August 14th, 2024 

Overall  

Ground Operations - Sumy Border - Ukraine continues to advance

- Elsewhere Marginal Russian gains continue

Politics - Nord Stream Arrest Warrant

Weather

Kharkiv

74 and sunny, gusting to 20. Partly cloudy to sunny all week; daily lows in the mid to upper 50s, daily highs upper 70s to low 80s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

76 and sunny, gusting to 20. Sunny through next week; daily lows near 60, daily highs in the mid 80s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

72 and sunny, gusting to 20. partly cloudy. Mostly sunny for the rest of the week, lows in the lower 50s, highs upper 70s to low 80s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Ground Operations  

Kursk Incursion

Ukrainian forces continued to advance to the north and east; there have been several claims by various offices as to how much terrain and how many “towns” the army controls, though the definition of “control” might be an issue - have they seized and cleared a town and set up defensive positions, brought in troops and supplies and established a resupply line to sustain those forces? Or did they just go tearing through the town in 4 or 5 Bradley fighting vehicles? Or is it somewhere in between? 

The answer, of course, is mainly “somewhere in between.” And the Russians are counter-attacking, so the lines are moving.

Ukraine claims to have gained another 15 sq miles of terrain (40 sq KM) which would bring the total area taken by Ukrainian forces to about 1,040 sq km - 400 sq miles, though Gen. Syrskyi noted only the they had moved the lines 1 -2 km, suggesting Russia resistance was increasing. A look at the map and some areas that are obvious no-mans land, suggest that there is a bit more than half of that area is under Ukrainian control - call it 250 sq mi., and the rest is mostly no man’s land or, as I said the other day, land that isn’t under Russian control.

Overall, for the Ukrainians to hold onto this terrain they will need to bring in the entrenching machinery and start digging bunkers and fighting positions. At the same time they must set up a supply lines that can keep food, fuel, ammo and new troops flowing to these units. They will also need to move enough surface to air missile systems forward to continue to deny the airspace to the RuAF. Presumably they are doing all this, though there is insufficient reporting to confirm any of that.

On the west side of the incursion Ukrainian forces made gains north of Snagost - though the Russians apparently do control some or most of the town itself, and there is fighting noted south, east and just a short distance north-east of Korenovo. Ukrainian forces were last confirmed to have reached the vicinity of Alekseevsky (almost 20 miles north-north-east of the border, and Ukrainian forces (7 x IFVs) again pushed out south-east from Sudzha and reached Giri yesterday and that element is attempting to hold the town, waiting for reinforcements.

Inside Sudzha Ukrainian forces have pushed across the Psel River and appear to control most of the town east of the river; there are pockets of Russian forces remaining in the town, on the west side of the river.

Other reporting suggests that Russian forces are counter-attacking south-east of Sudzha, and that there are cross-border skirmishes to the south-east along the Ukraine- Belgorod Oblast border, but the size and depth of these skirmishes varies and it does not appear that the Ukrainians are holding any territory.

Unconfirmed reporting also has Ukraine forces taking 2,000 Russian prisoners, but it should be remembered that the area was guarded by Rostvgardia (Russian national guard) troops with very little training.

Total evacuations now reportedly number over 200,000 civilians.

North of Kharkiv

Fighting was reported both north and north-east of Kharkiv but there were no confirmed gains or losses by either side. Fighting in Vovchansk appears to be focused on the “high-rise” apartments (8 - 10 floors) that have been turned into hardened fighting positions by the Ukrainian engineers. The only item of note is that Ukrainian forces reported that Russian forces brought in an additional tank regiment to the Hlyboke area (due north of Kharkiv), though this is probably not an addition but a de facto replacement of one of the regiments in the area, the three regiments committed to this immediate area have been there since May.

Donets River

Fighting continued along the line of contact and Russian reporting claimed gains near Tabaivka, but these have not been confirmed.

Bakhmut

Ukrainian forces gained ground south-east of Siversk (15 miles north of Bakhmut), while Russian forces continue to attack just outside of Bilohorivka.

West of Bakhmut Russian forces continue to squeeze out small gains immediately north of Chasiv Yar (east of the canal) but Ukrainian forces continue to hold on the canal. Just south of Bakhmut Russian forces appear to have made some gains just west of Klishchivka in the grinding fight for the high ground just outside that town.

Further south, west of Horlivka, Russian forces continue to attack but for the first time in several days there were no confirmed gains by the Russian forces either immediately east of Toretsk or in the Niu York area. Unconfirmed reporting suggests the Russian continue to close up the pocket north-east of Niu York as the last of the Ukrainian forces now appear to have withdrawn.

Donetsk City

Russian forces continue to press toward Pokrovsk and it now appears that the Russians have control over Ivanivka (about 11 miles east of Pokrovsk) and are advancing on a line roughly from Malynivka southward through Yelyzavetivka and Hrodivka to Zhelanne, with operations taking place in towns both east and west of that line. Of import is that they are now about 20,000 meters from Pokrovsk; the effective firing range of a 152MM howitzer firing the least expensive ammunition is about 17,500 meters (max range is 24,000 meters). 

