July 1st, 2024

Overall 

Ground Operations - Marginal Russian gains continue

Air Operations - Commentary from CEO of DTEK

Politics - Zelensky talks about Peace Proposal and Mobilization

Weather

Kharkiv

89 and partly cloudy. Mostly sunny through Friday, lows in the upper 60s, highs in the low 90s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

91 and partly cloudy. Sunny to Partly cloudy through Friday. Daily lows in the upper 60s, highs in the low 90s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

90 and sunny, gusting to 25. Partly cloudy by later morning tomorrow, and remaining partly cloudy through Friday. Daily lows in the upper 60s to low 70s, daily highs around 90.  Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Ground Operations 

North of Kharkiv

Hard fighting continues north-east of Kharkiv, with Russian forces making gains in central Vovchansk and Ukrainian forces making gains in the industrial sector of the city - located adjacent to the Russian gains, where they have reportedly encircled a Russian unit, but the reporting isn’t clear and the size of the unit is unknown.

Further west (due north of Kharkiv) Russian forces had confirmed gains near Hlyboke even as Ukrainian forces were noted counter-attacking and making some gains in that town as well.

Current maps show Ukrainian forces have 5 brigades committed to the western incursion (due north of Kharkiv) facing 2 Russian Brigades, and 6 brigades committed to the eastern incursion (north-east of Kharkiv) facing 2 Russian brigades and an additional battalion of troops.

Donets River

Fighting continues along the entire length of line of contact, and continues the now “routine” see-saw, give and take, nature of the fighting here, with Russian forces making confirmed gains south-east of Kupyansk and at the other end of the line, Ukrainian forces making gains along the Donets river south of Kreminna, pushing eastward in the Serebrianske forest (the northern bank of the Donets River).

Bakhmut

North-east of Bakhmut Russian forces continue to report gaining ground near Siversk and are now finishing the clearing of Rozdolivka.

West of Bakhmut fighting continues around the east end of Chasiv Yar and along the Donets Canal but there were no confirmed gains or losses. The fighting here is, in large part squad-sized, house to house fighting supported by artillery and rocket fire, and for the Russians, tacair support.

Well south of Bakhmut, immediately north-west of Horlivka, Russian forces appear to have made gains in and around Pivnichne and Zalizne, pressing in on the eastern edges of these two towns. Russian air support for these operations has been noted by several bloggers. 

Reportedly, Russian forces gained access to a Ukrainian garrison using an “underground tunnel,” presumably part of the water drainage or sewer system, surprising the defenders and forcing them to withdraw or surrender.

Donetsk City

North-west and west of Avdiivka Russian forces continue to grind out small gains; over the weekend it was confirmed that Russian forces are in control of Novooleksandrivka (north-west of Avdiivka about 12 miles) but that Ukrainian forces continue to challenge the control of the town.

Further to the south-west, Russian forces also made gains along the south shore of the Karlivka reservoir, and also appear to control the town of Sokil (about 4 miles south of Novooleksandrivka). Gains were also reported in Krasnohorivka, and there are unconfirmed reports that the last Ukrainian elements have withdrawn from the eastern and central sections of that town. All indicators are that the Russian grind to push the entire line westward continues to make slow progress.

Fighting continues across the front south-west of Donetsk City, but there were no confirmed gains or losses of terrain by ether side.

Velyka Novosilka (VN)

Fighting continues south of VN, and Russian forces continue to try to push north from Staroamiorske, but there were no confirmed gains of terrain.

Orikhiv

Fighting continues north and north-east of Robotyne as Russian forces continue to probe northward, but there were no confirmed changes in the lines.

Dnepr River

Fighting continues in and around Krynky. Unconfirmed reports claim that the Russians have dislodged the Ukrainian units but there is no reporting that supports that claim. Fighting was also reported on several islands in the river.

Air Operations

The CEO of DTEK, Ukraine’s largest private power company, stated that 90% of their electric power generation capacity if currently offline and that they will require “years” to repair their thermal power plants. Projections from the Ukrainian power industry suggest the country will have a 30% power deficit in the coming winter.

On June 30th Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike against the Novolipetsk Metallurgic Plant yesterday, one of Russia’s larger steel plants, located in Lipetsk, about 270 miles south-east of Moscow. The strike consisted of 9 drones and Russian air defense forces claimed to have shot down all nine drones. An oxygen separation unit and a garage were reported to have been damaged and on fire, the Russians claiming that debris from a drone that had already been shot down caused the fires.

The UAF also reported that 2 x Iskander M Ballistic missiles were launched at Kyiv around 1930 on the 30th and that both were shot down by Ukrainian Patriot batteries.

Russian forces conducted missile strikes against Ukrainian infrastructure on the night of 29-30 June, launching several Iskander M ballistic missiles at a rail - freight yard. There was no immediate damage report, but a video showed a missile hitting one end of a parked train carrying tanks and armored vehicles.

Russian forces conducted strikes against Ukrainian targets during the night of 28-29 June, firing 10 x Shahed drones. Ukrainian Air Forces claimed that all 10 drones were shot down. The Russian MinDef released video showing what appears to be a Ukrainian S-300 site being struck by some sort of “cruise missile,” the video has not yet been confirmed or refuted.

