July 8th, 2024

Overall 

Ground Operations - Russian gains continue, fighting increases west of Horlivka

Air Operations - Hospital hit in Kiev

Politics - Ukraine and Poland sign security agreement  

Weather

Kharkiv

90 and clear. Mostly sunny all week. Lows in the mid 70s, highs in the upper 90s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

92 and mostly cloudy. Thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon, Wednesday and Thursday party cloudy, then several days of sunny weather. Daily lows in the upper 70, daily highs near 100. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

84 and clear. Partly to mostly sunny for the whole week. Daily lows near 70, daily highs near 90. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Ground Operations

North of Kharkiv

Ukrainian forces had confirmed gains both north of Kharkiv near Hlyboke and in eastern Vovchansk (north-east of Kharkiv), as Russian forces made gains in the center of the town. Fighting is very heavy and the town has been reduced to ruins.

Russian sources report that very large number of Ukrainian troops (they have twice a many brigades in the area as do the Russians) have assembled in the woods east of Vovchansk and suggest that an attack into the eastern edge of the Russian held terrain will take place in the next 48 hours.

Donets River

Russian forces claimed gains north-west of Svatove but there were no confirmed gains. However, Russian forces continued attacking along virtually the enter front in this area.

Bakhmut

Fighting continues near Chasiv Yar and the front line is now the Donets Canal, with Russian forces spreading north and south along the canal probing to find a seam in Ukrainian forces and push across the canal. The canal is normally about 10 feet deep and 40 - 50 feet wide.

Fighting also continued just north and south of Bakhmut but there were no confirmed gains or losses.

West of Horlivka, Russian forces made gains in several spots just east of Toretsk, pushing into Pivnechne and possibly Niu York and Yurivka. The small town of Druzhba, on the north edge of this battle, is being hard pressed with multiple Russian tacair strikes, and on the south-east edge the village of Chagari is close to being surrounded and Ukrainian forces may be trying to withdraw.

Donetsk City

Russian forces claimed more gains north-west of Avdiivka (in the vicinity of Novoselivka Persha), but these gains have not been confirmed. Russian forces continue to attack across most of the front from North of Avdiivka to west and south-west of the town, but there were no confirmed gains over the weekend. Video shows an Ukrainian M1 tank being destroyed in this area in the last several days.

Fighting continues west and south-west of Donetsk City in Krasnhorivka and in the general area of Paraskoviivka, Kostyantynivka, and Vodyane, but there were no confirmed gains by either side over the weekend 

Velyka Novosilke (VN) and Orikhiv

Fighting continues across the southern front but with few confirmed changes noted over the past several days. Of note, Russain forces continue to attack Makarivka, north of Staromaiorske, on the road to VN.

Dnepr River

Russian and Ukrainian forces remain engaged near Krynky and near the remains of the Antovosky bridge but there were no changes in terrain held over the weekend. 

Air Operations 

Russian forces conducted a fairly large strike (38 missiles) into Ukrainian airspace this morning, after a series of smaller strikes over the weekend. The strike this morning consisted of :

1 x one Kh-47M2 Kinzhal ballistic missile

4 x Iskander-M ballistic missiles

1 x 3M22 Zirkon cruise missile

13 x Kh-101 cruise missiles

14 x Kalibr cruise missiles

2 x Kh-22 cruise missiles

3 x Kh-59/Kh-69 cruise missiles

The UAF claimed it shot down 30 missiles but a breakdown wasn’t yet available. 

One of the Kh-101 missiles hit the Okhmatdyt National Children’s Hospital in Kyiv.

As of midday here, 22 people at the hospital have died, and 77 have been injured.

On a technical note, the UAF reported that the Russian cruise missiles were at times flying bellow 50 meters (160 feet) altitude (above the ground). 

The Security Service of Ukraine pointed out that recovered pieces of Kh-101s have “dozens” of electronic components that are made in NATO countries.

On Sunday the UAF claimed it shot down 13 of 13 x Shahed drones launched into Ukrainian airspace. Russia sources also noted that 2 x Iskander ballistic missiles were launched but there is no follow-on neutral or western reporting as to what the two missiles did; Russia sources claim the missiles destroyed 2 x Patriot launchers.

On Saturday Russian forces launched 27 x Shahed drones and the UAF claimed it shot down 24 drones. 

Drone attacks on Saturday struck power and water systems in north-eastern Ukraine and left 100,000 homes with power or water.

Politics and Diplomacy

Poland and Ukraine signed a Security Cooperation Agreement this morning.

The agreement provides for continued aid to Ukraine (since the war began Poland has proved 4 billion Euros ($4.3 billion) in aid), as well as training for the Ukrainian army, and the possibility of another squadron of MiG 29s.

The agreement is for 10 years.

LTGEN Igor Kirillov, Chief of Russia’s Radiation, Chemical and Biological Protection Troops, is claiming that Russian forces found (another) Ukrainian chemical weapons lab near Avdiivka, and the facility was manufacturing hydrogen cyanide. Kirillov has made several claims that Ukrainian forces had used hydrogen cyanide in eastern Ukraine and across the border, and he suggested that the US and NATO are prepping a false flag operation to accuse the Russian of the use of gas.

Economic Reporting

Feb 22   Mar 7   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Sep8 Feb8 Apr8 Jun7 Jul3 Jul8

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      90.95   80.93 90.13 80.06 86.32 86.03

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      87.77   75.49 86.13 75.81 82.87 82.55

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15        2.63       1.95 1.83 2.82 2.45 2.37

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      98.11     91.09 92.69 88.77 88.19 87.63

Wheat     8.52        12.94    10.71    6.17        6.00     6.02 5.67 6.40 5.81 5.91

Urals 56.56     74.34    66.28 77.31 67.61 67.61 67.61

ESPO   67.02     80.88     74.85 85.96 74.63 80.98 80.98

Thoughts

Russian missiles have, in fact hit civilian facilities, to include hospitals, but it probably is not accurate that they targeted those facilities. Russian forces are still responsible, as they did start the war, but the number of civilian casualties, while horrible, are too few in number to be deliberate. Said differently, if they were trying to create civilian casualties, there would be a lot more. US targeting and strike execution are excruciating in the level of effort made to minimize civilian casualties, yet there are many civilian casualties, from a variety of causes: a weapon is struck by air defense fire and falls, unguided. Or, a missile simply “went stupid” (did not perform according to specifications). Targeting errors are also made (the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade, 1999).

As unpleasant as it is to say, in all likelihood, the missile strike on the children’s hospital was probably a missile that had been hit by an air defense systems and was disabled but not destroyed. It is also possible that it simply is that certain percentage that doesn’t do what strike planner wants.

Weapons all have a certain accuracy (CEP - Circular Error Probable, is the most common measure) but that is a probability curve which states that 50% of all weapons, if working properly and launched properly, will land within the stated “CEP.” But it also means that 43.7% land between 1 and 2 times the CEP from the aim point, 6.1% land between 2 and 3 times the CEP from the desired impact point, and 0.2% land outside 3 CEPs. And that is when everything works properly. If the pilot makes a mistake in launching the weapon, if the weapon is struck by air defense fire, if the seeker head is jammed, etc., all will affect the outcome.

The result is that there will be civilian deaths - there were at least 66,000 civilian deaths in Iraq between 2004 and 2009, many caused during the delivery of precision weapons. 

v/r pete