August 21st, 2024 

Overall  

Ground Operations  - Ukraine continues small advances in Kursk

        - Russia continues advances in Donbas

        - Russian forces nearing Pokrovsk

Weather

Kharkiv

91 and mostly cloudy. Mostly cloudy tomorrow, then mostly sunny into next week; daily lows in the upper 60s, daily highs in the mid 90s. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

91 and partly cloudy. Thunderstorms on Thursday, mostly sunny the rest of the week, daily lows in the upper 60s, daily highs in the 90s. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

90 and sunny. Partly cloudy to sunny for the week, daily lows in the upper 50s to low 60s, daily highs after today in the upper 70s to low 80s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Ground Operations

Kursk Salient

Ukrainian forces continue  to make gains in the Kursk Salient.

On the Western side of the salient Ukrainian forces appear to have taken the town of Vishnevka (south-west of Koronevo), and are pressing further into Koronevo itself. Russian reporting suggests that Russian forces have made gains north of Koronevo, in open terrain south of Safonovka.  Ukrainian drones also were used to strike pontoons that Russian engineers were moving into place on the Seim River to replace the dropped bridges.

On the eastern edge of the salient Ukrainian forces pushed into the woods north of Russkoye Porechnoye (miles north-east of Sudzha). As always, the fact that one side or the other appears to have taken a town doesn’t mean that the other side has been completely pushed out, and there is still a good deal of reporting suggesting Russian forces scattered through the area nominally controlled by the Ukrainian forces.

Of note, several  anecdotal reports have popped up telling of Ukrainian troops now digging trenches and fighting positions, suggesting they are now going on the defensive. We’ll see if that develops further…

Satisfying one of the Ukrainian objectives - forcing Russian forces to move assets to the Kursk salient - Russian bloggers report that elements of a Russian airborne brigade that was operating near Chasiv Yar (west of Bakhmut) in July have been identified as operating in the Kursk area. There is no indication that this unit was engaged near Chasiv Yar and this probably represent a unit being prepared to relieve a unit currently engaged in combat, but this will certainly affect optempo of units in combat.

Along the same lines, MODUK reports that Russian forces have created a provisional regiment of infantry from RuAF services personnel to reinforce the Kursk defenses. If these personnel are maintenance or direct support personnel, this is a serious sign. On the other hand, if these personnel are office staff…

North of Kharkiv

Fighting was reported in both of the Russian occupied pockets north of Kharkiv, but there were no confirmed changes to the terrain held by either side. 

North of the Donets River

Fighting continued along the length of the line of contact and reporting suggests that the Russian have in fact taken control of Makiivka (south-west of Svatove) on the Zherebets Rive, and have managed to cross the river and are operating on the west side.

Bakhmut

Fighting continues north, west and south of Bakhmut; there were no confirmed gains north of Bakhmut, though reporting continues to suggest Russian gains near the village of Vyimka (5 miles south-east of Siversk).

There were no changes noted west or immediately south of Bakhmut.

Further south - west of Horlivka - Russian forces continue to press westward through Pivnichne and are now operating immediately west of Zalizne. The Ukrainian forces still claim that they have some terrain in Niu York but the Russians appear to have them surrounded; if not truly surrounded, the pockets of Ukrainians left in Niu York are cut off from logistics and will need to make a decision to DIP or withdraw.

Donetsk City

Russian forces west of Donetsk - Avdiivka continue to make gains further west, and yesterday were confirmed to have moved into the south-east side of Hrodivka, placing them about 7 miles due east of Pokrovsk. Reporting also suggests that Russian forces gained ground north and south of Hrodivka, but these gains have not been confirmed.

At the same time, a spokesman for the town of Pokrovsk told those inhabitants who have not evacuated that Russian forces are now “10Km” (6 miles) from the town.

Russian forces also made confirmed gains in Krasnohorivka, and more gains were claimed to the south-west, but these were not confirmed.

