Friday, July 26, 2024

 Bulldogs, Soccer, and Foreign Policy    (December 3rd, 2023)


One of the marvelous scenes in the movie Man For All Seasons has Thomas More talking to his friend the Duke of Norfolk, about More’s refusal to endorse the King’s divorce of Catherine, or his marriage to Anne Boleyn. In the dialogue that follows More comments on the English nobility’s apathy to their religion, but its fascination with the material world: 

“The English nobility, my Lord, would have snored through the Sermon on the Mount. But you’ll labor like scholars over a bulldog’s pedigree.”

He might have been speaking of American academicians or the experts at Foggy Bottom, even worse, the journalists of the modern media.

Two weeks ago there was summit in the Mid East, with some countries - Iran in particular - pushing for, among other things, refusing to allow the US to remove any munitions or arms stockpiled in their countries if the weapons might be transferred to Israel, as well as threatening an oil embargo - a la 1973. Saudi Arabia held its ground, the summit issued what was labeled a watered-down statement by the press, but basically, Saudi Arabia said “No” as did Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Sudan and the UAE. The key country in all that was Saudi Arabia, whose leadership insisted on what might be called a more balanced approach. If they had folded, who knows what might have happened.

Given how poorly the US has dealt with the Saudis over the past two years, that was substantially more than we should have expected.

But was it really unanticipated? A surprise? No. In fact, it should have been understood. If the State Department, the DC think tank academicians, and the press were paying attention, it would have been something the US might have been better positioned to both support and reward.

Why is that? Consider this development, one that might have been appropriately recognized to great effect, if Foggy Bottom, or the Pentagon, or the press had bothered to pay attention.

On October 2nd this year, the Saudi soccer team Al Ittihad, was in Isfahan, Iran to play Sepahan FC at Naghsh-e Jahan stadium. But the Saudis withdrew from the game just as play was about start. Why? Because there was a bust of Qasem Soleimani, the dead former commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps Quds Force right next to the field. You remember him, he was killed by a hellfire missile on January 3rd, 2020.

To the Saudis, and to most of the Arab world, he was, and still is, the embodiment of evil, a terrorist of the worst sort, who did more to destabilize the Middle East than virtually any other single man. 

The Saudis walked off the field, passing the bust, refusing to play at a field that honored Soleimani.

The Saudi soccer team’s action was not only exemplary, it was an opportunity that we, as allies of the Saudis and as de facto leader of the international community, concerned about stability in the Middle East, should have gone after like a dog going after bone.

Instead, the event was mainly covered on sports pages. It certainly didn’t receive a public “Attaboy” from any senior US government officials. Wouldn’t that have been handy? Would it have been worth it to raise that issue in any discussions? Would it have been a good thing if we had recognized the Saudi soccer players and their stand-up behavior and thanked them for their moral courage?

Especially since 5 days later Hamas attacked Israel and everything started going sideways. Wouldn’t it have been nice to have built up just a little extra good will in the region? 

Apparently not. 

Was the Saudi action even covered in the daily briefs at Foggy Bottom or the Pentagon? Did the intelligence community notice? Did the CIA or the ODNI slip it into the President’s daily brief? Was the CentCom Commander told and made to appreciate the import and then did he pick up the phone and call the Saudi Chief of the General Staff and tell him “well done?”

Perhaps all that happened. But I would bet not.

Meanwhile, the illuminati at Foggy Bottom are probably wrestling over their bulldog pedigrees...


757-582-9182

Wednesday, July 24, 2024

 July 24th, 2024 Next Summary 06 August

Overall 


Ground Operations - Russian gains continue

Politics - Poland, Hungary, Slovakia all have issues


Weather


Kharkiv

79 and sunny, gusting to 20, scattered showers later tonight. Mostly sunny through the weekend, daily lows in the 60s, highs in the 80s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.


Melitopol

83 and partly cloudy, gusting to 20. Partly to mostly cloudy through Friday, followed by 4 sunny days. Daily lows upper 60s, highs in the upper 80s. Winds variable, 5kts through the weekend.


Kyiv

80 and sunny, gusting to 20. Mostly sunny to partly cloudy this week, daily lows in the 60s, daily highs in the 80s. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.


