Club Gaza    (October 15th, 2023)

While the Israelis pursue their plan to sweep through Gaza, the question that bugs me is this: what is the long term solution to the Gaza Strip? As I see it, there are four major paths forward for Gaza - in no particular order (there are others, but these appear to be the major options going forward):

• They can continue to suffer under the rule of HAMAS and their ilk
• They can leave
• They can all unite and decide to invade Israel
• They can decide to make life better

For the foreseeable future invading Israel is probably not going to work well.

They can leave, but the sad truth is that no one wants them. Everyone talks a good game, but if you’ve spent any time in the Mid East and bothered to sit and have a cup of tea with someone from Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, etc., you will find that they all think something needs to be done about this problem, as long as it doesn't involve moving Palestinians into their country. Every country in the region has Palestinians living among them, no one wants any more (and most probably would jump at the chance to move their Palestinians someplace else).

They can always choose to do nothing, and just keep suffering. This is the usual course of action for people throughout history. David Hume, the Scottish philosopher, observed that all governments are, in one way or another, the ones that the people are willing to accept. Too oppressive and the people will - eventually - overthrow it. Even very oppressive dictatorships are, at least initially, accepted by their people. When the oppression becomes so severe, and the living conditions so horrible that they’re literally intolerable, the bulk of the citizens will act to change the government. 

But, as was noted in our own Declaration of Independence: Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn, that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. 

And people will suffer a very great deal. If you want to see how terrible it can get without an uprising, look at North Korea - it’s worse than Gaza, a good deal worse.

But, to recap, they probably aren’t going anywhere, and they probably aren’t going to successfully invade Israel and occupy it any time soon. 

All of which leaves getting rid of the long string of grossly incompetent governments that have run Gaza off and on for a half a century, and fix it.

But, that isn’t possible; the Gaza Strip, after all, is a mess and can’t be fixed.

• One of the highest population densities on earth…. 48,000 / square mile
• A tiny land, doomed to overcrowding
• A much larger, much wealthier nation crowding their borders
• A thin sliver of land on the ocean
• Except for being on the ocean, no natural resources

Oops sorry, wrong notes, that’s Monaco.

Monaco: A land with far fewer natural resources than Gaza, and 3 times the population density; Gaza’s population density is only about 17,000 per square mile.

And Monaco has a per capita income that may be the highest in the world; the World Bank isn't certain, there are no hard numbers - just an estimate, but the estimate is that Monaco’s per capita income is about 30% higher than Lichtenstein’s, generally held to be the highest in the world.

Monaco was under the control of Mussolini early in WWII and then the Vichy  French, and then later the NAZIs and was falling apart by the end of the war and it wasn’t until Prince Rainier III came to power in 1949 that an effort was made to turn the country around - which he did. There are many points that make Monaco unique, but the fact is that a tiny piece of land, on the ocean, does not need to be a slum. What could you do with a little investment and some hard work? What indeed?

Israel was a waste land when the Jews of Europe showed up after the war. The bulk of them didn’t have, as my mother would say, two dimes to rub together. They were an economic basket case. They now have a $500 billion GDP, 29th in the world. In the Mid East or North Africa only Saudi Arabia has a larger GDP. The country is nearly devoid of natural resources, just like Gaza. Offshore natural gas despots were first exploited less than 20 years ago (2004). Israel, by the way, minus the Negev Desert and the 250,000 people living there, has a population density of about 3,000 per square mile. Better than Gaza to be sure, but still, densely packed. But Israel now has the world’s 18th highest per capita GDP.

The Gaza Strip is a mess not because Israel has done this to them, but because the small cliques of maniacal narcissists who have run the strip, and “led” the Palestinians for the last half a century and more have used the poor of the Gaza Strip as pawns in their political maneuvering. The Gaza Strip receives several billion in aid every year, yet nothing seems to improve. The per capita GDP is $5,600 per year (higher than Ukraine’s) but that is an average, 30% of the population lives below the poverty line, the few at the top are squeezing everyone on the bottom.

The Gaza Strip is a mess because it benefits those in charge to keep it that way. They have 25 miles of Mediterranean water front and yet they are mainly a giant slum. It could be a garden spot. The long term solution to Gaza isn’t going to be found in Hamas or the PFLP or Hizballah or any of the rantings of the lunatic fringe who wish to kill Israelis - and are willing to kill lots of Palestinians to do it. Gaza could be a giant Club Med and the people of Gaza could all have decent jobs and their kids could grow up without constant worry about gunfights and demands that they be ready for martyrdom. The first step is that the people of Gaza need to get rid of the “leaders” who have been abusing them for as long as anyone can remember. Hard work will do the rest.