July 15th, 2024

Overall 

Ground Operations - Russian gains continue

Russian MinDef calls Austin

Weather

Kharkiv

97 and partly cloudy, isolated thunderstorms this evening. Mostly sunny the rest of the week. Daily lows mid 70, highs in the mid 90s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

98 and mostly cloudy, gusting to 20. Mostly cloudy on Tuesday, partly to mostly sunny the rest of the week. Daily lows near 80, highs around 100.. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

92 and sunny. Party cloudy to sunny all week, daily lows in the low 70s, daily highs in the 90s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Ground Operations

North of Kharkiv

Ukrainian forces made gains in Vovchansk (north-east of Kharkiv, along the border), pushing into the eastern end of that town, fighting also continues into the center of the town, with Russian forces appearing to hold positions around the strong points in the center.

Due north of Kharkiv, around the town of Hlyboke, fighting also continues but there appears to be no change in positions. Ukrainian reporting noted continued Russian tacair strikes.

Donets River

Fighting continues along the line of contact from Kupyansk to Kreminna, but there were no confirmed gains or losses by either side. Russian sources claim gains in and around Makiivka, reporting reaching the Zherebets River, and Russian sources suggest that Russian forces now control everything on the east side of the Zherebets, while Ukrainian forces control that the town west of the Zheebres river, but this is unconfirmed.

Bakhmut

North-east of Bakhmut Russian forces continued to push toward Siversk direction, but there were no confirmed gains.

West of Bakhmut, the fight for Chasiv Yar continues, with Russian forces over the weekend favoring artillery fire and drone attacks rather than instruction attacks. There were no confirmed gains or losses.

South of Bakhmut fighting is reported just south and west of Klishchivka, and the Russians claim they are pushing Ukrainians off their last positions on the high ground but this is not confirmed.

West of Horlivka Russian forces continued to attack near Toretsk and Niu York, and Russian sources claimed some gains but none were confirmed.

Donetsk City

West and north-west of Avdiivka Russian forces continued to grind out gains ver the weekend, with confirmed gains north of Sokil as well as Novoselivka Persha, and fighting continues arose most of the front line north-west and west of Avdiivka.

Russian forces remained on the attack west and southwest of Donetsk City across a fairly broad front (Krasnohorivka, Pobieda, Paraskoviivka, Kostyantynivka, and Vodyane) but there were no confirmed gains. 

Velyka Novosilke and Orikhiv

Fighting continues across southern Ukraine; Russian forces appear to have finally pushed into the north end of Urozhaine and control most, and possibly all of that town. Fighting also continues north of Staromairorske as Russian forces maintain pressure on Makarivka.

Dnepr River

Fighting continued on several island in the Dnepr River delta, as well s around Krynky, but there were no confirmed gains or losses.

Air Operations

Russian forces conducted relatively small numbers of  missile and drone strikes over the weekend, to include at least 3 x Iskander M ballistic missiles, 2 x Kh-59/69 cruise missiles, at least 1 unidentified cruise missile, and at least 6 drones, to include both Shahed strike dozens and Orlon recce drones. The UAF claimed it shot down all but the ballistic missiles. The Russians MinDef repeated that their ballistic missiles truck a Ukrainian army logistic train.

On July 12th, 5 x Kh-101 cruise missiles, and 19 x Shahed drones were launched into Ukraine airspace, and the UAF claimed that 11 drones were shot down.

Russian forces claimed to have shot down 22 Ukrainian drones over Russian occurred territory, to include Crimea, as well as over Belgorod oblast.

Aid 

Spain is transferring 10 x Leopard 2A4 tanks to Ukraine, as well a several excavators, as well as anti-tank missiles and ther ammunition. This brings to a total of 20 the number of tanks Spain has transferred to Ukraine.

Politics and Diplomacy 

Russia’s Minister of Defense Belousoy called SecDef Austin on July 12th (the day after the NATO Summit ended) and the two reportedly talked about reducing the risk if escalation. The full list of things they talked about was not released, nor even how long two spoke.

Secretary Austin also reportedly discussed the importance of maintaining an open line for communication.

Belousov had previously spoken to Austin on June 25th. Before that, August had last spoken with the the Russian MinDef when he spoke to then Defense Minister Shoigu in March 2023.

The Razumkov Center (a non governmental, Ukrainian research center) has released the results of a poll that suggests more Ukrainians are leaning toward peace talks.

Per the poll, 44% of Ukrainians now believe that the time has come for official talks between Ukraine and Russia, with 35% saying it is not time.

