August 29th, 2024  Next Summary September 2nd, 2024

Overall  

Ground Operations  - Ukraine - no advances in Kursk - now Ukraine must hold

- Russia continues advances in Donbas, nearing Pokrovsk

Air Operations - F-16 lost

Weather

Kharkiv

86 and sunny.  Partly cloudy into next week; daily lows in the upper 60s, daily highs in the low 90s. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

87 and partly cloudy, gusting to 20. Thunderstorms possible tonight, partly to mostly cloudy into next week. Daily lows around 70, daily highs in the upper 80s. Winds easterly, 5-15kts.

Kyiv

85 and sunny. Partly to mostly cloudy through Monday, daily lows in the low 60s, daily highs in the upper 80s. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Ground Operations

Kursk Salient

Ukrainian forces appear to have pushed a bit further north-east from Korenevo, but overall, the lines appear to have started to set, Russian forces have dug in, Ukrainian forces are digging in, and the effort may be switching to a Ukrainian “hold” effort. 

If Gen. Syrskyi is correct, more Russian forces are flowing to this area, even as the Russians build more defensive positions, as the Russian prepare to try to push the Ukrainian forces back to the border. Current blogger maps show the Ukrainian force as 8 brigades and 3 independent battalions; the Russian force is shown as 4 regular army brigades plus a large number of border guard and national guard elements.

North of Kharkiv 

Both sides continue to probe and then exchange artillery fire but there has been no confirmed change in the lines for several days. Ukrainian HQ reports that the level of intensity of the engagements has tapered off since early August, with the incursion into Kursk Oblast.

North of the Donets River

Russian forces remained on the attack along virtually the entire line of contact, and had small, confirmed gains south-east of Kupyansk. Included are reports of gains in and around the small town of Stelmakhivha (about 16-17 miles south-south-east of Kupyansk and 9 miles north-west of Svatove), which sits on the Zherebets River; reportedly Russian troops are now operating on both sides of the river around this town. As with this entire region, these gains are routinely gained and traded back within several weeks, both sides riding a see-saw give and take that has changed little in more than a year. It would be surprising if the Russians had adequate extra forces to exploit this gain.

Bakhmut

North-east of Bakhmut Ukrainian forces appear to have regained some ground to the west of Ivano-Darivka, but fighting continues along essentially the entire line of contact  in this area.

Russian forces claimed new gains in eastern Chasiv Yar, but this is unconfirmed; fighting continues to the south, immediately west of Klishchivka.

West of Horlivka, Russian forces continue to advance further into Toretsk, and appear to occupy virtually all of Druzhba and Pivnechne. A bit further to the south Russian forces continue to slowly clear out Niu York.

Donetsk City

Russian forces continue to make gains as they push westward toward Pokrovsk. Geolocated imagery confirmed that Russian forces are in Memryk and pushing into Seledove on the south side of the salient, and made further gains outside of Krasnyi Yar and Mykolaivka in the direction of Pokrovsk. Further small gains were made across much the north, west and south sides of the salient and at the western-most confirmed point, in the area of Mykolaivka, it appears that Russian forces are now about 5 miles from Pokrovsk. 

Commenting on the situation around Pokrovsk, Gen. Syrskyi said the fighting was “fierce.”

There are further claims - not yet confirmed - that Russian forces have pushed into Myrnohrad, just east-north-east of Pokrovsk, which would place Russian troops less than 3 miles from the eastern edge of Pokrovsk. On the south side of the salient Russian forces continue to move slowly south and west as Ukrainian forces appear to slowly withdraw to the west.

Elsewhere west and south-west of Donetsk City Russian forces continued to press into Krasnohorivka and Heorhivka but made no claims of any ground gains.

Fighting further to the southwest continues as well, with Russian forces continuing to press into Kostyantynivka, and they probably control the entire town, as well as pressing westward in several nearby areas in their continuing attempt to take full control over the O-0524 roadway. Overall, these efforts would establish a new - straight - Russian line that would run from the Vuhledar area to Korahove (7 miles west of Heorhivka), to Seledove, to Pokrovsk. 

