July 16th, 2024 1969 APOLLO 11 Launches

Overall 

Ground Operations - Russian gains continue

2nd Peace Conference? Invite Russia?

Power Grid Status

Weather

Kharkiv

94 and partly cloudy. Sunny to mostly sunny the rest of the week. Daily lows in the mid 70s, highs in the upper 90s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

97 and partly cloudy, gusting to 25. Partly to mostly sunny all week. Daily lows near 80, highs around 100.. Winds northerly, 5-15kts.

Kyiv

95 and partly cloudy. Mostly sunny tomorrow, scattered thunderstorms starting late tomorrow and all day Thursday, sunny Friday and over the weekend. Daily lows in the upper 60s to low 70s, daily highs in the 90s, slowly falling into the 80s over the next week. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Ground Operations

North of Kharkiv 

Fighting continues both due north of Kharkiv (near Hlyboke) and north-east of Kharkiv (in Vovchansk); Ukrainian forces are attempting to encircle Russian troops int eh aggregate plant and fighting is said tone very heavy, but there were no confirmed gains or losses by either side.

Donets River

Fighting continues along the length of the line of contact, and Russian forces claimed more gains around Makiivka, but these gains have not been verified.

Bakhmut

Both north of Bakhmut, and west of Bakhmut fighting continues but with no confirmed gains or losses over the last 24 hours. South of Bakhmut, in the area west of Horlivka, Russian forces may have gained some ground, pushing into southern Niu York, some of which has been confirmed, as well as some confirmed gains on the eastern edge of Pivnichne.

Donetsk City

West and north-west of Avdiivka Russian forces continue to grind out gains, with confirmed gains to the north-west in Yevhenivka, in the vicinity of Prohes and Novoselivka Persha, and also gains north of Karlivka.

West and south-west of Donetsk City Russian forces also made confirmed gains, pushing into western Krasnohorivka, and south of that town, as well as more marginal gains in the vicinity of Paraskoviivka, Kostyantynivka, and Vodyane.

Velyka Novosilke (VN) and Orihiv

Across southern Ukraine, fighting continues but with little change. Russian forces now control Staromaiorske and Urozhaine and have pushed north and continue to attack Makarivka, but there were no confirmed gains yesterday around that town.

North of Robotyne Russian forces continue to attack towards Mala Tokmachka, and there are claims of advancing more than a half a kilometer, but these have not been confirmed.

Dnepr River 

Fighting continues near Krynky and in the delta area, but there were no confirmed gains or losses by either side.

Air Operations

UAF drones struck Russian power grid elements in Stanovlyansk (about 75 miles north of Voronezh, 200 miles south of Moscow) and in Oryol (100 miles west of Stanovlyansk), as well as air defense assets in Crimea. In Stanovlyansk drones struck an "electrical substation” (a transformer), and in Oryol drones struck an oil storage facility (size not stated).

The UAF claimed they had struck an S-300 battery on Crimea, while Russian forces claimed they had shot down a total of x 13 Ukrainian drones. As always, it matters little how many drones or missiles you shoot down, what matters is how many got through.

Politics and Diplomacy

Beijing is pressing a China - Brazil peace plan on those countries that did not sign the Swiss peace conference communique. While more than 110 countries attended the conference, only 78 signed the letter, and China is now trying to get those who did not sign (which includes Armenia, Bahrain, Brazil, Colombia, India, Indonesia, Iraq, Jordan, Libya, Mexico, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Thailand, the United Arab Emirates, and the Vatican) to consider the Chinese plan.

As noted earlier, President Zelenskyy has suggested that a 2nd peace conference be held in the next 3 months, and that a representative from Russia be invited.

The US State Department commented that it would support Ukraine’s decision, with the State Department spokesman, Matthew Miller, noting, as usual, that these decisions are for Ukraine to make, that the US will not decide for them.

"We've always made it clear. And I note - and this is about how the Kremlin responded, at least initially, to those statements from Ukraine - we've always supported diplomacy when Ukraine is ready, but it's never been clear that the Kremlin is ready for real diplomacy… if and when they consider further diplomatic steps with Russia appropriate, we will support them in this decision.”

"We have always believed that decisions regarding diplomacy around this conflict should be made by Ukraine, where Ukraine is "at the wheel.” And therefore, when they - if they want to invite Russia to that summit, of course, we support it.”

President Zelenskyy continues to plan for changes in his cabinet officers, and rumors continue to circulate that Prime Minister Shmyhal is among those who will be replaced in the near term, but these are still rumors.

