July 18th, 2024

Overall 

Ground Operations - Russian gains continue - Krynky abandoned

Air Operations - UAF defense appears to be successful 

Weather

Kharkiv

96 and sunny. Sunny to mostly sunny for the rest of the week. Daily lows in the upper 60s, highs near 90s. Winds northerly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

97 and sunny, gusting to 20. Partly cloudy for the next week. Daily lows mid 70s, highs around 100. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

82 and sunny, scattered thunderstorms later in the day. Partly cloudy for the rest of the week, except Sunday which will be sunny. Daily lows in the 60s, daily highs in the 80s. Winds north-westerly, 5-10kts.

Ground Operations

North of Kharkiv

Fighting continues both north and north-east of Kharkiv; north of Kharkiv, near Hlyboke, Russian forces had small but confirmed ground gains just north of the town. Fighting also continues in and around Vovchansk - north-east of Kharkiv, but there were no gains or losses of ground on either side.

Russian forces continue to fight for control of both of these pieces of terrain despite facing substantially larger forces, with roughly 2 Russian brigades committed to each area (nominally 6,000 troops (3,000 per brigade or regiment) but certainly fewer, probably less than 5,000 total) facing all or parts of 6 brigades in the western area and 5 brigades in the eastern area. Russian air and artillery, and perhaps combat engineers, would seem to be the reason for the Russian ability to hold the terrain.

Donets River

Fighting continues the length of the line of contact north of the Donets River, with Russian forces remaining on the attack, and retaining the initiative. Small but confirmed Russian gains were noted west of Svatove, but more gains were claimed by Russian bloggers along much of the line. The Ukrainian General Staff did confirm Russian attacks along virtually the entire line. 

Bakhmut

Again, Russian forces remain on the attack; north and north-east of Bakhmut Russian forces made small gains south of Siversk and appear to be pushing on the southern edge of the town, and are active east of the town.

West of Bakhmut: there are reports that Russia forces made gains immediately north-east of Chasiv Yar and there are multiple unconfirmed reports that some Russian troops have crossed the canal heading west. Fighting also continues near Klishchivka but there are no claims of any gains in this area.

Further south, Ukrainian forces pushed Russian forces back just south of Toretsk as well as south-east of Niu York, while Russian forces made gains pushing into Niu York from the south. 

Donetsk City

Russian forces made more gains north-west of Avdiivka with confirmed gains north and south of Novooleksandrivka. Heavy fighting is reported to the west and south-west of Avdiivka, and Ukrainian press reports more Russian advances to the south-west around Karlivka.

Further south-west more heavy fighting was reported and the Russians appear to be pushing to gain control of the road from Marinka to Vuhledar (the 0524 roadway), but there were no confirmed gains.

Velyka Novosilke (VN) and Orikhiv

Fighting continues across the south but with no confirmed gains across the entire line of contact.

The Ukrainian General Staff commented that all Ukrainian forces were withdrawn from Urozhaine on the 14th as the town had been leveled and there were no more defensive positions.

Of note, Russian artillery or rockets reportedly struck a drone operations center near Mala Tokmachka, negatively impacting Ukrainian drone operations in southern Ukraine.

Dnepr River

The Ukraine General Staff continues to report fighting on the east bank of the Dnepr despite Ukrainian Marines announcing that they had withdrawn from the east bank, but it does appear that forces have, in fact, been withdrawn form Krynky (see Thoughts below).

It also appears that there are some Ukraine army and marine elements who are active on the islands in the Dnepr, continuing  to conduct raids on the eastern shore, but the various towns have been so badly mauled that there is no easy way to take a position and hold it.

Air Operations 

Russian forces launched 16 x Shahed drones, 2 x Kh-59/69 cruise missiles and 1 x Kh-35 cruise missile into Ukrainian air space last night. The UAF claimed it shot down all 16 drones and the 2 x Kh-59/69 cruiser missiles. 

Separately, it was reported that an undisclosed number of Russian Iskander M ballistic missiles struck targets in the Odessa area.

Politics and Diplomacy

Prisoner exchange recap (all were orchestrated by the UAE):

Russia and Ukraine have had 5 POW swaps this year, for a total of 555 POWs, with each exchanging the same number at each event:

January 31 - 195

February 9 - 100

May 31 - 75

June 25 - 90

July 17 - 95

Economic Reporting

Feb 22   Mar 7   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Sep8 Feb8 Apr8 Jun7 Jul9 Jul17 Jul18

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      90.95   80.93 90.13 80.06 85.19 84.74 84.98

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      87.77   75.49 86.13 75.81 81.73 82.42 82.90

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15        2.63       1.95 1.83 2.82 2.38 2.07 2.04

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      98.11     91.09 92.69 88.77 88.18 88.47 88.05

Wheat     8.52       12.94    10.71    6.17        6.00     6.02 5.67 6.40 5.71 5.31 5.39

Urals 56.56     74.34    66.28 77.31 67.61 67.61 80.72 79.87

ESPO   67.02     80.88     74.85 85.96 74.63 80.9 unk 77

Thoughts

Concerning the situation along the eastern bank of the Dnepr River, Ukrainian press reports this morning reveal some interesting information from police reports out of Kherson Oblast (the police were apparently helping to transport and register bodies). The reports  show that between October 2023 and the end of June 2024 Ukrainian forces (predominantly the 4 Marine regiments) had 262 confirmed killed in action and 788 missing in action.

This requires a little explanation: the Ukrainians frequently reported on the difficulty of moving killed and wounded across the river in small boats, due to Russian artillery fire and FPV drones.  The result was that many bodies were not transported across the river but were left, and are now missing.

If I use that total - 1,050 (788 + 262) as actually a measure of KIA, the WIA count would be in the range of 3,500 - 4,000, for a total casualty count of 4,500 - 5,500. This would be out of a total count for infantry - the troops who actually went across the river were essentially all infantry - of less than 8,000, and probably less than 7,000. (Note: there was an unconfirmed report several weeks ago that mentioned that the actual total number of marines present in the those 4 regiments was a few hundred short of 10,000, so this would represent a 50% casualty count.)

Personnel who were in these regiments also noted that by the end of winter the town of Krynky no longer existed, the ruins themselves had been beaten flat, and the fight was very difficult every day because there was no cover. The same condition applied in Urozhaine and resulted in the Ukrainian forces being withdrawn from that town several days ago.

Recall that in November of 2022 several Russian generals noted that killing Ukrainian soldiers was of greater impact than taking terrain, and that a slow grind, attrition fight that chewed up Ukrainian forces was the real strategy. If so, they seem to have executed that plan around Krynky, and if these numbers are roughly correct, they have rendered 4 Ukrainian marine regiments combat ineffective.

Still, small elements (normally less than a company in size (120 or less)), often no more than 2 x platoons of the Ukrainian marines at a time held parts of Krynky with virtually no cover for 4 months… some tough troops.

v/r pete