August 23rd, 2024
Overall
Tomorrow is Ukraine’s Independence Day
Ground Operations - Ukraine continues small advances in Kursk
- Russia continues advances in Donbas, nearing Pokrovsk
Diplomacy - Modi in Kyiv, calls for peace talks
Weather
Kharkiv
83 and mostly cloudy. Partly cloudy to sunny for the next week; daily lows in the upper 60s, daily highs around 90. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.
Melitopol
88 and clear, winds gusting near 20. Mostly sunny into next week, daily lows in the low 70s, daily highs in the 90s. Winds easterly, 5-15kts.
Kyiv
73 and mostly clear. Partly cloudy to sunny for the following week, daily lows in the upper 50s to low 60s, daily highs after today in the mid 80s to low 90s. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.
Independence Day
Multiple predictions that Russian forces will conduct large numbers of missile and drone strikes across Ukraine in recognition of Ukrainian Independence Day.
Ground Operations
Kursk Salient
Ukrainian forces continue to make gains on both sides of the salient.
To the west Ukrainian forces have pushed into the eastern side of Komarovka, just south of Korenevo. On the eastern edge and north-eastern edges of the salient, Ukrainian forces reportedly have taken control of Semenovka and pushed through it to Levshinka; both are very small villages - perhaps a dozen to 15 farm houses each - that abut one another. A bit further south, fighting Russian and Ukrainian forces continue to fight for Martynovka, with Russian bloggers claiming that Russian forces have pushed back into parts of the town they ceded several days ago.
Multiple claims from both sides make sorting out who controls what to the east of Sudzha a nearly impossible task, but it appears that there are a host of ugly, small unit engagements taking place in that area.
Russian forces appear to have deployed one airborne regiment from the Robotyne area to the Kursk incursion, and possibly elements of a second airborne regiment are being moved from the Bakhmut area. To date, elements of the following have also been moved from Ukraine to the Kursk oblast. All of these forces were not necessarily engaged in combat in Ukraine, and it is also not clear what percentage of these units has been moved. Units include, in addition to the 2 airborne regiments:
1 x Naval Infantry brigade
4 x Motorized Rifle Regiments
3 x Motorized Rifle Brigades
1 x Ant-Aircraft Brigade
1 x Chechen Spetnaz unit
National Guard and volunteer corps elements
Ukraine meanwhile has elements of at least 8 brigades involved in the Kursk salient, though how many personnel are actually inside Russia is unknown.
North of Kharkiv
Fighting continues both north and north-east of Kharkiv but there were no confirmed gains or losses on either side.
North of the Donets
Ukraine forces are reporting that they conducted a brigade sized attack in Kharkiv Oblast and pushed Russian units back almost 2 kilometers (1.2 miles). While the Ukrainian General Staff did not elaborate as to where this attack took, place it appears to have been just north of Maikiivka, south-west of Svatove, where Russian forces had made a small push across the Zherebets River. This attack was designed to get the Russians back east of the River again.
Bakhmut
Russian forces had confirmed small gains north, west and south of Bakhmut. In the Siversk area Russian forces had confirmed gains to the north of that town , near Bilohorivka, while also remaining on the attack near Spirne and Vyimka.
West of Bakhmut Russian forces made small gains on the eastern edge of Chasiv Yar, near the northeast corner of the town, pressing on the Donets Canal conduit (where the canal is routed underground for almost a half mile). Ukrainian forces are well aware of the need to prevent the Russians from gaining a firm hold west of the canal and this will turn into another bloody engagement.
South of Bakhmut Russian forces made more gains near Klishchivka, pushing north-west from the high ground just west of that town. Again, this is an issue of the right flank (southern flank) of the Ukrainian forces holding the canal. If the Russians get across the canal they would undermine the defenses due east of Chasiv Yar (just to the north). If the Ukrainians hold, the Russians will not be able to turn that same flank.
Further south of Bakhmut Russian forces continue to gain ground in the Niu York and Toretsk area. East of Toretsk Russian forces appear to have now pushed westward through Zalizne (south-east of Toretsk), and are moving into the terrain north of Niu York, and immediately south-east of Toretsk.
At the same time Russian forces have pushed through central Druzhba and appear to have entered the eastern edge of Toretsk, and there are various blogger reports that a Ukrainian units in eastern Toretsk have begun to fall back to the center of the town, ceding the high-rise apartment-bunkers on the eastern edge of the town.
Donetsk
West of Donetsk Russian forces continue to push westward and south-westward; Russian forces have been confirmed to have control of Ptyche and also have control of terrain east of the Karlvika reservoir and the Vovcha River and, with the taking of Ptyche, it appears that Ukrainian forces began to withdraw from the terrain immediately west of the Vovcha (and south of Ptyche) to reduce the possibility of encirclement.
