August 16th, 2024 

Overall  

Power Grid - Blackout Schedule expected next week

Ground Operations - Syrskyi’s Raid - Ukraine continues to advance

Politics - Nord Stream - August Hanning Comments

Weather

Kharkiv

82 and sunny. Mostly sunny into next week; daily lows in the 60s, daily highs around 90. Winds variable, 5kts.

Melitopol

84 and sunny, gusting near 20. Mostly sunny through next week; daily lows near 60, daily highs in the 90s. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

82 and mostly cloudy, gusting near 20. Mostly sunny through next Wednesday, daily lows in the 60s, daily highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Power Grid

Weather will be warmer next week than this week and the Deputy Minister of Energy is expecting a 10-12% increase in energy consumption, a demand that Ukraine’s power grid cannot match. Accordingly, she is warning of a blackout schedule.

“What we will observe next week may lead to the fact that energy companies will have to apply blackout schedules. With the rise of the thermometer, the Ukrenergo Dispatch Center predicts a possible increase in consumption by 10-12 percent. In order to cover this level of consumption, it would be necessary to use an additional amount of power equal to the operation of several large power plants. Unfortunately, there is no additional capacity in the system. Ukraine’s power system is still recovering from eight massive missile and drone attacks by the Russians between March and July 2024.”

As a result of Russian missile strikes on the Ukrainian power grid, Ukraine now has less than 10 GigaWatts total output, as opposed to 36 GW before the war. (Note that the nominal capacity of the Ukrainian power grid was 56 GW, but the actual capacity was 36 GW).

Ground Operations  

Kursk Incursion - Syrskyi’s Raid

Fighting continues inside Russia; Gen Syrskyi reported that Ukrainian forces gained another 1.5 kilometers on the 15th, but didn’t state where. The deepest penetration to date is 35 kilometers (22 miles) but it isn't clear if that terrain is still held or that simply represents the deepest penetration of a raiding force (though I suspect the latter).

Total area either controlled by Ukraine, or not controlled by Russia, now covers about 445 square miles. My own guesstimate is that about 2/3rds of that  (perhaps 300 sq mi) is under clear Ukrainian control.

Details continue to be a hodgepodge of blogger comments, data extracted from cell phone videos, and snippets from various commanders and spokesmen. But, most of the reporting suggests the pace of the incursion is slowing. At the same time, Ukrainian forces appear to have pushed into Gordeevka (south of Korenovo, along the Ukrainian border), and there is fighting reported in Safonovka, north-east of Korenovo. So, Ukrainian forces continue to try to push westward, and there are also reports of fighting near Kauchuk, north-east of Korenovo.

As a result of the seizure of Gordeevka, the district of Glushkovo is being evacuated (population about 5,000).

On the east side, there are reports of fighting in Martynovka, with Russian reports claiming that Russian forces cleared the town of Ukrainians. At the same time, there are claims of Ukrainian forces taking control of Bondarevka (east of Sudzha) and Plekhovo (south of Sudzha, near the border). Giri appears to remain in Russian hands.

There are also reports of skirmishes along the border further to the south in Belgorod oblast.

North of Kharkiv

Russian forces remained on the attack due north of Kharkiv in the vicinity of Lyptsi and Hlyboke, as well as north-east of Kharkiv near Starytsya and Vovchansk.

Of note, the Ukrainian HQ is reporting that, following the Ukrainian incursion near Kursk, Russian tacair strikes north of Kharkiv have dropped to a handful of sorties (fewer than 5) per day, from a previous norm of 40 - 50.

Donets River

Fighting continued along essentially the entire line of contact but there were no confirmed gains or losses by either side.

Bakhmut

Operations continue north and west of Bakhmut but there were no confirmed gains or losses by either side.

West of Horlivka there are multiple claims of Russian forces gaining ground, of seizing Zalizne, of closing the pocket north-east of Niu York, and of making marginal gains inside Pivnichne, but none of these gains were confirmed.

That said, Ukrainian elements withdrew from the terrain north-east of Niu York which would not only give the Russians that terrain, it would also result in the de facto flanking of Ukrainian elements remaining in Zelizne. So, it is probable that that town is now held by the Russians. While unconfirmed, a Ukrainian source also reports that as of yesterday afternoon Russian forces controlled 80% of Niu York.

Donetsk City

West of Avdiivka (east of Pokrovsk) Russian forces remain committed to the attack and there were confirmed Russian gains in several small towns in the area, to include  Hrodivka and Mykolaivka; Zhelanne and Orlivka are now in Russian control. Ivanivka is now also held by the Russians. Ukrainian reports also note that Russian forces are within 3 miles of Selydove (itself located just 7 miles south-east of Pokrovsk), and there are some Russian forces in the area that are less than 8 miles from the eastern edge of Pokrovsk.

As a result of the continued slow grind, citizens of Pokrovsk are now being urged to evacuate the town, which had a pre-war population of nearly 60,000.

Overall, Russian forces continue to grind forward on a fairly broad front, continuing to be careful not to let any one unit get too far out in front and risk being cut off. Ukrainian forces have yet to build the hardened defensive line they need to stop the advance, seemingly unwilling to cede the few miles of terrain that would be necessary when they fall back on prepared lines.

