July 22nd, 2024

Overall 

Diplomacy - Zelenskyy and Trump talk

Ground Operations - Russian gains continue

Aid 

Weather

Kharkiv

85 and partly cloudy. Partly cloudy or sunny all week; daily lows in the 60s, highs in the upper 80s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

87 and mostly cloudy, gusting to 20. Partly to mostly cloudy all week. Daily lows upper 60s, highs in the upper 80s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

80 and partly cloudy, scattered thunderstorms. Mostly sunny to partly cloudy this week, daily lows in the 60s, daily highs in the 80s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Diplomacy 

On Friday night President Zelenskyy talked on the phone to Former President Trump and they talked about the end state of the war. Zelenskyy reiterated that there must be a fair and lasting peace, and the two agreed that they will meet and talk about it at some later date.

Zelenskyy has called for a host of criteria to be met, as has Putin and the two sides are, on paper truly incompatible. 

Trump’s position, is, it seems, only that there must be a deal in there somewhere and he is just the guy to find it… Given his track record over the past 50 years, and the subtle indicators of growing war-weariness in both Russian and Ukraine, it is likely that Trump will be able to get some traction.

Of note, Kremlin spokesman Peskov commented with a marginally favorable comment about recent Zleenskky comments on peace talks:

"In general, of course, this is better than statements that any contacts with the Russian side and with the Russian head of state are excluded…of course, talking in one tone or another about dialogue is much better than talking about the intention to fight to the last Ukrainian.”

"But we cannot yet judge what exactly is behind these words [Zelensky's words about the possibility of negotiations], what concrete plans are being talked about and what actions are being taken in this direction, if the conversation is serious, here we should wait for some concrete actions, if any."

Ground Operations

North of Kharkiv

Fighting continues north and north-east of Kharkiv but there has been no confirmed changes in the lines over the past few days. Ukrainian forces are apparently trying to push across the Travyanske reservoir (north of Lyptsi, west of Hlyboke) but have not yet succeeded.

The Ukrainian army reports that the Russians are reinforcing both in the Hlyboke and Vovchansk area, with elements of a Marine Regiment  and elements of a Motorized Rife Division, but the size of each element was not given. At the same time, at least one Russian regiment, a tank regiment, has been withdrawn from the fight and sent to the rear to re-equip.

The data are incomplete but it appears that the Russians part or all of 7 regiments committed to this incursion, and the Ukrainian response consists of part or all of 11 regiments.

Donets River

Fighting continues along the entire line of contact; there were no confirmed changes in disposition of forces or terrain held, but Russian sources claim that Russia units are now on the west side of the Zherebets river near Makiivka, and are engaging Ukrainian units.

Bakhmut

Fighting continues north, west and south of Bakhmut.

North of Bakhmut hard fighting continue around Siversk but there were no gains or losses of terrain.

Fighting continues around the east end of Chasiv Yar as the Russian forces try to push across the Donets Canal at several points and the Ukrainians continue to hold.

A curious note, a report from a Russian volunteer brigade (the 88th) climaxed that they were conducting assaults on Chasiv Yar on motorcycles… The tactic consist mainly of making a run as fast as possible across mine fields and then ditching the bikes and attacking on foot…Picture below from the Russian MOD.

Small gains were claimed by Russians just outside of Klishchivka but these have not been confirmed.

Further south, west of Horlivka, Russian attacks continue both east of Torestsk as well as into Niu York from the south. Russian sources claim significant gains in Niu York and in the small towns just east of Toretskl, but these have not been confirmed. 

Donetsk City - This is now being referred to as the Pokrovsk Front by the Ukrainian General Staff

Russian forces continue to push north-west and west from the general area of Avdiivka, with gains of up to a half kilometer in several areas. Multiple claims have been made, but remain unconfirmed, of gains north-east of Nevelske, north of Prohres, and west of Lozuvatske - but the real gist of it is that the Russian forces continue to slowly push the line westward (and a little north). Ukrainian forces give ground slowly, and grudgingly, but so far the Russian advance grinds on.

Gen Syrskyi commented this weekend on what is needed to stop the Russian advance:

"What can and must we do to stop the advance of a numerically superior enemy? The solution is clear: we need to deliver effective firepower against their main forces and reserves from a distance, inflict comprehensive damage to the enemy in front of our positions, firmly hold our engineer-prepared defensive lines and positions, and use all available weaponry and ammunition as efficiently as possible – especially our strike drones, where we have a distinct advantage." 

This sounds like a bit of BFO (blinding flash of the obvious), but Syrskyi may be making a point to his bosses that in order to “firmly hold engineer-prepared defensive lines and positions” - which is arguably the center point of the defense - one actually needs those positions, and in many cases here the Ukrainians don’t have fully prepared positions. And the distance needed to trade to prepare such positions would mean ceding terrain the Ukrainians in Kyiv don’t want to cede. 

South-west of Donetsk fighting continues along the line of contact, and Russian sources claimed gains inside Krasnohorivka, but these gains weren’t confirmed. Fighting continues south of Konstyantyniivka, with Ukrainian forces holding their positions from repeated Russian attacks. 

Velyka Novosilke and Orikhiv

Russian forces remained on the attack in both general areas, as they continue to press north, trying to regain terrain lost last summer, but there were no confirmed gains.

Dnepr River

Russian forces are clearing the Krynky area and several of the islands in the Dnepr River.

Air Operations 

Russian forces claimed to have shot down 75 Ukraine drones last night from the Black Sea, north past Belgorod. Russian sources did not report any damage but private video showed a drone striking near an oil refinery in Tuapse on the Black Sea.

Ukraine fired at least 5 drones and 2 x ATACMS missiles at targets in Crimean the night of the 20th, and the Russian claimed they shot them all down.

