August 19th, 2024 

Overall  

Ground Operations - Syrskyi’s Raid  - Ukraine continues to advance

- Three bridges dropped

Politics - Incursion and talks

Weather

Kharkiv

93 and sunny. Mostly sunny through the week; daily lows in the mid 60s, daily highs in the mid 90s. Winds, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

92 and partly cloudy. Sunny to party cloudy all week, daily lows in the upper 60s, daily highs in the 90s. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

95 and sunny, gusting over 20. Partly cloudy for the week, daily lows low to mid 60s, daily highs upper 80s to low 90s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Ground Operations

While the two sides are tactically engaged across most of the incursion into Kursk Oblast (as well as the line of contact in occupied Ukraine), there were no dramatic movements of forces. Perhaps the most significant tactical development was the Ukrainian strikes on three separate bridges, both slowing Russian movements and in one case isolating a Russian battalion (minus). As a general rule, advancing armies keep bridges, defending armies drop bridges. While not dispositive, Ukrainian forces cutting bridges suggests (doesn't prove) that the Ukrainian forces have the piece of Russian terrain they want and, while they may continue to grind north, east and west, they will also be digging in and developing defensive positions.

At the same time, there was one strategic development: Germany announced it will provide no more funding to Ukraine, in the wake of the warrants for the arrest of a Ukrainian citizen who is alleged to have taken part in the destruction of the Nord Stream pipelines, and the recent story in the Wall Street Journal that implicates Ukrainian leadership. This is discussed a bit more below, in thoughts.

Kursk Salient - Syrskyi’s Raid

Ukrainian forces continue to grind out marginal gains on both the west and east sides of the salient, gaining control of Troitskoye on the western edge (near the border), and reaching Martynovka (3 miles north-east of Subzha), and Semenovka (8 miles south-east of Subzha) in the east. Fighting is also reported further south and east along an arc from Giri to Borki and the Ukrainian - Russian border.

While it isn't clear that the Ukrainians have complete control of all this terrain, Ukrainian forces - Cav units - continue to operate across virtually all of out and the Ukrainian forces appear to be digging out the last isolated pockets of Russian soldiers inside the salient.

At the same time Ukrainian air and missile strikes dropped three bridges across the Seim River, west of the salient (in Karyzh, Zvannoe, and Glushkovo), which would seem to inhibit Russian logistics support to units operating west of the salient and below the Seim - that is, just north of the border.

There is limited reporting but it does appear that the Russian have pulled some forces from occupied Ukraine, with the Wall Street Journal noting a number of under-strength brigades with a Toal of 5,000 soldiers have bene moved to the Kursk area. Current Ukrainian forces are estimated at 6,000 soldiers inside Russia (elements of at least 5 brigades). While it is assumed that they are doing so, there has not been any reporting of Ukrainian forces bringing in engineers to build defensive positions. Russian engineers are building defensive position well north and outside the salient.

North of Kharkiv

Fighting continued in both the small pockets controlled by Russian forces, north and north-east of Kharkiv, but there were no confirmed gains by either side.

North of the Donets

Fighting continued along the entire line of contact, but the only confirmed changes were Russian gains just north of Makiivka (about half way between Kreminna and Svatove, along the Zherebets River)

Bakhmut

Fighting in the Bakhmut area shows some give and take, with Ukrainian forces regaining ground south-east of Siversk over the weekend, and they appear to be pushing on Ivano-Darivka (about 5 miles south-east of Siversk). Fighting continues west of that town.

Fighting also continued west and immediately south of Bakhmut but there were no reported gains or losses.

West of Horlivka Russian forces appear to have taken most, if not all of Niu York as well as closing up the pocket to the north-east, between Niu York and Zalizhne the last Ukrainians having been forced to withdraw. Gains were also claimed a bit further north, as Russian forces pushed west from Pivnichne. 

Donetsk City

West of Donetsk City Russian forces continue to push toward Pokrovsk, and while most of the claims remain unconfirmed, Russian sources report more small villages taken by Russian forces every day. Claims now include control of a series of small towns to he south-east and the Russian line appears to be a north-south line, just east of Hrodivka, about 8 miles east of Pokrovsk, with one column of Russian troops, located just south of Hrodivka, about 7 miles from Pokrovsk.

In response to this Russian advance, Ukraine has ordered the forced evacuation of families with children from Pokrovsk; there are some 4,000 children in the Pokrovsk area.

South-west of Donetsk City Russian forces continue to report gains as they press westward but none of the claims are confirmed.

Nevertheless, the Russian effort continues in this area and there are enough details in some of the reports that suggest that the Russians continue to grind out small gains in the town and villages from Krasnohorivka and Konstyanivak, south to the Vuhledar area.

Of note, while Vuhledar remains an Ukrainian stronghold, much of eastern Ukraine sits on top of a series of mines (coal, salt, gypsum, etc.) and these mines have been turned into foundations (literal and figurative) of large bunker complexes. Russian reporting over the weekend claimed that Russian forces gained control of the Ventilation shaft for Pivdennodonbaska Number 1 Coal mine, about 2 miles north-east from Vuhledar, along the 0532 roadway. The shaft sits at the rough center of a small industrial complex about 200 x 500 yds in size.

