August 26th, 2024  Next Report August 28th

Overall  

Ground Operations  - Ukraine - small advances in Kursk

- Russia continues advances in Donbas, nearing Pokrovsk

Air Operations  - Large Russian strike on power grid

Diplomacy - China defends relations with Russia

Weather

Kharkiv

93 and sunny. . Partly cloudy to cloudy for the next week; daily lows in the upper 60s, daily highs around 90. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

93 and partly cloudy, gusting near 20. Tomorrow afternoon rain showers, then mostly cloudy into the weekend. Daily lows around 70, daily highs in the upper 80s. Winds easterly, 5-15kts.

Kyiv

88 and sunny. Partly cloudy to sunny for the next 10 days, daily lows in the mid 60s, daily highs in the 80s to low 90s. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Ground Operations

Kursk Salient

Fighting continues in the Kursk salient, with both the Ukrainians and the Russian claiming gains over the last several days.

Along the western edge of the salient Russian sources claimed gains both south-west of Korenevo and immediately east of Korenevo, though there are conflicting reports as to how much was gained and it is probable that the Russian have pushed into these small towns but do not control them.

On the east side of the salient, Ukrainian forces continue operations near Malay Loknya (due north of Subzha about 9 miles) and there is reportedly some very hard fighting and in some cases, heroics, with Russian Naval infantry helping a Russian unit break out of encirclement. Ukrainian forces also appear to be continuing the armored cavalry runs deeper into Russian territory to the north and to the east. Fighting also took place south-wast of Subzha, with claims that Russian forces retook Spalnoye (about 9 miles south-east of Subzha), but this has not been confirmed.

Russian HQ continues to move forces around to bring more combat power into the Kursk region, but the moves are taking place slowly, with Russian field commanders hesitant to pull forces from any area inside Ukraine where there has been any recent progress, particularly the ongoing operations directed at Pokrovsk and secondarily the operations west of Horlivka and west of Bakhmut.

Of interest, Russian bloggers report that Ukraine forces have probed across the border into Russia at several other spots along the border int he past week; these reports have not been confirmed.

North of Kharkiv

Fighting continued north and north-east of Kharkiv, but there were no confirmed gains or losses. The one item of note is a Russian element, about a platoon in size (40 or 50 troops total) who are in the aggregate factory in the middle of Vovchansk and have been cut off from the rest of the Russian forces in Vovchansk. This reportedly devolved down to a very nasty, in-close fight over the weekend.

North of the Donets River

Fighting continues along the line of contact, with the only confirmed gains being the Russian forces retaking land around Makiivka, land that Russian forces had taken a about a week ago, that was then retaken in the middle of last week by Ukrainian forces. So, it would appear that the Russian have, once again, reached the Zherebets River in the area immediately north of Makiivka.

Bakhmut

Fighting continues around Siversk and Bilohorivka, but there were no confirmed gains neither are by either side.

Russian forces claimed gains in eastern Chasiv Yar, to include having now pushed two streets deep into Chasiv Yar - west of the Donets Canal, but this has not been confirmed.

Just south of Bakhmut Russian forces claimed more gains west of Klishchivka, as they push west and north-west from the high ground just outside that town, but these gains as well have not been confirmed.

West of Horlivka, Russian forces continue to gain ground, with confirmed gains into the eastern end of Toretsk as well as moving into central Niu York. Ukrainian forces withdrew in good order out of the eastern edges of Toretsk, and presumably have set up additional hardened fighting potions in the apartment buildings towards the center of the city; it is these small (5 - 7 floor apartment complexes), heavily built concrete buildings that the Ukrainians have become adept at turning into hardened fighting positions. It is these hardened fighting positions that Russian troops have found so difficult to fight past, and which have been normally defeated through the use of artillery used in direct fire, and through the use of tacair strikes.

 

Donetsk City

Russian forces claimed more gains east and south-east of Pokrovsk, have pushed further into Novohrodivka and Marynivka, and claim to be advancing on a front of 4.5 kilometers wide (almost 3 miles), though these claims have yet to be confirmed. Of note, the blog and map site “Deep State,” (a pro Ukrainian site (all the sites are very clearly Pro Ukrainian or Pro Russian)) shows Russian forces as a bit less than 10 kilometers (6 miles from the eastern edge of Pokrovsk).

South-west of Donetsk City imagery confirmed that Russian forces have moved into and now control Kostyantynivka and a bit more of the O-0532 roadway.

Southern Ukraine

Fighting continued across southern Ukraine and along the Dnepr River but there were no confirmed gains or losses by either side.

Air Operations 

Russia conducted an extensive attack on Ukrainian power infrastructure targets across the country on Monday morning, with more than 200 missiles and drones launched into Ukrainian air space.

The attack included 127 missiles of all types and 109 x Shahed drones.