Russian forces launched 3 x Iskander M ballistic missiles, 2 x Kh-59/69 cruise missiles, and 39 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace on the night of July 20th. The UAF claimed that all the drones were shot down (initial claims said 35 of 39, later adjusted up), and that the 2 cruise missiles were defeated by other means (electronic warfare).

A missile (not further identified) was reported to have struck “critical infrastructure” in the Sumy region, and another damaged agricultural infrastructure near Nikolaev.

A Ukrainian drone strike was conducted on a Millerovo Airfield, Rostov, on the night of July 20th and imagery confirmed that a maintenance hangar, and fuel storage area suffered damage.

Millerove, located about 20 miles east of Ukraine (just east-north-east of Luansk), is the home base of the 31st Guards Fighter Aviation Regiment, with 2 squadrons of Su-30SM Flanker H, (Russian squadron sizes can vary, with 12, 15 or sometimes 18 aircraft per squadron).

Russian forces conducted a strike into Ukrainian air space on the night of the 19th with 3 x Iskander M ballistic missiles, 1 x Iskander K cruise missile, and 17 x Shahed drones. The UAF claimed it shot down 13 of 17 drones. It’s not clear what targets were hit, with reports of both power grid targets and some residential areas being hit.

Russian forces also conducted a limited strike on the night of the 18th, launching 2 x Islander M ballistic missiles at targets near Kharkiv.

Politics

Russian authorities in Crimea have ordered - and the work has begun - tearing down the Holy Cross Exaltation Church of the Orthodox Church of Ukraine in Yevpatoriia, in Crimea. This is reported to be the last Ukrainian orthodox church in Crimea.

The parishioners are being charged with the cost of demolition.

Aid

Czech Foreign Minister Lipavský comment that 100,000 rounds of ammunition (155MM shells] will be delivered to Ukraine in July and August [50,000 per month] as part of the Czech initiative, and that there are now enough funds to deliver 500,000 rounds by the end of the year.

Ukraine’s Minister of Finance Marchenko announced that Ukraine has reached an agreement with the International Monetary Fund and large private holders, and have resort red their private debt.

"After months of negotiations and hard work with private creditors, the IMF and official creditors, we have reached an agreement with the committee of European bondholders on a comprehensive restructuring of our external public debt."  

The agreement include provision of $11.4 billion in debt service savings over the next three years, and a total of  $22.75 billion by 2033.

Economic Reporting

Feb 22   Mar 7   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Sep8 Feb8 Apr8 Jun7 Jul9 Jul19 Jul22

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      90.95   80.93 90.13 80.06 85.19 84.76 82.34

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      87.77   75.49 86.13 75.81 81.73 82.53 79.81

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15        2.63       1.95 1.83 2.82 2.38 2.09 2.20

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      98.11     91.09 92.69 88.77 88.18 87.52 87.82

Wheat     8.52       12.94    10.71    6.17        6.00     6.02 5.67 6.40 5.71 5.35 5.43

Urals 56.56     74.34    66.28 77.31 67.61 67.61 80.38 79.30

ESPO   67.02     80.88     74.85 85.96 74.63 80.9 77    SOKOL 75.61

Note that the last entry is for Russian Sokol (from Sokol Island) oil prices, which are being purchased by countries that don’t recognize the sanctions. ESPO is still being sold but prices have not been reported for a number of days.

The Indonesian oil refiner Pertamina, which has not purchased any Russian oil for 10 years, announced that it has added Russian oil to its mix for September deliveries, specifically Urals and Sokol crude.

The first harvests of the summer yielded 15.7 million tons of grain and oil crops from 10.8 million acres, to include 10.3 million tons of wheat, 3.1 million tons of barley, 1.8 million tons of rapeseed, and 319,300 tons of peas.

Thoughts

There are two take-aways over the past several weeks:

The first and lesser one is that the Russians appear to be fighting better than the Ukrainians. Russian forces north of Kharkiv are outnumbered on paper 11 brigades to 7 but are holding ground. Russian forces west of Horlivka are at best of equal strength as the Ukrainian forces and are slowly grinding into Niu York and Toretsk, and Russian forces west and north-west of Avdiivka continue to slowly grind out gains, every day adding another field or two, or another village. None of this is fast, nor is it elegant, but the Russian army is grinding forward.

Further, as demonstrated by the numbers of the 4 Ukrainian Marine regiments that were responsible for the Krynky fight, the Russian attrition warfare caught up to the Ukrainians and they were forced to withdraw.

Certainly, the Russians are taking casualties - total Russian casualties now appear to number 75 - 80,000 KIA (and Missing In Action) and probably close to 300,000 WIA. (It is of note that some 25% of the Russian KIAs - and presumably WIAs - were penal colony prisoners who were drafted - conscripted - “pressed” - into the army.) Hard numbers are difficult to come-by for Ukrainian casualties, but snippets of data - such as the Marines at Krynky - suggest that they are as high as the Russian casualties in many of the areas along the front. That fact alone, plus the prodigious consumption of weapons, suggests that generating a fully trained offensive force for a winter counter-attack is going to be difficult.

The second point is this, and it may well be “the” thing: the tone has changed. One of the major indicators in any warming problem is the horribly subjective - but terribly important - change in tone; that moment when what the leadership is saying changes. 

In this case we seem to be seeing both Zelenskyy and Putin soften just the tiniest bit on their willingness to negotiate a settlement. There is still a great deal of nasty commentary and Medvedev’s “Kill ‘em all” rhetoric remains, but reading a pile of this stuff every day it just comes across as a tiny bit softer.

Might be fanciful thinking on my part but perhaps there are feelers out, through third parties, for some secret talks…

v/r pete