West and south-west of Donetsk City, Russian forces continue to press forward along the general line from Vuhledar to Marinka, and there are claims that they have crossed the 0532 roadway in two more places in the last 24 hours. Fighting was reported near Vuhledar, Vodyane, Pobieda, and Kistyantynivka, and Heorhivka, but there were no confirmed gains.
The only activity of note on the ground in southern Ukraine was Russian artillery fire noted at several point along the line, but overall activity has been characterized as of “reduced intensity."
Air Operations
Russian forces launched at least 2 x Iskander class ballistic missiles and several (number unknown) Kh-31P anti-radiation missiles (ARM) on the 21st, over southern Ukraine, and the UAF commander claims they were all defeated with “active counter-measures,” though the regional governor reported a ballistic missile strike in a residential area that evening.
Pulling the ARM off target is certainly feasible, but defeating an Iskander class ballistic missile, which uses an inertial nav system, seems a bit of a reach.
Russian forces also launched 4 x Kh-35 cruise missiles and 1 x Iskander class ballistic missile into the Kharkiv area, no damage report has been issued.
Ukrainian Security Service personnel claimed they had successfully attacked an ammo and fuel dump at Marinkova airfield in Volgograd, destroying several bunkers holding glide bombs as well as at least one fuel tank. There was imagery showing smoke plumes in the area but the specific damage could not be confirmed.
The UAF reported that Russian forces launched 10 x Shahed drones on Ukrainian forces in the Kursk Oblast, and the UAF claimed it shot down 2 of the drones.
Ukrainian HQ has reported a drop in RuAF flight ops in the Donetsk area over the last several days to week. In the Kharkiv area the Ukrainian forces were reporting 30 - 40 tacair sorties per day as of last week but this week that number has fallen to fewer than 10 per day. The cause for this decrease is not clear.
Politics and Diplomacy
India’s Prime Minister Modi, at joint press conference with President Zelenskyy in Kyiv, urged Zelenskyy to enter into peace talks with Russia.
"The path to resolution can only be found through dialogue and diplomacy. We must move in this direction without losing time.”
"Last month, when I visited Russia, I told Putin very clearly that the problems cannot be solved on the battlefield. The only way of solving problems is through dialogue and diplomacy. And we should move in this direction, wasting no time. Both sides will have to sit down together and look for ways to overcome this crisis.”
India has been calling for peace talks between Ukraine and Russia scene the war began. Two years ago Modi told Putin: ”I told him, looking him right in the eyes, in front of the press, that now is not the era of war.”
Modi also promised humanitarian aid to Ukraine: “…whatever humanitarian help is needed, India will always stand with you and endeavor to support you.”
Last month Zelenskyy criticized Modi’s visit to Moscow:
"It’s a massive disappointment and a devastating blow to peace initiatives, seeing the leader of the world’s largest democracy embracing the most blood-soaked criminal in Moscow on such a day.”
Aid
The US has promised $125 million in aid to Ukraine, mot of it focused on ammunition for HIMARS, surface to air missiles , and artillery (155MM howitzer) ammo.
Economic Reporting
Feb 22 Mar 7 Jun10-22Jun8-23 Jun7 Jul9 Aug8 Aug22 Aug23
Brent 94.71 119.50 120.90 75.58 80.06 85.19 78.02 76.36 78.86
WTI 92.10 123.80 119.50 71.29 75.81 81.73 75.03 72.12 74.71
NG 3.97 4.45 8.41 2.15 2.82 2.38 2.08 2.12 2.02
Ruble 85 145.70 58.48 82.59 88.77 88.18 86.98 91.97 91.50
Wheat 8.52 12.94 10.71 6.17 6.40 5.71 5.38 5.44 5.36
Urals 56.56 67.61 67.61 72.14 72.65 72.68
ESPO 67.02 74.63 75.61 70.04
SOKOL 70.82 69.12 70.26
Thoughts
About the Ukrainian units south-east of Pokrovsk, they do indeed appear to be withdrawing, and the Russian should be able to move more rapidly through Mykhailivka, Marynivka and attack Lysivka and close on Pokrovsk from the south-east and east, though nothing that the Russian do is exactly rapid - the tactics are deliberately slow and deliberate.
The Ukrainians appear to have decided that the possibility of getting pinched off in the pocket west of the Vovcha River was too high, but they have also apparently managed to withdraw in good order.
All of this suggests that the incursion into Kursk was a tactical success and even an operational one, but the desired Ukrainian result - enough Russian forces shifted north to end the advance west of Donetsk City - didn’t happen.
Pokrovsk is facing a siege and it will likely begin by the first few days of September, or earlier if the Ukrainian units withdraw too quickly. At the same time anecdotal reporting from the Pokrovsk area suggests that the Ukrainian forces in the area are all under-manned, have had very high casualty rates and that there are no replacement soldiers.
v/r pete
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