South-west of Donetsk Russian forces have confirmed gains in Kostyantynivka and hard fighting is taking place in Vodyane as Russian forces appear to have reached and  secured the T-0524 roadway in a second spot.

Southern Ukraine

Fighting continues in the Velyka Novosilke and Orikhiv areas, as well as along the banks of the Dnepr. Ukrainian forces appear to have regained some ground north-west of Verbove.

Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP)

The IAEA reported that it cannot confirm the cause of the fire on August 11th, drawing a rebuke from Russia’s Permanent Representative for the inability to provide a complete assessment. Russia asserts that the fire was caused by a Ukrainian drone strike.

Russian forces seized the ZNPP in early March 2022; in July of 2022 artillery fire, to include battlefield rockets, struck inside the facility (but did not, and have not, stuck the reactors). Since then this has happened aperiodically. Both sides have accused the other for the strikes. The IAEA has refused to point a finger, simply calling for the “demilitarization” of the facility.

Russian forces have never had less than a battalion-sized contingent of security and support personnel at the ZNPP. Ukraine asserts that the Russians are engaged in false flag activity, Russia asserts that they have their people there, and they don’t want to the destroy the facility in any case. The IAEA has never pointed a finger at either side.

Air Operations 

Ukrainian forces launched 117 drones into Russian air space Tuesday night (there is no final count); Russian forces claimed they shot down 117 drones; but damage was reported at 4 separate Russian airfields: Voronezh (SU-24s and SU-34s), Kursk (mixed fighter aircraft and attack helo dets), Savasleyka (MiG-31s), and Borisoglebsk (SU-25s).

There was no report on number of aircraft damaged, if any.

Russian forces launched 2 x Iskander class ballistic missiles and 38 x Shahed drones into Ukrainians airspace on the night of the 12th and early morning of the 13th. The UAF claimed it shot down 30 drones. There was no report of the ballistic missile strike or the strike of the other 8 drones.

RuAF assets continued to conduct strikes with glide bombs in the Kursk and Sumy area; totals have been above 40 per day but there is no report on yesterday’s totals.

Politics - Nord Stream Pipeline

German Prosecutor General Jens Rommel has issued an arrest warrant for a Ukrainian named Volodymyr (last name not released), who is listed as a suspect in the September 26,  2022 Nord Stream bombing.

Volodymyr is a diving instructor, was living in the town of Pruszków (west of Warsaw) and was seen in a white Citroen that was connected with the crew of the yacht Andromeda.

There are two other suspects, a Ukrainian man and a Ukrainian woman.

German reporters contacted Volodymyr by phone in June and he denied any connection. He has since disappeared.

Following this announcement, Anna Adamiak, the spokeswoman of the Prosecutor General of Poland, commented that: "The man crossed the Polish-Ukrainian border at the beginning of July.”

Economic Reporting

Feb 22   Mar 7   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Jun7 Jul9 Aug8 Aug13 Aug14

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      80.06 85.19 78.02 81.85 81.20

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      75.81 81.73 75.03 79.68 78.83

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15      2.82 2.38 2.08 2.18 2.16

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      88.77 88.18 86.98 93.11 91.32

Wheat     8.52       12.94    10.71    6.17       6.40 5.71 5.38 5.37 5.29

Urals 56.56    67.61 67.61 72.14 74.95 76.94

SOKOL   67.02      74.63  75.61 70.82 71.75 74.04

Thoughts

Two issues. First, the Kursk incursion.

Are the Russians moving forces from inside Ukraine?

Some Russian bloggers are reporting that some Russian units - all of them “irregular” units (militias, etc. not Russian army) are now being moved from inside Ukraine to support the response the Kursk incursion. These units get publicity but are not critical to the Russian assault. The only irregular units that really contributed to the attack over the past 2+ years were the penal colony units that the Wagner Group used to good, if bloody, effect around Bakhmut last year, letting them take the bulk of the casualties as the Wagner Group slowly advanced through the city.

There has also been reports of several Naval Infantry regiments as well as operational reserves being moved from the Kharkiv area, and elements of various regiments and brigades being moved, but these moves not been confirmed. If so, it will not immediately affect the operations along the front lines in Ukraine but will take several weeks to manifest itself as separate from the normal “see-saw” rhythm of daily operations.

Finally, Lithuania’s Defense Minister reported that some Russian troops were departing Kaliningrad - suggesting they are headed to Kursk.

It can be expected that the Russians will attempt to stop the advance very quickly, moving a preponderance of force into the area. It would seem that they would want enough assets in place - ground and air, to quickly stop the Ukrainian advance and then seize the initiative and start pushing them back, not giving the Ukrainians time to prepare defenses or set up an air defense grid to deny the air space to the RuAF.  It is still by no means clear who will win that “race,” Ukraine or Russia.

But Syrskyi’s comment that they only advanced a kilometer or 2 suggests movement is getting more difficult as the Russians flow forces into the fight. Once it slows down the Ukrainians need to dig in fast.

The second issue is the Nord Stream bombing investigation by the Germans. They have issued a warrant, and the man is now back in Ukraine. Will Ukraine make this man available to the ally who has given the 2nd greatest amount of weapons, and the 2nd most fiscal support (behind the US in both cases)?

v/r pete