Southern Ukraine and the Dnepr River

Skirmishes and artillery fire were reported across southern Ukraine and along the Dnepr River but there were no claims of any gains or losses in terrain.

Air Operations 

The Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) confirmed news reports of the loss of a UAF F-16 on Monday. The pilot, Oleksii "Moonfish" Mes, was killed in the loss of the airplane.

The UGS noted that the aircraft was not lost to enemy fire. One anonymous source blamed the loss on pilot error; the UAF was quick to correct that and said that it was not know to be pilot error and they were investigating the loss.

The aircraft crashed while in pursuit of a Russian cruise missile; I have no idea what caused the crash but “friendly fire” is a distinct possibility in as much as this was in the middle of a 200 missile - drone attack by the Russians.

Various news media are reporting that the White House is applying pressure on France and the UK to limit the use of French and British weapons and bar their use on striking targets deep inside Russia, based on those British and French weapons using certain data, as well as containing certain subsystems, that are US derived. This will clearly be on the agenda when President Zelenskyy meets with President Biden in the next several weeks.

Ukrainian forces reported on the drone strike on Russian oil depots on the 27th. The first  target was the Atlas Oil Depot in Rostov, which started a fire, which has been contained. He seconds strike was on the Zenir oil depot in Kirov (700+ mile strike). Two drones were shot down, a third hit a processing plant, resulting in a fire, that was apparently put out.

Russia forces launched 2 x Kh-59/69 cruise missiles and 1 possible ballistic missile into Ukrainian airspace the morning of the 28th. The UAF did not claim any hits against the 3 targets, and 1 missile hit in Kryvyi Rih, causing 9 casualties.

Elsewhere, the UAF is claiming that one of their personnel shot down a Su-35  with a MANPAD (MAN Portable Air Defense - a hand held surface to air missile). While technically possible to shoot down a tactical aircraft such as an SU-35 with a MANPAD, it requires that the pilot of the aircraft make a lot of bad decisions, like getting low, slow and hanging around long enough to be seen and shot at.

Economic Reporting

Feb 22   Mar 7   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Jun7 Jul9 Aug8 Aug28 Aug29

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      80.06 85.19 78.02 78.92 80.19

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      75.81 81.73 75.03 74.87 76.26

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15      2.82 2.38 2.08 1.90 2.10

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      88.77 88.18 86.98 91.51 92.00

Wheat     8.52        12.94    10.71    6.17       6.40 5.71 5.38 5.36 5.42

Urals 56.56    67.61 67.61 72.14 75.39 73.89

ESPO  67.02      74.63 70.04

SOKOL 70.82 73.34 70.88

Thoughts

Ukrainian forces continue an orderly withdrawal and appear to be falling into prepared defenses around Pokrovsk. One blogger noted that the Ukrainian General Staff and the Ministry of Defense had made a point of stating that the best units in the Ukrainian army were committed to the Kursk salient, and the defense north of Kharkiv, which leaves Pokrovsk where?

Meanwhile, Syrskyi and President Zelenskyy both have made the point that at least part of the goal for the Kursk attack was to force the Russians to draw forces away from Donetsk. In his remarks yesterday Syrskyi noted that the Russians were actually flowing more forces and supplies into the attack on Pokrovsk. So, at least in that regard the Kursk attack did not come off as planned.

The Ukrainians are left with a need to demonstrate that the defenses, and the personnel and logistics flowing into Pokrovsk, are adequate to hold. The citizens have mostly evacuated, the town, once of 60,000, is nearly abandoned and will soon be pummeled. Can the Ukrainians hold?

As for the Russians, can they flow enough forces into Kursk, and into the Pokrovsk attack, to, in the first case reestablish the initiative and in the second maintain the initiative? Do they have enough trained troops and enough ordnance to generate thos fights?

I don’t know the real numbers - troops and supplies - on either side, but this will be brutally interesting as it unfolds over the next several months.

v/r pete