To the west and south-west of Donetsk City Russian forces continue to press westward. Russian bloggers claim gains in Krasnohorivka and Kostyantynivka, but these gains have not been confirmed. Fighting is also reported southward along much of the road to Vuhledar (T0524), but again, there were no confirmed gains or losses.

 Velyka Novosilke and Orikhiv

Fighting continues north and north-east of Robotyne, and along most of the line of contact, but there have been no confirmed gains of terrain by either side.

Dnepr River

Fighting continues along the east bank of the river and on the islands at the mouth of the river. Ukrainian elements have apparently been inserted again into the Krynky area, though it isn’t clear whether they are simply raiding or have tried to take and hold position.

Air Operations

During the night of 14-15 August Russian forces launched at least 1 x Iskander M ballistic missile, 3 x Kh-59/69 cruise missiles and 29 x Shushed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down all the drones. There was no report on the impact points of the cruise missiles, and the Iskander hit “port infrastructure” in Odessa. A number (not further defined) of S-300 missiles were launched into Kherson as well, targets not identified.

During the night of 15-16 August Russian forces fired 3 x ballistic missiles (not further identified) and 5 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace; the UAF claimed it shot down all the drones. There was no report on where the ballistic missiles struck.

Russia’s MOD claimed that 12 x ATACMS were fired at the Kerch Bridge during the night of 15-16 August, but that Russian air defenses shot down all 12.

The S-400 is a very capable system but getting 12 of 12 ATACMS? Maybe… If true, they need to take the battery commander to Vegas.

Aid and Air Operations

Politico is reporting that the White House is considering the transfer of JASSM to Ukraine, for use with the F-16s.

JASSM - (Joint Air to Surface Standoff Missile - AGM-158) is a low observable, 200 NM range weapon with a 1,000 lb warhead, multi-mode guidance and a CEP of less than 10 feet. There is also an Extended Range version (AGM 158B) with a range of just over 500NM. The DOD bought 581 missiles in 2023 for $1.65 million per weapon.

Politics - Nord Stream

August Hanning, Director of the BND from 1998 to 2005 (Bundesnachrichtendienst - Federal Intelligence Service), commented to Die Welt on the recent warrant for the arrest of a Ukrainian national believed to be involved with the Nord Stream bombing. 

"As the results of the investigation have shown, a Ukrainian team acted here. However, [the sabotage] could only have been possible with support 'from the ground.' And judging by the map, the Polish special services were clearly involved. In addition, I think there could have been an agreement between the leadership of Ukraine and Poland. Such decisions are made at the highest political level, I think there was an agreement between President Zelensky and President Duda.” 

"It was definitely not a private initiative of the diving instructors. Polish and Ukrainian military agencies played a big role.” 

Hanning called the attack an act of "state terrorism."

Economic Reporting

Feb 22   Mar 7   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Jun7 Jul9 Aug8 Aug15 Aug16

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      80.06 85.19 78.02 81.33 79.32

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      75.81 81.73 75.03 78.49 76.34

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15      2.82 2.38 2.08 2.28 2.16

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      88.77 88.18 86.98 88.84 89.05

Wheat     8.52       12.94    10.71    6.17       6.40 5.71 5.38 5.56 5.50

Urals 56.56    67.61 67.61 72.14 76.03 76.03

SOKOL   67.02      74.63  75.61 70.82 72.55 73.43

File under: This makes my head hurt.

As Ukraine and Russia fight over Subzha, Russian natural gas pumped through Subzha, to transit Ukraine and be used in Europe, averaged just over 42 million cubic meters per day.

Note, too, that Russian oil - “heavily sanctioned” Russian oil - is being sold at essentially the same price as other oil. A dive into he various market prices for various oil shows no real difference enrich except as each type of oil is varies in price for a host of reasons.

Thoughts

About Syrskyi’s Raid: there is clearly some hard fighting going on, and for the grunts - on both sides - my guess is that this is an unpleasant affair. But, while the western press are portraying this as Russia about to collapse before the advance of the invincible Ukrainian army, sort of “Bruce Lee” kicking the snot out of some lumbering oaf, consider:

Ukraine did a great job in catching the Russians off guard, and on the 6th of August they hit a stretch of border guarded only by a few battalions of the Russian national guard (Rosgvardiya) with at least 5 of what they assert are their best brigades. The Russian response we are told has been haphazard, the chain of command is unclear, confused and ill informed, and Russia C2 (command and control) is fractured and struggling. The Russian response has been to flow in a half dozen battalions of mixed forces and they have yet to establish unity of command.

But, meanwhile, the Ukrainian assault has slowed to a crawl… 

My point is that this fight is not what the press is presenting - either in Moscow or Kyiv. The Russians were caught off guard but they are responding, and fighting - love ‘em or hate ‘em, the Russian soldiers fight hard.

Russian Command and Control is a mess but the Ukrainians are not exploiting it well - or if they are, the Russians must be pretty good fighters who are mainly holding ground and in this case it would be with poor leadership…

Said differently, this is not over, this is not a “cake-walk,” and meanwhile, Pokrovsk is being evacuated as the Russian forces in the center continue to grind forward.

v/r pete