President Zelenskyy commented yesterday that Russian forces have dropped more than 800 “glide bombs” in the past week.

The steady increase in the number of strike sorties over the last 6 months speaks directly to Ukrainian loss of the ability to sustain an air denial campaign against the Russian Air Force along most of the front line.

Politics and Diplomacy 

President Zelenskyy commented on the end of the war:

"What we need is security. I am once again stressing what some of our partners in the US and in Europe are afraid of – it’s Ukraine’s NATO membership. NATO membership is good not just for Ukraine; it would provide security for Russia.”

The war will end. Sadly, not everyone who has lost their family members, friends, children, will receive satisfaction. So there will be a desire for revenge. Justice is needed so that people get an answer, so that the courts with corresponding verdicts are held, and so that the world is not afraid that Putin would come back again. And justice is in a security alliance, in NATO. And Ukraine being a NATO member is for the sake of Russia’s security as well.”

Commenting on various ideas to end the war that are circulating,

"But if the idea is to give up our territories, no, it will not solve the issue. Putin needs to feed his society, which is getting poorer every day, not with food because he has no money for that – but with information, with fake victories etc…If the idea is to cede our territories, then it’s a bad idea. It will not work; it will not lead to peace [globally] or between Ukraine and Russia.”

Zelenskyy also commented on the nature of the peace plan itself, as well as on the issue of mobilization and a lottery. The peace propels will work in much the same manner as did the Black Sea grain deal. 

Concerning the grain deal, Ukraine negotiated with Turkey and with the UN, but not directly with Russia. Russia worked only with Turkey and the UN.

"It worked, I'll be honest, this corridor worked long enough. And the same model can be used in territorial integrity, energy, and free shipping. When countries from different continents, so that no one talks about only the West, but also including Asia, the Pacific region, Africans, Latin America - when their representatives are preparing a decision regarding this or that crisis, and then this document, if it suits Ukraine, should also deal with the representatives of the Russian federation. So far, we have only such a model.”

"This year, we must develop this document [the peace proposal] and hold the Second Peace Summit, persevere and weaken the enemy as much as possible.”

Zelenskyy said that negotiations with “the aggressor state are unrealistic,” and that any peace agreement with Russia would be “a trap.”

As for mobilization:

"First of all, the request for the number [of people who need to be mobilized] is formed by the leadership of the Armed Forces. We can provide weapons, clothing, and modern technology, and I have to find money to produce that, and encourage partners to do it. But when it comes to planning tactical operations, to how many people are needed at the front – it is necessary that the military leadership formulate it.

The military leadership came up with the figures, I saw them, and today they are following this plan."

"They said that there was such a lottery once. I believe that this is unethical in relation to people who are already at the front line, and it is not fair, to be honest, to everyone. This lottery story occurred in the United States, but it was not a war in your homeland or for the survival of the United States. It is not an existential dilemma; it is rather something else. Ukraine is struggling for existence. And when we are discussing concepts such as survival and lottery in the same sentence – they are quite incompatible in my view.”

"We must do everything to care about people and even more about technologies."

"We will surely develop a document and will do everything possible to ensure that it is presented to Russian authorities, and that powerful governments from other countries attempt to end the war in a fair fashion. Of course, in various formats and dialogues. Of course, the war will not be totally over in a way that everyone would be happy about how it ended. As a result, it takes longer to complete. However, the document can be written in which some of the challenges are no longer solved by bullets, but by one or more kinds of dialogue.”

Economic Reporting

Feb 22   Mar 7   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Sep8 Feb8 Apr8 Jun7 Jun28 Jul1

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      90.95   80.93 90.13 80.06 86.71 85.43

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      87.77   75.49 86.13 75.81 82.11 81.96

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15        2.63       1.95 1.83 2.82 2.75 2.58

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      98.11     91.09 92.69 88.77 85.27 87.18

Wheat     8.52        12.94    10.71    6.17        6.00     6.02 5.67 6.40 5.80 5.74

Urals 56.56     74.34    66.28 77.31 67.61 67.61 67.61

ESPO   67.02     80.88     74.85 85.96 74.63 80.25 80.98

Thoughts

President Zelenskyy has some interesting points, and while at one point he seems to suggest that there is a possibility for a compromise on territory, he then rejects such an idea.

It would seem that the core of the concept is that most of the nations in the world, as well as the UN and other international organizations, would publicly endorse a document calling for Russian withdrawal negotiations for settling of other issues, and that the moral and political weight of the nations of the world calling for this action would force Putin to comply.

Frankly, that seems like a reach.

Sanctions have not worked (Russia’s economy showed, per the IMF, 3% real growth in 2023). Russia has a seat on the UN Security Council; China has one as well. So, the UN will not be used to force Russia into actions Russia doesn’t endorse. And more than half the world clearly remains neutral. Only 78 nations at the recent Swiss peace conference endorsed the Zelenskyy plan, 29 at the conference did not. And 87 countries didn’t attend.

However, if this new peace proposal actually is meant simply as a starting point for future, secret, negotiations, then perhaps it might be of value. 

But again, it does seem that Zelenskyy recognizes that the war needs to end, that the country needs an end to the war, that the losses in people and in assets cannot be sustained.

v/r pete