August 7th, 2024 

Overall  

Ground Operations  - Russian gains continue

- Sumy Border - not clear

Politics - Niger cuts diplomatic ties with Ukraine

Economics - Russian gas pipeline open

Weather

Kharkiv

79 and cloudy. Partly to mostly cloudy through the weekend, daily lows around 60, daily highs near 80. Winds westerly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

84 and partly cloudy, gusting near 20. Mostly sunny through the weekend. Daily lows in the mid to upper 60s, daily highs in the upper 80s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

72 and partly cloudy, gusting over 20. Partly to mostly cloudy for the next week, rain possible on Saturday; daily lows around 60, daily highs around 80. Winds westerly, 5-10kts.

Ground Operations  

North-east of Sumy - Inside Russia

Reporting on the cross-border raid by Ukrainian forces, north-east of Sumy, remains contradictory and inconclusive. Pictures (stills) and video) show perhaps 20 vehicles of various types damaged or destroyed, but it isn't clear what caused the damage (could have been artillery) and in some cases the vehicles could have been either Russian or Ukrainian army.

Interestingly, the headlines on both sides seem far different from what is being reported on the ground.

Multiple, pro-Russian, reports suggest a Ukrainian tank company and an additional mounted infantry company - a total force of 300 troops and 11 tanks - pushed across the border, and a scouting element ran about 8-9 miles (15KM) down a road before being turned back by a combination of tactical air, artillery and border guard troops.

Russian propaganda appears to want to make this sound like a major invasion, perhaps to rally the population, and noted 5 civilians killed and 28 wounded. Some western media appear to want to inflate it because they want to take down Russian forces a notch or two.

The Ukrainian General Staff,  meanwhile has not officially confirmed the raid took place, and some Russia reports, as of this afternoon, suggest the raid has returned to Ukraine.

North of Kharkiv

Fighting continues north and north-east of Kharkiv, and there are claims of Russia gains near Tykhe, just east of Vovchansk, but these have not been confirmed.  

Donets River

Fighting continues along the entire length of the line of contact but there has been little confirmed movement of the line in the past week. Russian forces do appear at this point to control Makiivka and have gained a hold on the Zherebets River at this point.

Bakhmut

Fighting continues north, north-east, west, and south of Bakhmut but the front line has changed very little over the past week.

Further south, Russian forces west of Horlivka continue to gain ground, and have pushed into north-west Pivnichne, central Druzhba, and a bit further south, pushed into northwest Niu York. At this point the attack in this area appears well coordinated and the Russian tempo of ops is such that the Ukrainian forces are having difficulty digging in. Further, Russian gains in Niu York would appear to give the Russians an opportunity to push north-east toward Russian forces in Zalizhne, and thereby encircle elements of several Ukrainian brigades attempting to hold central Niu York.

Donetsk

Russian forces continue operations east of Pokrovsk, but there were no confirmed gains in that immediate area in the last 24 hours.  While Russian forces continue to drive west for Pokrovsk, other Russian forces immediately to the south are attacking to the south-east, south and south-west, whole those further south, near Krasnohorivka, Russians are attacking north-west, in an effort to close up gaps in the line and prevent the Russian advance from turning into a long, narrow salient that risks being cut off.

Further south, Russian forces west of Marinka and Heorivka continue to attack but there were no confirmed gains in this area.

Velyka Novosilke (VN) and Orikhiv

Russian forces continue to push north, making incremental gains from a line north of Pryyutne to just south of (or through) Makarivka (dues south of VN) to a point a short distance north of Novodonetske, keeping with a seeming Russian effort to keep their lines straight.

Russian forces continue to push north, north of Robotyne, and there are unconfirmed reports that they gained as much as a mile of ground north-east of Robotyne - north-west of Verbove. Russian forces have essentially retaken the prepared defenses they lost during the 2023 Ukrainian counter-offensive. The prepared defenses were south of the line the Russians were holding, with the Russian plan - which was executed - being to conduct an active defense in front of prepared lines, then slowly fallback to those defensive positions. Those prepared positions are once again under Russian control.

Dnepr River

Skirmishes, sniping and one and two boat-sized raises continue along the Dnepr River banks and on the islands near the mouth of the river. Russian sources report that Ukrainian forces conducted a  “10-12 boat" raid on Tendrivka Spit (the southern most of the two spits that form the south-west corner of the Russian occupied Ukraine), were repelled, and several boats were lost. This action has not been confirmed.

Air Operations

The UAF reported that on 6 August Russian forces launched 4 x Iskander class ballistic missiles, 2 x Kh-59 cruise missiles, and 16 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 2 of the Iskander ballistic missiles, both Kh-59s and 15 of the 16 Shahed drones. There was no report on damage caused by the 2 ballistic missiles that got through.

Politics and Diplomacy

Niger, taking a cue from Mali, which cut diplomatic relations with Ukraine yesterday, has decided it too will end diplomatic relations with Ukraine.

Economic Reporting

Feb 22   Mar 7   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Jun7 Jul9 Aug6 Aug7

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      80.06 85.19 76.77 77.89

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      75.81 81.73 73.51 74.68

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15      2.82 2.38 1.97 2.10

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      88.77 88.18 85.50 85.80

Wheat     8.52       12.94    10.71    6.17       6.40 5.71 5.40 5.43

Urals 56.56    67.61 67.61 72.23 71.40

SOKOL   67.02      74.63  75.61 70.02 69.34

FYI, Russian natural gas continues to flow through Ukraine to Europe, with a volume of 39.5 million cubic meters on 07 August and 42.4 million cubic meters on August 6th.

Budget deficit figures were released for Russia: 1.36 trillion Rubles for the 6 months from January 1st through July 1st, 0.7% of the country’s GDP.

By way of comparison, latest budget deficit figures for:

Ukraine 20.3% of GDP

US 5.6% of GDP

EU 3.5% of GDP

Thoughts

Concerning what is going on north-east of Sumy, in Russia’s Kursk Oblast, there does still appear to be some activity near the border, and multiple reports suggest it consists of perhaps 300 troops. One element of the force may - may - have reached as far as 9-10 miles (15 kilometers) into Russia before being pulled back - or stopped, and it appears that the Ukrainian elements have withdrawn to the immediate area of the border, although one Russian source lists a dozen small towns as having been taken by the Ukrainians, which is a reach for a force of 300. Another report insists that more Ukrainian forces have flowed across the border - more than several thousand - and that this invasion is designed to take control of key Russian facilities in the Kursk region, to include a nuclear power plant. is a full-blown invasion; this report seems to be an outlier and is probably pure propaganda.

There continue to be reports of small units from both sides moving back and forth across the border in this area, and multiple small skirmishes.

Taken at face value, this would seem to be an effort to force the Russians to shift forces to defend Kursk and thereby slow advances elsewhere.

I would guess there is a possibility that this is either a Russian false flag operation (a la the Mukden Incident), being used by the Kremlin to stir up patriotic fervor and justify more aggression, perhaps even a general mobilization, or it could be one of the Pro-Ukraine groups, supported by Ukraine, but officially acting on its own, operating in Russia, and the Kremlin is just executing a contingency plan to use such an attack to rally the people.

As you might recall, the Mukden Incident was a false flag operation by the Japanese Army in 1931 in which a bomb was detonated near a railroad track and used as justification for moving the army to protect the line and, in fact, what followed was the full invasion of Manchuria.

v/r pete