August 8th, 2024 

Overall  

Ground Operations  - Russian gains continue

- Sumy Border - more clarity

Politics - Martial Law, Mobilization extended

Weather

Kharkiv

79 and mostly cloudy, gusting over 20. Partly to mostly cloudy through the weekend, daily lows in the low 60s, daily highs near 80. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

83 and partly cloudy, gusting over 20. Mostly sunny through the weekend, partly cloudy into next week; daily lows in the mid to upper 60s, daily highs in the upper 80s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

71 and mostly sunny, gusting near 20. Partly to mostly cloudy for the next week, rain likely on Saturday; daily lows around 60, daily highs in the upper 70s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Ground Operations  

Sumy - Kursk Incursion

More clarity… Ukrainian vehicles have been confirmed inside Russia, there is, in fact, a large raid of some sort talking place, estimates vary from 1,000 to over 3,000 to “more than a brigade,” and Ukrainian forces appear to have pushed in as much as 6 miles (10km). One Russian asserted that Ukrainian forces now hold about 15 square miles (45 sq km) of terrain, including 11 small villages, and have sent out two probes along the 38K-030 Sudzha-Korenovo roadway, one headed roughly north, the other south (see map below).

Further, Ukrainian forces appear to have reached and taken control of the Gas Transmission System (GTS) at Sudzha, through which natural gas passes at a rate of 42 million cubic meters per day, en route Europe. The station is less than a half mile from the Ukrainian - Russian border.

Chief of the Russian General Staff, Gen. Gerasimov, now states that “about 1,000” troops are involved in the Ukrainian attack, and that some 40 Russian military personnel have been captured by the Ukrainians.

Gerasimov also reported, probably fairly accurately, on Ukrainian casualties, noting that Ukrainian forces had suffered approximately 100 KIA, several hundred WIA, and lost 54 pieces of equipment. Shortly thereafter this number was doubled to “660 total casualties,” plus 82 armored vehicles, suggesting the first numbers weren’t high enough and this might have been roughly accurate - Gerasimov simply reporting the actual figure he’d been brief, rather than the manufactured one.

The map below, from the Institute for the Study of War, shows the situation on the ground.

 

North of Kharkiv

Fighting - mainly small skirmishes - continued north and north-east of Kharkiv, but no gains or losses were reported. 

Bloggers report that additional Ukrainian forces are being moved into the areas of both Hlyboke and Vovchansk.

Donets River

Fighting continued along the length of the line of contact from Kupyansk to the Donets River but there were no reported gains or losses on either side.

Bakhmut

North and north-east of Bakhmut Russian forces had confirmed gains between Siversk and Rozdolivka, as well as gaining ground north of Bilohorivka, with additional fighting reported along virtually all of the line of contact.

West of Bakhmut fighting continues for eastern Chasiv Yar and the Donets Canal but there were no gains in the last 24 hours by either side.

West of Horlivka Russian forces continue on the attack but there were no confirmed gains in that general area. However, Russian sourced reporting suggests that most of Niu York is now under Russian control and there may have been small Russian gains just east of Toretsk as well, which will further threaten Ukrainian units in the developing pocket north-east of Niu York.

Donetsk City

Russian forces claimed more gains east of Pokrovsk - near the towns of Vesele and Ivanivka - but these could not be confirmed. Additional claims of gains were made just to the south of the thrust toward Pokrovsk, in the Zhelanne area, but these too were not confirmed. 

To the south-west of Donetsk City fighting continues along most of the line of contact, with small confirmed Russian gains in Kostyantynivka.

Velyka Novosilke (VN) and Orikhiv

Fighting continues across the south, with confirmed small Russian gains south of VN.

Dnepr River

Skirmishes continue on the east bank of the river and on the islands at the river’s mouth, but there were no changes in terrain held by either side.

Air Operations

The night of August 6th marked the 3rd night in a row in which Russian forces launched Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace, with 30 x Shahed launched at various targets, to include Kyiv, Kherson and Kharkiv. The UAF claimed it shot down all 30 drones.

Russian forces launched at least 2 unidentified ballistic missiles into the Sumy area as well; the UAF claimed to have shot these down as well.

Unconfirmed reports suggest that Ukrainian forces “shot down” a Russian Mi-28 Havoc attack helicopter with a drone, running the drone into the Havoc’s tail rotor; the aircrew apparently managed to put the helo down.

During the night of the 7th and morning of the 8h Russian forces, for the 4th night in a row, launched strikes assets into Ukrainian air space, with at least 2 x Iskander ballistic missiles, 2 x Kh-59 cruise missiles, and 4 x Shahed drones in Ukraine airspace; the UAF shot down or forced down (through electronic warfare) both cruise missiles and all 4 drones. 

Specific damage from the ballistic missiles was not reported.

Diplomatic and Political

President Zelensky signed two bills yesterday, extending Martial law and general mobilization by another 90 days. The current 90 day period ends on August 11th. This new extension represents the 12th extension of martial law.

Economic Reporting

Feb 22   Mar 7   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Jun7 Jul9 Aug7 Aug8

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      80.06 85.19 77.89 78.02

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      75.81 81.73 74.68 75.03

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15      2.82 2.38 2.10 2.08

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      88.77 88.18 85.80 86.98

Wheat     8.52       12.94    10.71    6.17       6.40 5.71 5.43 5.38

Urals 56.56    67.61 67.61 71.40 72.14

SOKOL   67.02      74.63  75.61 69.34 70.82

Thoughts

Several points might be made as to the incursion towards Kursk:

It’s not an invasion in the sense that the Ukrainians are not going to march to Moscow. It’s meant to force the Russians to rethink what they are doing. If the Russians divert forces from elsewhere inside Ukraine to deal with this incursion, then it has succeeded. On the other hand, if it draws more Russian forces into the fight, with no reallocation of forces already inside Ukraine, then Ukrainian forces were used to little avail and the Ukrainian force overall has been spread out and thinned - weakened..

As such, this constitutes a roll of the dice; which is the interesting point: they are rolling the dice, a recognition by Kyiv that they can't win simply by “doing more of the same.”

At the same time LTG Budanov, director of military intelligence, commented yesterday that the current Russian grinding offensive will culminate in 6 to 8 weeks, hinting that the Ukrainian counter-offensive will begin some time after that. It remains to be seen whether he is correct. Just before Bakhmut fell, and just before Avdiivka fell, analysts were suggesting that Russian forces were about to culminate…

As fr the attack near Kursk, it should be noted that the Ukrainian attack caught the Russians flat-footed. There was no additional support brought in, in anticipation of the attack. Even with modern, pervasive surveillance, the Russians had no real tactical warning. As such, the response in the first 2 days was by border guard troops, who have no meaningful combat training. There is now at least one Russian motorized rifle regiment in the area, but the Russians were surprised.

On the other hand, the Russian border guards did better than expected, and have slowed the Ukrainian attack. It now remains to be seen whether the Russians move forces from inside Ukraine or bring in additional forces.

More importantly, it remains to be seen how Russians accept this. Do they shrug and say “It’s war?” Do they recoil and more demand an end to the war? Or do their hackles come up and they demand Putin do more to win the war?

v/r pete