August 9th, 2024  Next Summary 12 August

Overall  

Ground Operations - Sumy Border - Ukraine continues to advance

- Marginal Russian gains continue

Weather

Kharkiv

82 and mostly cloudy. Partly to mostly cloudy into the middle of next week; daily lows in the low 60s, daily highs near 80. Winds variable, 5-15kts.

Melitopol

85 and mostly sunny. Mostly sunny through next week; daily lows in the mid 60s, daily highs in the upper 80s. Winds variable, 5-15kts.

Kyiv

79 and cloudy. Partly to mostly cloudy for the next week, rain now just possible on Saturday; daily lows around 60, daily highs in the upper 70s. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Ground Operations  

The Ukrainian incursion into the Kursk region continues, with contradictory reports of fighting almost 20 miles inside Russia and also taking place around the Sudzha Gas Transmission System (GTS), which is located just inside Russia (less than a half mile form the border). If the first report is correct Ukrainian forces would still appear to be receiving little resistance from Russian forces; if the latter report is accurate, Russian forces would have had to push back Ukrainian forces about 5 miles from earlier positions to reach the general area of the transmission point. In all likelihood, the report of fighting at Sudzha is wrong, but there is much about this entire incursion that is odd.

Ukrainian elements have penetrated up to 20 miles into Russia, with the incursion following various roads in a sort of radial fashion from the general area of Sudzha, with Ukrainian elements running up the roads to Spagost (to the west-north-west), towards Koronevo (to the north-west), past Malaya (due north) to the vicinity of Kromskie Byki, and east to the area of Marynovka. Of note, there is no suggestion that these troops are part of the armed residence inside Russia or that those elements are in support; this is an incursion by regular Ukrainian troops.

At the same time, geolocated images are more limiting, showing Ukrainian forces in the general area (within 5 miles) of Sudzha. Reporting also suggests a Ukrainian advance to the north-west was stopped near Koronevo.

It’s worth noting that the various open source blogs are still showing no Russian regular army units in the Kursk fight, or even simply west of Kursk, which suggests that the Ukrainian army is being slowed by just border guard elements (usually not very ell trained), and that the diversion of Russian forces already in the Ukrainian theater is being resisted by the Russian commanders.

It appears that the Ukrainian elements that are striking out along these roads are mechanized units, using armored cavalry tactics, units which have the mobility to go around any Russian concentrations without engaging, raiding deeper into Russian territory, and then withdrawing, stirring up the level of confusion while other Ukrainian forces are digging in around Sudzha.

North of Kharkiv

Russian forces continued on the attack near Hlyboke (north of Kharkiv) and near Vovchansk and Tykhe (north-east of Kharkiv), but there were no confirmed gain or losses by either side. 

Ukrainian HQ for Kharkiv reports that the Russian forces are preparing to attack the aggregate plant in the middle of Vovchansk.

Donets River

Russian forces remain on the attack along the entire line of contact but there were no confirmed gains or losses.

Bakhmut

Russian forces remained on the attack north-east, north, and west of Bakhmut but there were no confirmed gains or losses of terrain.

Well south of Bakhmut, west of Horlvika, Russian forces continue to gain ground in and around Niu York and also continue to try to squeeze closed a pocket north-east of Niu York which contains the bulk of at least 2 brigades, and possibly elements of a 3rd brigade.

Donetsk City

Russian forces continue to attack north, north-west and west of Avdiivka and the eastern edge of Pokrovsk is reportedly receiving artillery fire from Russian guns, but there were no confirmed gains in this area. Russia sources claimed Russia forces gained control of several town in the Pokrovsk area, particularly Serhiivka, (to the south-east), but this has yet to be confirmed.

To the south-west of Donetsk Russian forces continue to push broadly west, and claimed gains near Vodyane, but these have not been confirmed.

Velyka Novosilke and Orikhiv

Fighting was reported north of Robotyne, but there were no reported gains anywhere across the south.

Dnepr River

Russian forces conducted small boat raids along the river and onto various islands in the river mouth, but there were no claims of either side gaining any new ground.

Air Operations

Ukrainian drones struck the RuAF airfield at Lipetsk last night, home field for squadrons of SU-34s, SU-35s and MiG-31s, as well as the site for 3 x SAM batteries.

Ukrainian sources claimed that all three SAM batteries suffered some damage.

Apparently 9 x Shahed drones overflew Belarus during July and the Belarus Air Force is to maintain a CAP of SU-30s and attack helicopters over southern Belarus during Russian drone strikes to intercept wayward drones.

Politics and Diplomacy

Evacuations of civilians are taking place on both sides of the border in the Sumy Region.

Ukrainian authorities are now trying to evacuate some 20,000 civilians from 28 small towns and villages in the Sumy area.

Following the attack across the border, Russian authorities ordered the evacuation of more than 3,000 inhabitants of the small villages in the region. 

Following a series of drone strikes by Ukrainian forces at the RuAF airfield near Lipetsk (Lipetsk is just east of Kursk), the governor ordered an evacuation of civilians in the western area of the oblast.

Economic Reporting

Feb 22   Mar 7   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Jun7 Jul9 Aug8 Aug9

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      80.06 85.19 78.02 79.43

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      75.81 81.73 75.03 76.56

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15      2.82 2.38 2.08 2.13

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      88.77 88.18 86.98 88.56

Wheat     8.52       12.94    10.71    6.17       6.40 5.71 5.38 5.38

Urals 56.56    67.61 67.61 72.14 72.14

SOKOL   67.02      74.63  75.61 70.82 71.75

Thoughts

To ensure Russian leadership responds by committing larger, regular forces to push the Ukrainian units out of Russian terrain - and thereby weakening Russian forces inside Ukraine, Ukrainian forces will need to bring in engineering units and prepare defenses positions, while also moving air defenses assets near the border, and make this a hard fight for the Russians.

The Russians, on the other hand, will want to bring in other forces, forces not already committed in Ukraine, to push the Ukrainians out. Whether those forces will be adequate to the task remains to be seen, but Putin will obviously not want the Russian counter attack to degrade into another miss-step. Over the next few days expect to see some refocusing of Russian tactical aviation assets on this incursion, and artillery on the area, and also see which units - local border guards, reserves, in theater assets, etc., - are moved around to address this incursion. To that end, the Sumy area reported 56 x RuAF tacair strikes on the 8th.

A guess on my part is that the Russian General Staff will resist moving force from within Ukraine to support the defense west of Kursk and that they will move some regular army elements from elsewhere in the country to address this incursion, and leave the units inside Ukraine right where they are.

Meanwhile, much can be said about the propaganda value of imagery coming out of the Kursk incursion. One particularly gripping video shows a small convoy of Russian army trucks, fairly well shredded by a HIMARS strike.

Open source reporting claimed “400 dead Russians,” which is a bit of a reach. The standard TOE (Table Of Equipment) for Russian infantry units shows 5 x Ural 4320s per platoon, as well as several other vehicles and when moving troops and gear, the load is 2 soldiers in the cab and 5 - 7 in the rear. A convoy of 13 or 14 trucks would probably represent 2 x platoons of roughly 40 men each, plus two trucks per platoon carrying assorted gear, for a total between 80 and 90 troops.

Nevertheless, the picture of a dozen or more smashed trucks and several dozen bodies visible in the video is gripping. What remains to be seen is how that imagery affects both the Russian and Ukrainian populations. Will it lead more people to question the war? Or will it lead more people to demand more action?

v/r pete