July 19th, 2024 Next Summary July 22nd

Overall 

Ground Operations - Russian gains continue - Krynky abandoned

Zelenskyy calls for pressure, to force Russia to negotiate

American Evan Gershkovich gets 16 years for spying

Weather

Kharkiv

96 and sunny. Sunny to mostly sunny for the rest of the week. Daily lows in the upper 60s, highs near 90s. Winds northerly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

97 and sunny, gusting to 20. Partly cloudy for the next week. Daily lows mid 70s, highs around 100. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

82 and sunny, scattered thunderstorms later in the day. Partly cloudy for the rest of the week, except Sunday which will be sunny. Daily lows in the 60s, daily highs in the 80s. Winds north-westerly, 5-10kts.

Ground Operations

North of Kharkiv

Due north of Kharkiv, just west of Hkyboke, Russian forces made small but confirmed gains, and north-east of Kharkiv fighting continues both in the center of Vovchansk and on the eastern edge of the town. Chechen forces claim that they have made gains inside the town but where exactly wasn’t clear.

Donets River

Fighting continued along the entire line of contact, with Russian forces making confirmed gains near the P07 roadway between Svatove and Kupyansk, in and around Makiivka (south-west of Svatove), along the Zherebets River, and just east of Terny and Torske, at the southern end of the Zherebets River. 

Bakhmut

Fighting continues around Bakhmut - in the north, the west and the south; with some very hard fighting taking place in all three areas, and claims of Russian gains near Klishchiivka, but there were no confirmed gains by either side. Russian forces are pressing hard on crossing the Donets canal; Ukrainian forces remain well dug in and are not giving ground. 

Well south of Bakhmut, west of Horlivka, there were confirmed Russian gains in eastern Niu York.

Donetsk City

Russian forces continue to make small gains north-west and west of Avdiivka, pushing into central Yevhenivka (about 11 miles north-west of Avdiivka). In general, the Russians are now pushing westward and north-westward along a line that runs roughly from Vozdvyzhenka (about 14 miles north-west of Avdiivka), southward through Yevhenivka, Lozuvatske, Prohres, and Novoselivka Persha and further south to the Karlivka Reservoir, and each day they are making small gains, pushing the line another row of trees west in one or more areas, and then in follow-on days pushing west in an adjacent area, essentially policing up the line and keeping the line more or less straight - that is, keeping the lines as short as possible.

The Russian line is now roughly 11 - 12 miles out from Avdiivka, and roughly 14 miles from Pokrovsk, the major logistics and personnel hub for much of the eastern front. Of more concern for Ukraine, and more benefit for the Russians, the line is now moving beyond a series of de facto war obstacles (rivers, marshes, ponds and reservoirs) and the land, with fewer such obstacles, will be a little easier to move across. 

South-west of Donetsk City Russian forces continue to attack into Krasnohorivka and Heorhiivka, as well as fighting near Paraskoviivka and Kostyantynivka, but there were no confirmed gains in any of these  areas.

Velyka Novosilke (VN)and Orikhiv

As mentioned yesterday, Ukrainian forces withdrew from Urozhaine and Russian forces have now moved north and north-east of that town and are attacking Makaivka. Of note, reporting suggests that Ukrainian forces withdrew past Novodonetske as well, about 10 miles south-east of VN, 12 miles east of Urozhaine. Whether this was a retreat or a deliberate withdrawal to more readily defended lines isn't clear yet.

Russian forces also continued operations in a broad arc north of Robtoyne, but there were no confirmed gains. Russian forces did have small confirmed gains west of Marfopil (about 3 miles south-east of Huluaipole).

There are unsubstantiated reports that Russian forces are building on the southern front, in preparation for an attack into the Vuhkedar region or just west of that town.

Dnepr River

The Ukrainian General Staff and the Ukrainian Southern Command acknowledged that Ukraine forces have been withdrawn from Krynky, but stress that 

Ukrainian forces continue to conduct operations along the eastern bank and on the islands in the Dnepr River. Interviews with marines and soldiers who participated in the fight stress that there was little left of Krynky or neighboring towns. The picture here was taken of Krynky at the end of April; it is a fairly clear shot of that town, and representative of a number of small towns along the east bank of the Dnepr and well as small towns elsewhere; recent pictures of Urozhaine, while not as clear, show essentially the same scene: a completely smashed town.

Air and Maritime Operations

Ukrainian drones (surface and air - USV and UAV) hit a Russian coast guard facility on Lake Donuzlav, Crimea on the night of the 17th, damaging the headquarters building and a warehouse. The Russian claim was the 33 drones were shot down, but once again, how many shot down doesn’t matter, how many got through matters…

The Russians also claimed that they destroyed 10 USVs as they approached Crimea. 

Lake Donuzlav, located about 20 miles east-south-east of the western-most tip of Crimea, is technically a bay, but was a lake until 1961, when a 200 foot cut was made in the sand barrier strand that separated the bay from the ocean.

Russian forces launched at least one Iskander ballistic missile last night, and one this morning into the Odessa region, the UAF reported both had been shot down. A third Iskander was launched shortly after noon today; the UAF reported that the weapon dispensed cluster munitions into an open field and caused no damage.