Southern Ukraine

Some fighting was reported across much of southern Ukraine and along the Dnepr River, but the reporting is sporadic and there are gaps. There were no confirmed gains by either side.

Air and Naval Operations 

The Russian Navy, practicing its “survival of the fleet in being” ConPlan, moved 2 x Karakurt class corvettes from the Black Sea, through Sea of Azov, up the Don River, through the Volga - Don Canal, and down the Volga to the Caspian Sea. The Karakurt class has a draft of 10 ft 10 inches and a beam of 36 feet, the Volga - Don canal allows a maximum draft of 12 feet and a 55 ft beam (designed mainly for barge service); the canal is 63 miles long and has 13 locks. The Karakurt corvette can carry Kalibr cruise missiles, which have a range of 900 - 1,000 miles (possibly more), so most of Ukraine remains in range of a launch position in the northern Caspian Sea.

Ukrainian forces launched 45 (or more) drones into Russian air space last night, apparently targeting Moscow. The Russian MOD reported that 34 were shot down en route Moscow, and 1 more shot down over Moscow, but no casualties or serious damage were reported from Moscow. 

Ukrainian AF sources reported that they shot down 50 of 69 drones launched by the Russian last night. There were no specific comments on the other 19 drones.

On the 19th Russian forces launched 2 x Iskander class ballistic missiles, 3 x S-300 ballistic missiles, 1 x Iskander cruise missile, a number of Kh-59 cruise missies (number not given),2 x Kh-38 cruise missiles and 26 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space yesterday. 

The UAF claimed it shot down 1 ballistic missile, 2 x cruise missiles, and 25 x Shahed drones. A report from Kharkiv noted that there had “infrastructure damage,” and later reports noted that 18,500 homes were without power in the Sumy region.

Damage Assessments

Results from the drone strikes last week on several Russian airfields (on the 13th and 16th) now shows 1 x MiG 31K fighter (launches the Kinzhal missile)  and 2 x IL-76 transport aircraft were destroyed, and 5 x MiG-31s were damaged.

Aid

The Dutch announced that they have bought 51 drone detection radars and will transfer them to Ukraine, with delivery expected some time this fall.

Economic Reporting

Feb 22   Mar 7   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Jun7 Jul9 Aug8 Aug20 Aug 21

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      80.06 85.19 78.02 77.67 77.26

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      75.81 81.73 75.03 74.37 73.12

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15      2.82 2.38 2.08 2.21 2.15

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      88.77 88.18 86.98 91.40 91.51

Wheat     8.52       12.94    10.71    6.17       6.40 5.71 5.38 5.52 5.57

Urals 56.56    67.61 67.61 72.14 74.97 72.73

ESPO  67.02      74.63  75.61 72.11 70.04

SOKOL 70.82 70.34 70.11

Thoughts

Ukrainian forces appear to have a solid hold on Russian terrain in the Kursk Oblast, even as the Russians build defenses to keep them from penetrating further. 

Meanwhile, it does appear that Pokrovsk is next in line to be chewed up, and the Russian assault on Toretsk and Niu York is making fairly regular progress. 

The 94 towns and villages the Ukrainians have seized, and the surrounding 500 sq. miles of land, present an interesting bargaining chip, but what will Russia surrender in exchange?

Meanwhile, the US Defense Intelligence Agency has issued an assessment that neither side will be able to conduct any more major military operations (note that the incursion into Russia is using elements of 4 or 5 brigades but is less than 10,000 total troops) and that the war is headed towards a stalemate.

Not to be too much of a cynic, but I am reminded of the assessment, written in 1962, released on April 1963, that said of Vietnam:

We believe Communist progress has been blunted and that the situation is improving… Developments during the last year or two also show some promise of resolving the political weaknesses, particularly that of insecurity in the country- side, upon which the insurgency has fed. 

As Yogi noted: It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.

v/r pete