Ground Operations 


North of Kharkiv


Russian forces claimed to have pushed Ukrainian forces out of Hlyboke and driven them back a kilometer south of the town, which given the correlation of forces - decidedly in favor of the Ukrainians around this town - seems unlikely, unless the Russian Air Force was able to establish air control over the town and the army was then successful in pushing the Ukrainian army to the south.


Donets River


Fighting continues along the enter line of contact from Kupyansk to the Donets River, but there was no observed gains on the ground, though Russian bloggers claimed multiple gains the length of the line  North of Bakhmut Russian forces had small, confirmed gains south and south east of Siversk.

Hard fighting continued immediately east and north-east of Chasiv Yar, and Ukrainian sources continue to report an increased tempo of Russian attacks, but there were no confirmed Russian gains in the line.

South of Bakhmut, west of Horlivka, Russian forces remained on the attack, but despite multiple claims of gains in the Niu York area, there are no confirmed gains by Russian forces.


Donetsk City


Russian forces continued to grind forward west and northwest of Donetsk City and Avdiivka, advancing 6 kilometers in the past week in the area of Myrrohrad-Pokrovsk, per Ukrainian sources. 

Ukrainian sources and anecdotal reporting suggest that Russian forces are attacking those  Ukrainian units that already have the highest casualties, rather than attacking the weakest position.  

South-west of Donetsk City Russian forces made small but confirmed gains in Krasnohorivka and continue to push through Heorhivka into Maksymilyanivka. Further to the south, Russian forces also pushed closer to Vodyane, just west of the O-0532 roadway, which runs from Vuhledar to Marinka.


Velyka Novosilke (VN) and Orikhiv


Fighting continues across southern Ukraine, but the only claims of gains were for Russian forces pushing north out of Staromaiorske into Makariivka (due south of VN), and just to the west of Makariivka. Additional claims are that Russian forces were attacking near the small town of Vremvka, which is immediately west of VN. 

This seems like a large dose of hyperbole; if Russian forces have reached Vremivka, then they hooked left around Makarivka and have moved almost 5 miles north of Staromaorske, flanking all the Russian soldiers who are dug in, inside the string of small towns and trenches south of VN.   


Dnepr River


Fighting continues along the east bank and on the islands at the mouth of the river, but there were no confirmed gains or losses.


Air Operations  


Ukrainian forces launched an unknown number of drones into the general area of Crimea and Russian forces claimed to have shot down 21 of the drones. An unconfirmed report suggests that at least 1 Ukrainian drone struck a Russian army communication facility.


On the night of the 22nd Russian forces launched 1 x Iskander M ballistic missile, 1 x Kh-69 cruise missile and 8 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down (both hard and soft kills) the cruise missile and 7 of the drones. The ballistic missile hit “critical infrastructure” in the Odessa region - no further details were provided.

A separate Russian attack caused damage to the power grid around Sumy and left 50,000 homes without power.


Politics and Diplomacy


Hungary’s Foreign Minister Szijjarto commented yesterday that Hungary will block a 6.5 billion Euro ($7.1 billion) transfer out of the European Peace Fund until Kyiv allows Lukoil - a Russian company - push oil through the Druzhba pipeline to Hungary.

The Druzhba pipeline is actually a series of pipes which flow out of Russia, across Belarus and Ukraine, into Europe. One part in particular is set up to feed Hungary; that pipe crosses western Ukraine.

"I made it clear that until this issue is resolved by Ukraine, the payment of 6.5 billion Euros of compensation for weapons from the European Peace Fund should be forgotten about.”


Slovak President Pellegrini and Slovak Defense Minister Kaliňák are also disturbed at Ukraine’s refusal to transport Lukoil petroleum and said that if the situation persists Slovakia will have to react.


Poland’s Defense Minister Kosiniak-Kamysz commented yesterday that Ukraine cannot join the EU until it has “resolved” the “Volyn tragedy.”

"Ukraine cannot join the European Union without resolving the Volyn tragedy issue.”

The Volyn Massacre involved the murder of between 60,000 and 120,000 inhabitants of German occupied Poland, which at the time included much of western Ukraine, between Holy Week, April 1943 and early 1945, carried out by the “Ukrainian Insurgent Army,” a partisan nationalist army that at one time or another fought against virtually everyone else in Ukraine, and was for part of the war allied with Nazi Germany. 

