August 13th, 2024 

Overall  

Ground Operations - Sumy Border - Ukraine continues to advance

- Marginal Russian gains continue

Diplomacy - US: No Leverage with Russia

Weather

Kharkiv

70 and partly cloudy, gusting near 20. Partly cloudy to sunny all week; daily lows in the mid to upper 50s, daily highs upper 70s to low 80s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

76 and sunny, gusting to 20. Sunny through next week; daily lows near 60, daily highs in the mid 80s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

59 and sunny, gusting to 20. partly cloudy. Mostly sunny for the rest of the week, lows in the lower 50s, highs upper 70s to low 80s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Ground Operations  

Kursk Oblast Incursion

Ukrainian forces (the total force appears to be 8 x brigades, but the actual strength of each brigade is unknown) continue to make gains to the north and east, but the extent is far from clear. Ukrainian Armored Cav elements are still moving rapidly around in the Russian rear, continuing to not engage at most times, but engaging from time to time when they run into smaller units. This has generated a good deal of reporting and the Russians have had a hard time keeping track of it all, which is in part, the point of the action. 

Additional Ukrainian forces pushed across the border near Slobodka-Ivanovka (40 miles north-west of Sumy) and Tetkino (about 25 miles north-west of Sumy), as well as several spots due north of Sumy and at least one spot south-east of Sumy. There are reports from various Russian bloggers that another half-dozen border towns have been seized by the Ukrainians. It’s not clear if the Ukrainians are holding any of the positions or simply trying to keep the Russians off balance.

There are reports of Russian forces counter-attacking in the north-west and west of the min incursion, and gaining some ground in Snagost and Korenov, but this is by no means confirmed.

Additional reporting indicates a battalion sized Ukrainian attack south of Lgov, as the Ukrainian controlled terrain continues to expand.

Further south, it now appears that Ukrainian forces control most, perhaps all, of Sudzha and pushed east across the Psel River and then made a raid into Giri (south-east of Sduzha), before they were stopped. Whether they remain in or near Giri, or withdrew westward is not known, but the size of the force was smaller and they probably withdrew.

Ukrainian forces report that Russian forces are now conducting 40-50 glide-bomb airstrikes per day in the Sumy area.

Putin, as one would expect, has been conducting a series of meetings over the past several days, attempting to both understand and control the situation, and as would be expected in most governments, assigning responsibilities - which can also translate into assigning blame. The Ministry of Defense has been given the task of pushing Ukrainian forces out of Russia, while FSB (state security) is responsible for defeating Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups, and Rosgvardia (national guard) for basic border security.

Kursk Oblast Governor Smirnov told Moscow that civilian casualties now stand at 12 killed, and 121 wounded, with 121,000 citizens evacuated. Another 12,000 Russian citizens have been evacuated in neighboring Belgorod oblast.

North of Kharkiv

Fighting continues along the border both north and north-east of Kharkiv and Russian forces made small gains in Vovchansk

Donets River

Russian forces claimed more gains south-east of Kupyansk, but these could not be confirmed.

Bakhmut

North of Bakhmut Ukrainian forces made small gains south-east of Siversk, but Russian forces remain on the attack across this entire area.

Russian forces gained some ground north of Chasiv Yar but fighting remains focused on holding (for the Ukrainians) or pushing across (if you’re the Russians) the Donets canal.  Russian ground gains will improve their positions just east of the canal, but Ukrainians still hold the canal. 

Further south, Russian forces moved to close up the pocket north-east of Niu York after Ukrainian forces appear to have withdrawn to the west on the 11th. At the same time Ukrainian forces moved into the western edge of Niu York and appear to have retaken a small slice of the town. 

Donetsk City

Russian forces continue to push westward toward Pokrovsk, with confirmed gains in Ivanivka (12 miles east of Pokrovsk) and more gains in the vicinity of Krodivka (9 miles east of Pokrovsk). Reporting also suggests Russian gains to the north and south of the main thrust to Pokrovsk, as the Russians continue their efforts to broaden these salients.

