July 17th, 2024
Overall
Ground Operations - Russian gains continue, Krynky empty?
Aid - EC approves fund, Germany cutting funds
Politics - POW exchange
Weather
Kharkiv
94 and sunny. Sunny to mostly sunny the rest of the week. Daily lows in the mid 70s, highs in the upper 90s. Winds northerly, 5-10kts.
Melitopol
95 and partly cloudy. Partly to mostly sunny for the next week. Daily lows mid 70s, highs around 100. Winds variable, 5-15kts.
Kyiv
89 and cloudy, gusting to 20. Scattered thunderstorms tomorrow, some showers and partly cloudy Friday, partly cloudy to sunny over the weekend and into next week. Daily lows in the 60s, daily highs in the 80s. Winds north-westerly, 5-10kts.
Ground Operations
North of Kharkiv
Russian and Ukrainian forces remain engaged north of Kharkiv (near Hlyboke) and north-east of Kharkiv (in Vovchansk), but there were no confirmed gains or losses on either side.
Donets River
Fighting continues the length of the line of contact but there were no confirmed gains or losses by either side.
Bakhmut
Fighting continues north-east, north, west and south of Bakhmut, but there were no confirmed gains noted in this area. Fighting continues near Siversk and Bilohorivka and Spirne to the north-east, as well as on the eastern edge of Chasiv Yar. Russian forces claim that Ukrainian forces withdrew westward and the elements of the Russian forces moved across the canal yesterday but this has definitely not been confirmed.
Fighting also continues just to the south as Russian forces are trying to force Ukrainian forces off the high ground just outside of Klishchivka. Russia forces control more than half of the ridge line, but the Ukrainian forces are well dug in and are holding.
West of Horlivka Russian forces continued to attack into Niu York and in the Toretsk area, with unconfirmed claims of gains in Druzhba (2 miles east of Toretsk).
Donetsk City
Russian forces continue to make small gains west and north-west of Avdiivka, and appear to be pushing further into Novoselivka Persha and the surrounding area, attacking multiple small villages in the arc of land north, north-west and west of Avdiivka, as far south as Karlivka. Russian forces also continue to push their front lines across open fields, clearing small Ukrainian positions and straightening and shorting lines.
West and south-west of Donetsk City fighting continues in Heorhiivka and Krasnohorivka, and along the front south to the vicinity of Vuhledar, but there were no confirmed gains. Russian reports claimed multiple gains but they remain unsubstantiated.
Fighting continues across the southern front with Russians attacking north of Staromaiorske into Makarivka, and north of Robotyne into Mala Tokmachka, but there were no claims of any gains by either side.
Dnepr River
While both official and unofficial sources continue to report that fighting continues near Krynky, the Ukrainian Marines, who were providing the bulk of the forces in Krynky and along the Dnepr, announced this morning that they withdrew their forces from Krynky as of “several weeks ago.”
Note that this morning the Ukrainian General Staff commented that "the invaders twice unsuccessfully tried to squeeze the Ukrainian soldiers from their positions on the established bridgeheads on the left bank of the Dnipro river.” The left bank is the eastern bank of the river.
There have also been videos of small boats and troops on the river in the last several weeks - which could easily be faked, or could have been videos of the troops being removed - and they have not stated clear when in fact the troops were pulled, nor why.
Air Operations
Today is the 10th anniversary of the shoot-down of Malaysia Air Flight 17, over Russian controlled terrain in eastern Ukraine.
A large number of Russian reconnaissance drones and Shahed strikes drones were active across Ukraine last night and this morning (numbers not given) but this has been done before to provide targeting data for follow-on strikes on key targets, particularly Ukrainian are defense assets. If so, a strike can be expected tonight.
At least 13 x Ukrainian drones were launched into Russian air space last night. Russian forces claimed to have shot down most of them, but at least one oil facility suffered some damage.
There have been multiple reports over the last several days that Russian aircraft are attempting to hit bridges over rivers west of Kupyansk to slow Ukrainian logistics.
This seems fairly obvious, but they have mainly avoided hitting bridges since the start of the war…
Aid
The EU’s executive office, the European Commission, after assessing that Ukraine had met various reform goals, has recommended approval of the first regular payment of the Ukraine Facility (UF), which is designed to provide funds for government administration. This recommendation means that the EU Council will now vote on the recommendation, which, if passed, will mean 4.2 billion in euros ($4.5 billion) for Ukraine.