The massacre was particularly gory, with a large percentage of those killed being tortured and butchered rather than being shot.


In a poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, 30% of those polled said they would support some land concessions to Russia if it would bring an end to the war, a number that is more than 3 times what it was last summer.


Economic Reporting


Feb 22   Mar 7   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Jun7 Jul9 Jul23 Jul24

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      80.06 85.19 81.15 81.88

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      75.81 81.73 77.08 77.93

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15      2.82 2.38 2.19 2.11

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      88.77 88.18 87.85 86.70

Wheat     8.52         12.94    10.71    6.17       6.40 5.71 5.48 5.43

Urals 56.56    67.61 67.61 77.56 76.34

ESPO   (SOKOL) 67.02      74.63  75.61 75.13 73.94


It’s not crystal clear why the ruble has strengthened against the dollar in the past week, but one of the more common comments is that the price fluctuations reflect speculation around the coming US election.


Thoughts


The unconfirmed reports that Russian assaults are focused on those units with the highest casualties makes sense in a simple tactical manner, but also would play well in an information warfare campaign: you will be kicked when you are down. And it is, of course, consistent with the attrition warfare that Russia is fighting.

What it also does is force the Ukrainian army to make hard choices: Do units need to come off the line earlier to prevent this sort of exploitation? If so, that would mean replacing this units with newly formed units before they can complete advanced, higher echelon training. Or, it might mean flowing more new troops forward, earlier, before they have finished individual, advanced training. Either way, it will make it more difficult for the Ukrainians to prepare the large force necessary to conduct the winter offensive.

Or, the General Staff can maintain, remaining focused on the winter offensive, while front line units continue to take more casualties, knowing that the bloodier they are the more casualties they will take.

Few easy choices in a war of attrition.


Meanwhile, as the comments from leadership in Poland, Hungary and Slovakia demonstrate, the situation isn’t necessarily getting easier for Kyiv.


v/r pete

Tuesday, July 23, 2024

 July 23rd, 2024

Overall 


Ground Operations - Russian gains continue

Aid - Artillery shells arrive

Politics - Ukraine’s defense spending


Weather


Kharkiv

73 and partly cloudy, scattered showers later tonight. Sunny to partly cloudy all week; daily lows in the mid 60s, highs in the mid to upper 80s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.


Melitopol

79 and sunny. Partly to mostly cloudy all week. Daily lows upper 60s, highs in the upper 80s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.


Kyiv

75 and sunny. Mostly sunny to partly cloudy this week, daily lows in the 60s, daily highs in the 80s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.


Ground Operations 


North of Kharkiv


Fighting continues both north-east and north of Kharkiv.

Due north, near and in Hlyboke, the battle currently is see-sawing back and forth as each side fights for control of that town, each side “trading” blocks of the town on a daily basis and it seems occasionally several times per day. The center of the town is now a “no mans” land and will be ground down into pulp in due course.

To the north-east of Kharkiv, Russian forces made some small gains inside Vovchansk, with observers noting a “100 meter” advance.


Donets River


Reports noted heavy fighting along virtually the entire line of contact from just north Kupyansk southward unit it crosses the Donets River but there were no observed changes in the line.


Bakhmut


North of Bakhmut Russian forces made gains south and south-east of Siverske in what one report called heavy fighting.

Fighting continues to rage immediately east and north-east of Chasiv Yar but there were no changes in the lines in that area. Ukrainian reporting says that the tempo of Russian operations has increased in the last several days.

Further south, Russian forces gained ground in Niu York, pushing across the south side of the town and may have taken the center of the town, though has not yet been confirmed.


Donetsk City


Russian forces reported more gains both north-west and south-west of Avdiivka but none of them have been confirmed.  Reporting when distilled just a bit seems to show the same patterns as before: a unit will make an advance one or two tree-lines, then adjacent units, with the added pressure of the recently advanced units, also attacks and the lines are more or less evened out, preventing any real salient from developing in the line.

Executed almost completely on foot the process is ponderous, but the Russians continue to grind slowly forward. 

Russian forces also claimed ground gains south-west of Donetsk city and there were some small gains confirmed in western Krasnohorivka as well as in eastern Maksymilyanivka, the next town west of Heoriivka, suggesting that claims of gains in that town (Heoriivka) while not confirmed, are probably more accurate than not.