West and south-west of Donetsk City fighting continues along the entire line of contact, and Russian forces continue to try to push through Krasnohorvika to the west and north, but there were no confirmed changes in terrain held.

Velyka Novosilke (VN), Orikhiv, and the Dnepr RIver.

Fighting continues across southern Ukraine along the entire line of contact, but there were no confirmed gains anywhere. Part of this is due to a drop in the volume of reporting on these areas as the various bloggers, etc., focus on the activities south-west of Kursk.

Air Operations 

Russian forces launched at least 2 x Islander class ballistic missiles into Odessa and Nikolaev oblasts; there were no damage reports.

Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike against Chkalovsky Air Base (about 20 miles north-east of Moscow) on the 12th; Russian air defense reported intercepting Ukraine drones in the area. Whether any got through is not clear.  Chkalovsky Air Base is a Russian flight test center as well as the home field 8th Special Purpose Aviation Division, which operates a number of special purpose aircraft as well as some executive transport aircraft.

Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike against the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant; this was conducted after the fire (burning tires) was apparently brought under control.

Russian sources insist the original fire was started by Ukrainians, the Ukrainians claim that it was started by Russians. The IAEA personnel on scene only commented that “reckless attacks must stop,”  and did not attempt to assign blame for specific events.

Politics and Diplomacy

Former US Ambassador to Moscow, John Sullivan told Foreign Policy Magazine that the US has no leverage with which to influence Moscow.

"If there were something we could do to pressure Russia to bend to our will, we would’ve already done that on Ukraine. What are we going to threaten them with now? If I could come up with better sticks, we’d already be using them on Ukraine now.”

Ukrainian state prosecutors have arrested one of the 4 deputy ministers of energy after he reportedly accepted a $500,000 bribe that was to be payment for assistance in moving coal handling equipment from near the front lines.

The name was not released, but paperwork showed that deputy energy minister Oleksandr Kheilo was fired yesterday “with immediate effect.”.

Economic Reporting

Feb 22   Mar 7   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Jun7 Jul9 Aug8 Aug12 Aug13

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      80.06 85.19 78.02 80.38 81.85

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      75.81 81.73 75.03 77.72 79.68

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15      2.82 2.38 2.08 2.24 2.18

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      88.77 88.18 86.98 90.81 93.11

Wheat     8.52       12.94    10.71    6.17       6.40 5.71 5.38 5.43 5.37

Urals 56.56    67.61 67.61 72.14 74.95 74.95

SOKOL   67.02      74.63  75.61 70.82 71.75 71.75

Thoughts

What next for Russia?

Bloomberg is reporting that there is a deficit of manpower for the Russian army. 

At the same time FrontIntelligence reports that the average age the Russian army is climbing, with the average age of those KIA now 38.

While Ukraine has also been taking very high casualties, and the average age of a  Ukrainian soldier is above 42, and Ukraine’s population is now estimated as approximately 34 million (and is possibly less, thus slightly less than 1/4th that of Russia’s), Ukraine has been under martial law and a full mobilization since February 2022, and claims that it has all the manpower it needs. Ukraine is reportedly maintaining an army of a bit more than 1 million men; Russia’s total army is a bit larger, but forces committed to the war in Ukraine number just a bit over 500,000.

If these various numbers and reports are correct, Russia is going to face a manpower crunch in the near term, forcing the Kremlin to make some hard choices, which might include a negotiated settlement, or full mobilization, or a change in tactics such as going after the bridges across the Dnepr as well as several key railroad bridges, or perhaps escalation and the use of other weapons, or a mix of the above.

At the same time, it’s worth noting that a Ukrainian army spokesman commented that there was no observed change in the Russian level of effort inside Ukraine after the start of the incursion into the Kursk region…

v/r pete