By region, Western Ukraine was least interred in negotiations, with just 35% in favor, while 49% of central Ukrainian residents support negotiations; 33% of eastern Ukrainians support negotiations, while 60% of southern Ukrainians support negotiations.

However, 83% are not in favor of withdrawing from Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts or ceding this terrain to Russia.

Finally, 58% of those polled opposed Ukraine’s non-aligned - neutral status, 22% were in favor.

President Zelesnkyy commented that the mobilization is going according to plan, expanding the army by more than 400,000 personnel and adding 14 brigades to the ground forces. 

"The military says everything is going according to their plan. As for training grounds, they are not enough. As for whether they can be expanded, expansion is already underway. As for whether it is possible to expand the base abroad, yes, and this is one of the decisions of our bilateral agreement with Poland.”

Zelenskyy has noted several times that Ukraine still does not have enough weapons and gear to fully equip the new brigades.

The mobilization law went into effect on May 18, giving Ukrainian men 60 days to update military registration. That period ends July 16th.

Economic Reporting

Feb 22   Mar 7   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Sep8 Feb8 Apr8 Jun7 Jul9 Jul11 Jul15

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      90.95   80.93 90.13 80.06 85.19 85.13 84.97

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      87.77   75.49 86.13 75.81 81.73 82.05 82.13

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15        2.63       1.95 1.83 2.82 2.38 2.31 2.28

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      98.11     91.09 92.69 88.77 88.18 87.45 88.36

Wheat     8.52       12.94    10.71    6.17        6.00     6.02 5.67 6.40 5.71 5.62 5.51

Urals 56.56     74.34    66.28 77.31 67.61 67.61 67.61 81.47

ESPO   67.02     80.88     74.85 85.96 74.63 80.98 80.98 UNK

Reuters reports that Russian ESPO (Eastern Siberia Pacific Ocean pipeline) shipments will reach an average of 940,000 barrels per day for the month of July, as China continues to buy Russian oil. Finding a quoted price for that oil

Thoughts

Two thoughts: one concerning activity on the ground, the other, chatter between SecDef Austin and MinDef Belousoy.

The ground warfare is slow… Consider:

Russian forces north of Kharkiv are said to number some 30,000 (one estimate says 30,000 to 70,000, the upper number appears to be completely unreasonable), but this number (30,000) appears to include not only the forces that pushed across the border, but the entire roll call of units supporting the operations - what we would call combat support (engineering, intelligence, communications, etc.) and combat service support (logistics, transportation, medical support, staff functions, etc.)) On the various maps (which are not authoritative, just assembled by various bloggers), only 4 Russian brigades have crossed the border. They face parts or all of 9 to 11 Ukrainian Brigades. They are badly outnumbered but they hold on,

At the same time, on the east bank of the Dnepr, small Ukrainian elements - never larger than a battalion minus ( 2 companies - perhaps 200 men at it’s largest) has held a part of Krynky for months and months; fighting has been ongoing around Krynky since at least October but the Ukrainians have never had more than perhaps 500 troops there, and that was when they were replacing some 250 guys with anther 250 guys.

For the most part there has been about 150 troops, until about 5 per 6 weeks ago when the number was reduced to less than a company - less than 100. Still, they hold on.

Similarly, small detachments of both Russian and Ukrainian SOF have from time to time set up on islands in the Dnepr and each time they have often held against far larger forces for weeks at a time.

The point is that once troops - on either side - get “dug in like a tick,” they are tough to dig out. The cause for this is multi-faceted, but near the top of the list iOS that surveillance drones provide very reliable warning of troop movement; surprise is harder and harder to come by.

Also, ”Counter battery fire" - with drones - makes approaching an enemy position slow and painful and very personal - drones can be sued to strike at one  guy at a time.

And the engineers - on both sides - have really improved their game - these units now have small fighting positions that are increasingly hard nuts to crack…

What it all suggests is that short of some very tightly integrated combined arms warfare, coupled with a great deal of jamming and the use of a great many drones, and artillery, etc. there is not going to be any sort of rapid movement through any lines. A future Ukrainian advance is likely to be slow and painful and will generate a lot of casualties.

As for the conversation between the SecDef and the MinDef, it is, of course, possible that Moscow and Washington are engaged in some sort of secret talks, whether to arrive at some sort of comprehensive peace agreement (which I would think is very unlikely) or simply a ceasefire (more likely) but this is still a very weak “indicator” of any such endeavor. Nevertheless, Moscow would recognize that some sort of ceasefire agreement prior to the November elections would be a plus for the Biden Administration and certainly could be "playing that card.” Nevertheless, there are no other indicators that are readily visible that suggest that secret talks are taking place.

v/r pete