July 24th, 2024 Next Summary 06 August

Overall 

Ground Operations - Russian gains continue

Politics - Poland, Hungary, Slovakia all have issues

Weather

Kharkiv

79 and sunny, gusting to 20, scattered showers later tonight. Mostly sunny through the weekend, daily lows in the 60s, highs in the 80s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

83 and partly cloudy, gusting to 20. Partly to mostly cloudy through Friday, followed by 4 sunny days. Daily lows upper 60s, highs in the upper 80s. Winds variable, 5kts through the weekend.

Kyiv

80 and sunny, gusting to 20. Mostly sunny to partly cloudy this week, daily lows in the 60s, daily highs in the 80s. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Ground Operations 

North of Kharkiv

Russian forces claimed to have pushed Ukrainian forces out of Hlyboke and driven them back a kilometer south of the town, which given the correlation of forces - decidedly in favor of the Ukrainians around this town - seems unlikely, unless the Russian Air Force was able to establish air control over the town and the army was then successful in pushing the Ukrainian army to the south.

Donets River

Fighting continues along the enter line of contact from Kupyansk to the Donets River, but there was no observed gains on the ground, though Russian bloggers claimed multiple gains the length of the line  North of Bakhmut Russian forces had small, confirmed gains south and south east of Siversk.

Hard fighting continued immediately east and north-east of Chasiv Yar, and Ukrainian sources continue to report an increased tempo of Russian attacks, but there were no confirmed Russian gains in the line.

South of Bakhmut, west of Horlivka, Russian forces remained on the attack, but despite multiple claims of gains in the Niu York area, there are no confirmed gains by Russian forces.

Donetsk City

Russian forces continued to grind forward west and northwest of Donetsk City and Avdiivka, advancing 6 kilometers in the past week in the area of Myrrohrad-Pokrovsk, per Ukrainian sources. 

Ukrainian sources and anecdotal reporting suggest that Russian forces are attacking those  Ukrainian units that already have the highest casualties, rather than attacking the weakest position.  

South-west of Donetsk City Russian forces made small but confirmed gains in Krasnohorivka and continue to push through Heorhivka into Maksymilyanivka. Further to the south, Russian forces also pushed closer to Vodyane, just west of the O-0532 roadway, which runs from Vuhledar to Marinka.

Velyka Novosilke (VN) and Orikhiv

Fighting continues across southern Ukraine, but the only claims of gains were for Russian forces pushing north out of Staromaiorske into Makariivka (due south of VN), and just to the west of Makariivka. Additional claims are that Russian forces were attacking near the small town of Vremvka, which is immediately west of VN. 

This seems like a large dose of hyperbole; if Russian forces have reached Vremivka, then they hooked left around Makarivka and have moved almost 5 miles north of Staromaorske, flanking all the Russian soldiers who are dug in, inside the string of small towns and trenches south of VN.   

Dnepr River

Fighting continues along the east bank and on the islands at the mouth of the river, but there were no confirmed gains or losses.

Air Operations  

Ukrainian forces launched an unknown number of drones into the general area of Crimea and Russian forces claimed to have shot down 21 of the drones. An unconfirmed report suggests that at least 1 Ukrainian drone struck a Russian army communication facility.

On the night of the 22nd Russian forces launched 1 x Iskander M ballistic missile, 1 x Kh-69 cruise missile and 8 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down (both hard and soft kills) the cruise missile and 7 of the drones. The ballistic missile hit “critical infrastructure” in the Odessa region - no further details were provided.

A separate Russian attack caused damage to the power grid around Sumy and left 50,000 homes without power.

Politics and Diplomacy

Hungary’s Foreign Minister Szijjarto commented yesterday that Hungary will block a 6.5 billion Euro ($7.1 billion) transfer out of the European Peace Fund until Kyiv allows Lukoil - a Russian company - push oil through the Druzhba pipeline to Hungary.

The Druzhba pipeline is actually a series of pipes which flow out of Russia, across Belarus and Ukraine, into Europe. One part in particular is set up to feed Hungary; that pipe crosses western Ukraine.

"I made it clear that until this issue is resolved by Ukraine, the payment of 6.5 billion Euros of compensation for weapons from the European Peace Fund should be forgotten about.”

Slovak President Pellegrini and Slovak Defense Minister Kaliňák are also disturbed at Ukraine’s refusal to transport Lukoil petroleum and said that if the situation persists Slovakia will have to react.

Poland’s Defense Minister Kosiniak-Kamysz commented yesterday that Ukraine cannot join the EU until it has “resolved” the “Volyn tragedy.”

"Ukraine cannot join the European Union without resolving the Volyn tragedy issue.”

The Volyn Massacre involved the murder of between 60,000 and 120,000 inhabitants of German occupied Poland, which at the time included much of western Ukraine, between Holy Week, April 1943 and early 1945, carried out by the “Ukrainian Insurgent Army,” a partisan nationalist army that at one time or another fought against virtually everyone else in Ukraine, and was for part of the war allied with Nazi Germany. 

The massacre was particularly gory, with a large percentage of those killed being tortured and butchered rather than being shot.

In a poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, 30% of those polled said they would support some land concessions to Russia if it would bring an end to the war, a number that is more than 3 times what it was last summer.

Economic Reporting

Feb 22   Mar 7   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Jun7 Jul9 Jul23 Jul24

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      80.06 85.19 81.15 81.88

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      75.81 81.73 77.08 77.93

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15      2.82 2.38 2.19 2.11

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      88.77 88.18 87.85 86.70

Wheat     8.52         12.94    10.71    6.17       6.40 5.71 5.48 5.43

Urals 56.56    67.61 67.61 77.56 76.34

ESPO   (SOKOL) 67.02      74.63  75.61 75.13 73.94

It’s not crystal clear why the ruble has strengthened against the dollar in the past week, but one of the more common comments is that the price fluctuations reflect speculation around the coming US election.

Thoughts

The unconfirmed reports that Russian assaults are focused on those units with the highest casualties makes sense in a simple tactical manner, but also would play well in an information warfare campaign: you will be kicked when you are down. And it is, of course, consistent with the attrition warfare that Russia is fighting.

What it also does is force the Ukrainian army to make hard choices: Do units need to come off the line earlier to prevent this sort of exploitation? If so, that would mean replacing this units with newly formed units before they can complete advanced, higher echelon training. Or, it might mean flowing more new troops forward, earlier, before they have finished individual, advanced training. Either way, it will make it more difficult for the Ukrainians to prepare the large force necessary to conduct the winter offensive.

Or, the General Staff can maintain, remaining focused on the winter offensive, while front line units continue to take more casualties, knowing that the bloodier they are the more casualties they will take.

Few easy choices in a war of attrition.

Meanwhile, as the comments from leadership in Poland, Hungary and Slovakia demonstrate, the situation isn’t necessarily getting easier for Kyiv.

v/r pete