Power Grid

Reporting from Ukrenergo (Ukrainian Electric Power agency) and Ukrhyrdoenergo (the hydropower agency) provide a brief look at the health of the Ukrainian power grid.

The Dnipro Hydroelectric Power Plant, damaged in a missile strike on May 31st, was only cleared of debris two days ago, and an assessment of the facility now suggests that repairs will require at least 3 years.

Overall, Ukrhydroenergo estimates that there has been a 45% reduction in power generation capacity for hydro-electric power across Ukraine.

And there was reported a failure of equipment at one power plant last night and the result is that 7 oblasts ( Kharkiv, Sumy, Poltava, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kirovohrad oblasts) have power outages today.

Ukrenergo then reported that some equipment will be repaired over the next week, and that there will be an increase in available power next week, and they expect a significant series of repairs in August, but return to 100% power generation won’t occur until next spring - assuming no more damage is incurred between now and then (see my Thoughts).

Meanwhile, the CEO of DTEK (the largest privately owned power company in Ukraine) reported that 90% of their power generation capacity has been destroyed and warned that:

”There is too little time and too few of the billions of dollars needed to install several hundred small power plants, renovate bombed-out power stations or build wind and solar farms. Rolling blackouts will be routine.”

At the beginning of 2022 Ukraine could generate 36 gigawatts (GW) of electric power.by 2023, 18 GW had been lost either by seizure (the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant, for example) or destroyed. By the beginning of winter 2023 Ukrainian power capacity had increased to 27 GW, but attacks last winter brought the capacity back down to 18 GW.

A Ukrainian soldier, attempting to desert, was shot and killed by a border guard on Sunday.. The solider had been arrested trying to cross the border into Moldova, and was being held when he began to struggle with a guard and was then shot. 

Border guards also report that “more than a dozen” men have bene killed so far this year trying to cross the Tysa River, which forms part of the Ukrainian border with Slovakia and Hungary.

Elsewhere, a recruitment center has been bombed.

Economic Reporting

Feb 22   Mar 7   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Sep8 Feb8 Apr8 Jun7 Jul9 Jul15 Jul16

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      90.95   80.93 90.13 80.06 85.19 84.97 84.21

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      87.77   75.49 86.13 75.81 81.73 82.13 81.23

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15        2.63       1.95 1.83 2.82 2.38 2.28 2.17

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      98.11     91.09 92.69 88.77 88.18 88.36 88.33

Wheat     8.52       12.94    10.71    6.17        6.00     6.02 5.67 6.40 5.71 5.51 5.33

Urals 56.56     74.34    66.28 77.31 67.61 67.61 81.47 81.47

ESPO   67.02     80.88     74.85 85.96 74.63 80.98 UNK 77

Personnel from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are in Kyiv to confer on taxes and budgeting plans for the rest of the year.

In June the IMF Board of Directors reviewed the “Enhanced Financing Program for Ukraine" (EFF) and then transferred $2.2 billion to Ukraine, bringing the total transferred under the EFF to $7.6 billion.

The EFF was approved in early 2023 to run from April 2023 through March 2027 and is currently funded up through $15.6 billion.

Thoughts

Several days ago I commented about responses to the possibility that President Trump will be elected. Both Moscow and Kyiv now - increasingly - need to plan for that. Here are my thoughts slightly modified for events in Ukraine over the past 2 days. 

Moscow will have to face a return of Trump with a good deal of trepidation. NATO is now doing what Trump insisted they do - increase defense spending. With a combined GDP of more than $20 trillion (NATO less the US), 2% of GDP works out to more than $400 billion, 125% more than Russia’s defense spending. Add in US defense spending ($800+ billion) as well as US promises to deploy a wide range of new weapons to Europe, and Russia’s problems just got worse.

I would think that Russia will try to increase pressure, increase the tempo of combat operations, and also make every effort to destroy the Ukrainian power grid over the next 6 months, in order to improve their bargaining position once Trump insists on negotiations. Ongoing destruction of the power grid would give Russia negotiating leverage they might otherwise not have.

As for Ukraine, while Trump has insisted he will end the war, that is, despite handwringing, not necessarily a good thing for Russia. Yes, Russia would probably, under a negotiated cease-fire, retain most of what they now hold. But the likely end state would be a DMZ like Korea’s, armed and mined to the teeth, and a de facto end to Russian western expansion for several generations. In as much as this war has been going on - not for 2-and-a-half years, not for 10 years - but for 350 years, a 50 - 75 year (or more) ceasefire is probably not a bad thing for Ukraine and Europe. 

And, while Russia would be able to reconstitute its forces, as it does so it would face an increasingly more capable NATO and Ukraine.

v/r pete