This would bring the total provided to Ukraine under the UF to 12 billion euros ($13 billion).
Ukraine also signed an agreement with the EU for a 5.3 billion euro ($5.7 billion) grant.
Ukraine is scheduled to receive 16 billion euros ($17.3 billion) by the end of this year.
The German government approved the draft budget for 2025 and it includes 4 billion euros ($4.3 billion) for Ukraine, compared to almost 8 billion euros ($8.6 billion) transferred in 2024.
Defense spending is 53 billion euros ($57 billion), about 1.3% of GDP.
Greece announced that it will transfer 32 x F-16s to Ukraine as it upgrades its air force with F-35s, Rafales and F-16 Block 70s.
Politics and Diplomacy
Russia and Ukraine conducted their 3rd prisoner exchange in 7 weeks this morning, each side turning over 95 POWs. The exchange was arranged by the UAE.
The electric power agencies in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania officially notified Russia and Belarus yesterday that they will disconnect from the Moscow controlled power grid on 07 February and connect to European power grid (the Continental Europe Synchronous Area), telling Moscow that the BRELL Agreement (Belarus, Russia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania Agreement) will not be renewed in February 2025. This transition has been planned for the past 5 years and the transition to the EU grid was supported by EU assistance worth 1.2 billion euros ($1.3 billion).
Economic Reporting
Feb 22 Mar 7 Jun10-22Jun8-23 Sep8 Feb8 Apr8 Jun7 Jul9 Jul16 Jul17
Brent 94.71 119.50 120.90 75.58 90.95 80.93 90.13 80.06 85.19 84.21 84.74
WTI 92.10 123.80 119.50 71.29 87.77 75.49 86.13 75.81 81.73 81.23 82.42
NG 3.97 4.45 8.41 2.15 2.63 1.95 1.83 2.82 2.38 2.17 2.07
Ruble 85 145.70 58.48 82.59 98.11 91.09 92.69 88.77 88.18 88.33 88.47
Wheat 8.52 12.94 10.71 6.17 6.00 6.02 5.67 6.40 5.71 5.33 5.31
Urals 56.56 74.34 66.28 77.31 67.61 67.61 81.47 80.72
ESPO 67.02 80.88 74.85 85.96 74.63 80.9 77 unk
The Hryvnia - Dollar exchange rate hit 41.46 to the dollar yesterday, representing a 12% drop in value since the Hryvnia was floated last October, and 32.3% drop since the war began.
The Ruble is currently worth about 3.5% less than when the war started but has been all over the charts, as shown above.
Thoughts
What exactly is going on, on the east bank of the Dnepr is not clear, but either the Ukrainian Marines or the Ukrainian General Staff are wrong; my sense of it is that there is more truth in what Ukrainian Marines are saying, but we shall see.
The Ukrainian troops crossed the river and pushed into Krynky in October 2023, and have been taking regular casualties since, with nightly small boat operations to remove wounded and bring in replacements.
As of late May - early June, reporting tended to reflect less and less infantry activity and more “artillery” fire, mainly consisting of mortar fire but also a food deal of FPV drones.
Casualties have never been known, but there was anecdotal reporting that several of the battalions had suffered in excess of 70% casualties, and that daily casualties amounted to a handful of dead and more than a handful of wounded.
Even given an average of 2 KIA and 7 WIA per day, 270 days at that rate would mean 540 KIA and 1890 WIA. For a force starting at roughly 10,000 strong (4 x Marine regiments were the overwhelming bulk of the force), 2,400 casualties would be significant but manageable, assuming they began with 100% manning. But if the troops on the east side of the river were all from the 8 infantry battalions in the 4 regiments (2 per regiment) that would mean 2,400 casualties out of less than 4,000 troops. If the casualties were a little bit heavier they would have fallen below 50% strength. One report, seemingly from a disgruntled Ukrainian soldier, suggested that normal casualties (KIA and WIA) amounted to roughly 100 per week, which would work out to something on the order of 800 KIA and 3,000 WIA).
But, this also serves to point out that there are sometimes serious disconnects between what the General Staff is saying about anything and what in fact is happening.
v/r pete
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