-101 cruise missiles in 2023, vice only 56 in 2021, despite the missile using US and European technology that ostensibly they should be unable to access due to the various trade sanctions.

Ukraine seized the bulk carrier merchant ship Usko Mfu, Cameroon flag (one source says it is flying an Equatorial Guinea flag), stopping it in the Black Sea, charging it with carrying grain stolen from Ukraine.

Usko Mfu, 310 feet, 2800 deadweight tons, is currently anchored well up the Danube.

Aid

Sweden’s Foreign Minister Billstrom commented yesterday that Sweden is ready to provide JAS-39 Gripen fighter aircraft to Ukraine, if and when Ukraine is able to handle the integration of the aircraft into their air force. 

NATO Summit and Politics

The major news out of the NATO Summit, as noted yesterday, is the pledge of 40 billion Euros ($43 billion) for Ukraine in 2025, as well as the rapid movement of additional air defense assets to Ukraine in the near term, to include 4 more Patriot batteries.

The declaration also made it clear, among comments on Russia, China, and nuclear deterrence, that Ukraine will receive an invitation to join NATO some time in the near future.

The US also said that it would deploy long range surface-to-surface missiles to Germany, a capability that was not allowed under the Theater Nuclear Force treaty. The US terminated TNF in 2019 after several years of major Russian violations.

The missiles to be deployed would consist of TLAM (Tomahawk cruise missiles) SM-6 (long range surface-to-air and surface-to-surface missile) and, when deployed in the next several years, the LRHW - the 1,700 mile range “Long Range Hypersonic Weapon.”

The first deployments of TLAM are expected in 2026.

Bloomberg is reporting that the Ukrainian government is trying to organize a second peace conference - before the US presidential election - and that they intend to invite Russia to the conference.

From Russia, Security Council Deputy Chairman Medvedev, who often acts as President Putin’s rabid dog, stated that Russia will not hold peace talks with Ukraine until Ukraine surrendered, Ukraine was destroyed, and Russia had occupied the entire country, adding that Ukrainian land must return “to the bosom of the Russian land.”

Russian forces appear to have - again - executed POWs, the latest being 2 soldiers captured in southern Ukraine in June.

Ukraine’s Prosecutor General is investigating another apparent war crime, involving the an incident - captured on video - which appears to show Russian soldiers shooting the two Ukrainian soldiers who had put their weapons down and surrendered.

The incident took place in June near Robotyne.

Economic Reporting

Feb 22   Mar 7   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Sep8 Feb8 Apr8 Jun7 Jul9 Jul10 Jul11

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      90.95   80.93 90.13 80.06 85.19 84.53 85.13

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      87.77   75.49 86.13 75.81 81.73 81.35 82.05

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15        2.63       1.95 1.83 2.82 2.38 2.37 2.31

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      98.11     91.09 92.69 88.77 88.18 87.99 87.45

Wheat     8.52       12.94    10.71    6.17        6.00     6.02 5.67 6.40 5.71 5.72 5.62

Urals 56.56     74.34    66.28 77.31 67.61 67.61 67.61 67.61

ESPO   67.02     80.88     74.85 85.96 74.63 80.98 80.98 80.98

Bloomberg reports that Russian oil exports amounted to $16.7 billion in June, a 23% increase from June of 2023, but a 1.2% drop from May of this year. Experts totaled 7.6 million barrels per day (average) for June, down from 7.7 million barrels per day in May.

The G7 price cap on Russian oil its $60, the average trade price for exported Russian oil was $70.39 cents.

Thoughts

The EU - US sanctions were, at least as publicly stated, central to the strategy to defeat Russia, yet, Russia is making more missiles now than before the war - with US and European technology, oil revenue is up, the IMF noted 3% real growth in the Russian economy in 2023, and Russia is making more artillery shells than the US and EU combined.

It was discussed well before the war what needed to be done to pressure Russia, and broad sanctions were not on the list. As you might recall, the 2019 Rand Institute study noted that the number 1 option to pressure Russia (and impose “costs”) was to expand US energy production and thereby deprive Russia of much of their energy-based revenue. The 3rd option focused on expanding Europe’s ability to import LNG and thus cut the umbilical to Russia’s gas fields.

It would seem that the current sanctions strategy might need to be looked at again…

Meanwhile, there seems to be some odd developments here with the possible 2nd peace conference. Following the Bloomberg article there were comments from several senior members of the Russian government (beyond the madman Medvedev) that they weren’t interested. If the Ukrainian government is willing to talk, and is willing to talk about some sort of compromise, the Russians would be foolish to refuse to talk.

v/r pete