The UAF regularly claims that these missiles strike empty fields, which is possible; I have not kept track of the rate at which it has happened but it seems to be fairly frequent, with at least 3 Iskander ballistic missiles striking “open fields” in the last 3 weeks.

Aid

Ukraine signed bilateral security agreements with Czech and Slovenia on the 18th.

The UK has reached an agreement with Ukraine to loan 2 billion pounds ($2..6 billion), for a period of 15 years, for development of national security industrial capacities to include: supply, repair, and partial production of air defence systems, armored vehicles, and ammunition. The aim is to be bring production capabilities on line by 2026.

Sweden announced that it will transfer 13 x diesel-electric generators to Ukraine to help the country work through problems with the power grid caused by Russian rockets.

Politics 

In an interview with the BBC, President Zelenskyy called on the world to pressure Russia to come to the negotiating table. Zelenskyy is letting a little light onto the situation.

"It doesn’t mean that all territories are won back by force. I think the power of diplomacy can help. By putting pressure on Russia, I think it is possible to agree to a diplomatic settlement.”

He also noted that he has no intention of resigning until the war is over.

Mykola Zadorozhnyi, a member of the Verkhovna Rada, who was under suspicion for taking bribes, admitted yesterday that he had, but added that he was not the only one.

"I would like to say to Ms. Iryna Herashchenko (MP from European Solidarity): in your faction there are also people who took bribes and for some reason they also go to the session hall and all work within the limits of the current legislation. Therefore, we will work as the law allows.”

Zadorozhnyi was accused of a series of actions - demanding a bribe, kickbacks for directing contracts to certain parties, etc., that total to more than 3.4 million hryvnia ($82,000).

Zadorozhnyi is currently suspended from work within his party.

A Russian court convicted American and Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich of spying and sentenced him to 16 years in prison.

Gershkovish was arrested March 29th, 2023, while reporting from Yekaterinburg, about 900 miles east of Moscow.

He was accused of spying for the CIA, specifically, collecting intelligence on Uralvagonzavod, which makes Russia’s tanks and armored vehicles. The Uralvagonzavod tank facility, the  largest tank factory in the world, is located about 100 miles north of Yekaterinburg.

Economic Reporting

Feb 22   Mar 7   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Sep8 Feb8 Apr8 Jun7 Jul9 Jul18 Jul19

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      90.95   80.93 90.13 80.06 85.19 84.98 84.76

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      87.77   75.49 86.13 75.81 81.73 82.90 82.53

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15        2.63       1.95 1.83 2.82 2.38 2.04 2.09

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      98.11     91.09 92.69 88.77 88.18 88.05 87.52

Wheat     8.52       12.94    10.71    6.17        6.00     6.02 5.67 6.40 5.71 5.39 5.35

Urals 56.56     74.34    66.28 77.31 67.61 67.61 79.87 80.38

ESPO   67.02     80.88     74.85 85.96 74.63 80.9 77 77

Thoughts

President Zelenskyy’s comments to the BBC seems as if he is trying to find his way, an acknowledgement that there will be no comprehensive battlefield success, and that even if they do mount an offensive this coming winter, it will be bloody, and has perhaps a 50-50 chance of success - at best.

Note that this comes just a day after Zelenskyy vociferously objected to Prime Minister Orban of Hungry’s efforts to generate peace talks.

He also has stated several times in the past week that any settlement must mean Ukraine returning to the borders as stated in 1991, yet here he clearly opened the door to a ceasefire leading to negotiations - which might take years to yield results. 

Gen. Cavoli, COMEUR, commented yesterday that the Ukrainian strategy was working and that at the heart it was about manpowe, making a well trained army out of recruits, while at the same time maintaining Ukraine’s economy. Cavoli of course isn’t going to say anything negative, at least not in public, but the issue of manpower is at the center of the problem: how to produce another 400,000 - 500,000 soldiers, and ensure that they are adequately trained - individually and as units: platoon to company to battalion to brigade, and that they are properly equipped - while also trying to keep the Ukrainian economy functioning.

In the last two weeks Zelensky has noted, as have others, that Ukraine does not have enough equipment to outfit the 10 to 14 new brigades that are being created, nor do they have adequate training ranges to train these units. Nor do they have the equipment and men to plus up all the other units and bring them up to something close to full manning (however they might define that).

The equipment is flowing into the country, but much of it is being chewed up in the never-ending war; manpower is also flowing forward but also is being chewed up, and the training ranges to train these units must include moving forces - whole units - to training ranges in Europe.

In short, the Ukrainian army is months away from having the right numbers with the right equipment and the right training. And the hoped-for F-16s will not be available in adequate numbers for even small area, concentrated support, until early in 2025.

And then there is the possibility of a future President Trump insisting that there should be a ceasefire immediately, followed by negotiations. Zelenskyy also, of course, knows the real casualty statistics.

Perhaps he is just “reading the writing on the wall,” and would prefer to get the peace process going himself rather than have someone else force him to do it.

v/r pete