Pivdennodonbaska Number 1 is one of the larger coal mines in Ukraine, with estimated reserves of 69 million tons, and was, before the war, producing 1.2 million metric tons of coal per year. Before the war forced the mine into mothball status, it employed 2200 men. The mine itself is 1350 feet deep.

Southern Ukraine

There is limited reporting coming out of southern Ukraine, only saying that there have been Russian offensive operations around Robotyne, and along the Dnepr River, and some “artillery dueling,” but little else. This reflect the shift of focus of bloggers and other reporters to the Kursk salient.

Air Operations

Ukrainian forces struck an oil depot in Proletarsk, Rostov (about 130 miles east of the Sea of Azov) over the weekend and left it burning, but there is no damage assessment yet.

Russian forces launched 3 x Iskander class ballistic missiles , 2 x Kh-59 cruise missiles, 3 x unidentified cruise missiles and 8 x Shahed drones at Ukrainian targets. The UAF claimed it shot down 2 x ballistic missiles, 3 cruise missiles and all the drones. While not clear if this was related, a drone strike was reported at a power grid substation in Dnipropetrovsk.

Of note, President Zelenskyy commented that during the last week Russian forces had launched “40 missiles, 200 drones, and 759 glide bombs” against Ukrainian targets 

Politics and Diplomacy

Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov commented on President Putin and the incursion into Kursk:

"The president said it very clearly that following attacks, or even incursion, on the Kursk Region, any talks are impossible. The president also said a very important thing and I would like to draw attention to it that we will give an assessment of this situation later.”

"And as for the rumors that has been spreading in recent time about some clandestine contacts to prepare talks, Qatar-brokered talks on issues of Russian and Ukrainian energy facilities or rumors that our Turkish neighbors are planning to try to be mediators in the sphere of food security but in the context of ensuring free navigation in the Black Sea, you should understand the real goal of such schemes. This is done in the wake of the Burgenstock conference, which yielded a decision to set up three working groups - on energy, on food in the context of safe navigation, and on humanitarian issues (prisoner exchanges and so on).”

Aid

In the wake of the investigation into the Nord Stream pipeline explosion (September 26, 2022),and the issuing of a warrant last week to arrest a Ukrainian diving instructor, the German government announced that it will not provide any aide to Ukrainian in 2025.

Bonn did, however, make it clear that it would provide all, already-promised, aid.

To that end, over the weekend Germany transferred more air defense assets to Ukraine, as well as other equipment:

1 x  IRIS-T SLS anti-aircraft system

14,000 x 155-mm artillery rounds

10 x surface drones

26 x VECTOR reconnaissance drones + spare parts

EOD equipment;

6 x excavators

55,000 x first aid kits

700 MK x 556 assault rifles

10 x HLR 338 high-precision rifles + ammo

50 x CR 308 assault rifles

PM Modi of India will visit Kyiv on 23 August, and anonymous sources report that he has agreed to pass messages between President Zelenskyy and President Putin.

The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense reported that there are now 930,000 Ukrainians who have registered for military service and they expect to reach 1 million by the end of next week. The MOD noted that it requires 3 to 6 months to take a new recruit and give him basic training. The MOD also estimated that Russian recruitment will total 800,000 by the end of the year.

Economic Reporting

Feb 22   Mar 7   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Jun7 Jul9 Aug8 Aug16 Aug19

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      80.06 85.19 78.02 79.32 79.05

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      75.81 81.73 75.03 76.34 76.01

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15      2.82 2.38 2.08 2.16 2.16

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      88.77 88.18 86.98 89.05 90.15

Wheat     8.52       12.94    10.71    6.17       6.40 5.71 5.38 5.50 5.53

Urals 56.56    67.61 67.61 72.14 76.03 77.00

SOKOL   67.02      74.63  75.61 70.82 73.43 72.00

Thoughts

The recent resurfacing of the Nord Stream bombing has resulted in Germany announcing that they will provide no aid to Ukrainian in 2025. As you will recall, Germany had already said that they were cutting aid to just $4 billion, from over $8 billion in 2024.

In the grand scheme of things, the $4 billion will be made up, whether by the US or EU. And while some countries - Poland and Norway, for example, viewed the Nord Stream as a competitor - others are likely to view high energy costs and a less robust energy market in Europe as a high price to pay and may view Germany’s actions as a Reason to step back their own support of Ukraine. In short, Ukrainian support just became bit more precarious.

As one analyst noted, Ukraine’s actions (he is presuming that the Ukrainians did in fact participate in the bombing of the pipeline) would, if conducted overtly by some other country, constitute grounds for invoking NATO Article V.

At the same time a State Department  spokesman is quoted by Defense One that a number of US defense contractors are hesitant to begin joint production of various weapons and systems inside Ukraine as “questions remain about the safety of doing business in a war zone, the persistence of corruption, and the long-term business case.”

Ukraine managed to shake up the entire calculus of the war with the successful thrust into Kursk Oblast and yet within just a few days Bonn may have turned the situation on its head again with the issuing of the arrest warrant for the Ukrainian diver.

Concerns about corruption, a Ukrainian plan to blow up a pipeline that feds energy to Europe, a president unable to control his own army, and now a high risk attack into Russia. Kyiv has a lot on its plate.

v/r pete