Russian forces also appear to be slowly rolling up the land east of the T0504 roadway that runs from Vuhledar to Marinka.

Another M1 Abrams was lost in the general area west of Avdiivka.


Velyka Novosilke (VN) and Orikhov


Fighting continues across the length of the southern front but there were no confirmed changes in the lines. 


Dnepr River


Small unit (squad sized) raids, skirmishes and artillery and exchanges continued along the Dnepr River and on the islands, but there were no changes to the disposition of forces.


Air and Maritime Operations 


Ukrainian naval and special services elements conducted a strike on the Russian port of Kavkaz - just east of the Kerch Strait on the Sea of Azov - and left the railroad ferry “Slavyanin” on fire.

Slavyanin is reportedly the last of what were 3 railroad ferries servicing Crimea. 




452376012_835248255454921_5269731291636057790_n.jpg






Russian air defense forces claimed to have shot down 25 Ukrainian drones last night, 21 of them over Crimea.


Ukrainian forces conducted drone strikes on Russian oil facilities in Krasnodar Krai (the region on the east side of the Kerch Strait) on the night of the 21st and some damage was confirmed  to the Tuapse oil refinery (just down the coast on the Black Sea) but how much that will affect production at the refry, and for how long, is not yet clear.

Aid


Ukrainian PM Shmyhal reported that the first 50,000 x 155MM howitzer shells from the Czech led ammunition initiative have arrived in Ukraine and are already reaching the front lines.


Politics and Diplomacy


Ukrainian defense spending for the first 6 months of 2024 totaled $21.5 billion. Defense spending for 2021 was just under $6 billion. In 2022 it jumped to $44 billion, $61 billion in 2023, and is expected to total about $42 billon this year. Ukraine’s GDP is expected to reach about $178 billion this year/ Total government spending for 2023 was $82 billion, for 2021 it was $33 billion.


The Ukrainian government reports that 3,800 prisoners have already joined the Ukrainian army and that many have already completed basic training and some have already seen combat and that they have had casualties.

The current estimate is that ams many as 5,000 prisoners will volunteer for mobilization.


Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba is in China in an effort to convince Beijing to distance itself from Russia, and discuss what China might do to help end the war.


A member of the Supervisors Board of Ukrenergo (the Ukrainian Energy Agency) commented today that Ukraine will be unable to restore all lost electrical power before winter.

"It’s quite obvious that it will not be possible to fully restore what has been damaged or destroyed before the heating season… I still can’t explain how the equipment at some of the facilities is still working. But at many plants that have been repeatedly damaged, we’ve managed to bring some of the equipment back into operation.”

DTEK, the largest privately owned  energy company in Ukraine announced that it expected to restore 60 - 70% of its electricity generation capacity by winter, assuming no more damage from future Russian missile strikes.


Economic Reporting


Feb 22   Mar 7   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Jun7 Jul9 Jul22 Jul23

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      80.06 85.19 82.34 81.15

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      75.81 81.73 79.81 77.08

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15      2.82 2.38 2.20 2.19

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      88.77 88.18 87.82 87.85

Wheat     8.52         12.94    10.71    6.17       6.40 5.71 5.43 5.48

Urals 56.56    67.61 67.61 79.30 77.56

ESPO   (SOKOL) 67.02      74.63  75.61 75.61 75.13


The Hryvnia rate fell to 41.8 to the dollar yesterday, a decrease n value of 14.8% since it was floated last October.


Thoughts


The ground war continues and Russian forces grind forward.

Officially, Ukrainian mobilization is proceeding smoothly and they are building an expanded army, with 12 additional combat brigades.

Unofficially, there are growing concerns that an already weak economy, held up by foreign money’s will grow weaker with an additional 400,000 - 500,000 men pulled from the workforce. 

At the same time, reports continue to circulate - some clearly Russian disinformation, others, clearly true - of civilian resistance to the mobilization. 

It is interesting that the Ukrainian press reacted very positively to news that VP Harris raised more than $100 million in seemingly the blink of an eye and they are now more comfortable talking about the US election, with Trump’s victory now less certain than it seemed on Saturday.

All of which circles around to point out the obvious, that Ukraine cannot begin to assure its own survival, and is trapped in Blanche Dubois’ foreign policy… “I have always depended on the kindness of strangers.”


v/r pete