• 3 x Kh-47M2 Kinzhal missiles
• 6 x Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles
• 77 x Kh-101 cruise missiles

- 28 x Kalibr cruise missiles

- 3 x Kh-22 cruise missiles

- 10 x Kh-59/Kh-69 guided missiles

• 109 x Shahed attack UAVs

The UAF claimed to have shot down 201 of 236 targets, 102 x missiles and 99 x drones:

- 1 x Kh-47M2 Kinzhal ballistic missile

- 1 x Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missile

- 1 x Kh-22 cruise missile;

• 99 x cruise missiles of all types
• 99 Shahed drones

Several drones were reportedly lost over Belarus.

Both President Zelenskyy and Foreign Minster Kuleba called for NATO to support Ukraine with NATO fighter aircraft engaging incoming missiles over Ukraine 

On the night of the 24th of August, Russian force launched 6 x Kh-59/69 cruise missiles, 1 x Iskander ballistic missile, 1 x Iskander cruise missile and 8 x Shahed dozens into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down the 8 drones, but gave no other comments on the missiles.

Of note, the UAF F-16s have reportedly been used defending against incoming cruise missiles and drones, though no report on how effective they might have been. The F-16s have not been used to date in a strike role.

Also off note, a PAO release of the F-16s showed enough background that the location - Ivano-Frankivsk (about 60 miles south-south-east of Lviv)  - was readily identified.

Russia’s Ministry of Defence claimed it shot down 22 x Ukrainian drones during the night of 24- 25 August over eight regions, including Saratov and Yaroslavl in central Russia.

The Russian strikes over the weekend primarily targeted the Ukrainian power grid. Initial reports noted that 18 civilians were killed and 37 wounded during the attacks but that is a preliminary number. 

Ukrainian power grid targets included power substations in Kiev, Vinnitsa, Zhitomir, Khmelnitsky, Dnepropetrovsk, Poltava, Nikolayev, Kirovograd and Odessa regions. The Russians claimed hits in each region.

However, Ukrainian officials commented that there was little real damage.

• the Kyiv Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP) “did not sustain any significant damage”
• But, power was out in several sectors of Kyiv and elsewhere across the country 
• Moldova reported that, because its power grid is connected to Ukraine’s, it had short duration power problems

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director will visit the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant (KNPP), located just west of Kursk city, tomorrow.

"Given the serious situation, I’m personally leading tomorrow’s IAEA mission to the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant in Russia. This is an evolving situation, and it is vital when I arrive at the plant tomorrow that I see first-hand the situation and discuss modalities for further activities as may be needed to evaluate the nuclear safety and security conditions of the KNPP.”

An explosion and fire was reported at the Omsk oil refinery. Omsk is located about 50 miles north of the central Kazakhstan border. The refinery has a processing  capacity of 60,000 metric tons or 440,000 barrels per day.

Politics and Diplomacy

The US Treasury department announced on Friday that it had placed sanctions on nearly 400 Communist Chinese companies and individuals for providing aid to the Russian war effort. In response, the PRC Ministry of Commerce commented that it would “take necessary measures to firmly safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises,” and it described the US actions as “wrong actions” made with “so-called Russia-related excuses.”

Russia and Ukraine agreed to a prisoner exchange - negotiated by the UAE, each siding returning 115 POWs to their country.

Pope Francis condemned the Ukrainian government’s banning of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church Moscow Patriarchate, commenting: “Do not touch churches.”

Economic Reporting

Feb 22   Mar 7   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Jun7 Jul9 Aug8 Aug23 Aug26

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      80.06 85.19 78.02 78.86 81.42

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      75.81 81.73 75.03 74.71 77.43

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15      2.82 2.38 2.08 2.02 1 .98

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      88.77 88.18 86.98 91.50 92.00

Wheat     8.52       12.94    10.71    6.17       6.40 5.71 5.38 5.36 5.28

Urals 56.56    67.61 67.61 72.14 72.68 74.20

ESPO  67.02      74.63  75.61 70.04

SOKOL 70.82 70.26 72.29

President Putin held a meeting with his key economic advisors and released the following statistics (pretty good, if true):

GDP growth for the first 6 months of the year was 4.6%

Unemployment is 2.4%

Real wage growth through May was 10.1%

Thoughts

The large number of weapons used against the power grid, particularly more than 100 Shahed attack drones, suggests an effort to draw down the number of missiles on rails in the Ukrainian air defense system so that more cruise and ballistic missiles can get through.

The drones and the Kh-101s routinely suffer 90% casualties but to put things in perspective, the Ukrainian air defense system used substantially more than 100 missiles last night, and perhaps far more than that.

And, it may well be that the Kyiv HPP didn’t not suffer any major damage, but I suspect we will need to wait a few days to a week to see the real image report. It is of note that only 2 out of 9 ballistic missiles were shot down; each one that gets through is capable of doing a great deal of damage to a power plant. It is likely to be a very long winter to the citizens of Kyiv.

Meanwhile, Russian forces appear to be moving into the Kursk Region, albeit slowly. Ukrainian forces need to be prepared to hold. What is not clear is whether Ukrainian engineers have moved into the area yet.

v/r pete