August 20th, 2024 

Overall  

Ground Operations  - Ukraine continues small advances in Kursk

- Russia continues small advances in Donbas

Politics - Scholz says Germany will still help next year

Weather

Kharkiv

94 and sunny. Mostly sunny through the week; daily lows in the mid 60s, daily highs in the mid 90s. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

94 and sunny. Sunny to party cloudy all week, daily lows in the upper 60s, daily highs in the 90s. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

90 and sunny. Partly cloudy to sunny for the week, daily lows in the upper 60s to low 70s, daily highs upper 80s to low 90s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Ground Operations

Kursk Salient - Syrskyi’s Raid

Ukrainian forces made small gains on both the east and west side of the salient. To the west, Ukrainian forces pushed into the small farming community of Vishnevka - just west of Snagost, despite Russian artillery and air strikes. 

On the other side of the salient, Ukrainian forces gained ground north of Sudzha about 7 miles (about 4 miles east of Malaya), as they pushed into Russkoe Porechnoe; 2 miles east of Sudzha, pushing into the small village of Agronom; and 10 miles south-east of Sudzha pushed into the town of Spalnoye.

Although still not clear, the activity on all sides of the salient after 2 weeks suggest that the Ukrainians are now trying to stabilize the salient and keep gradually expanding it, rather than making a dramatic strike towards a particular target, such as Kursk. Russian response continues to focus on bringing "other forces” in, that is, while a few forces from inside Ukraine have been moved, there seems to have more from other parts of Russia, to include reports of conscript units being moved in, which might pose an internal political problem to Putin.

Reports also note that a Russian Mining Battalion has been moved to the salient, suggesting Russian defensive efforts continue to expand.

North of Kharkiv

Russian reporting claims Russian gains due north of Kharkiv in the vicinity of Hlyboke, but this has not been confirmed. Fighting was noted both due north of Kharkiv and to the north-east, and there is additional reporting suggesting Russian troops are currently rotating units in and out of the area.

North of the Donets River

Fighting continues along the length of the line of contact and imagery confirms Russian gains south-east of Kupyansk near Novoselivske, and also west of Svatove. There were other claims of Russian gains, the most important being claims of gains around Makiivka, which would be of note as it sits on the Zherebets river. But this gain has not been confirmed.

Bakhmut

North of Bakhmut, the battle see-saws back and forth. For the last few days Ukrainian forces gained ground south-east of Siversk, but yesterday Russian forces appeared to push back, they retook some terrain, and the Russian Ministry of Defense reported that they had taken the railroad station at Vyimka. Vymka is a tiny “village” of less than a dozen buildings (which look like they may have been shelled earlier in the war), and a bit more than a mile south-east of the village is a rather badly beaten-up depot. If there is tactical significance - or any significance - to this railway station, beyond being a name on the  map, it is not intuitively obvious.

West and south of Bakhmut there are numerous reports of fighting and there are multiple claims of small advances, but cumulatively they seem to cancel each other out and there has been little real change in the lines for several weeks, with the exception last week of the Russian gains south of Bakhmut when they appeared to gain control of the high ground immediately west of Klishchivka. 

West of Horlivka Russian forces continue their slow advance. The Russian MOD claims - which in this case appear to be roughly correct - that Niu York is essentially controlled by Russian forces, who are clearing small pockets of Ukrainian soldiers, that the pocket north-east of Niu York has now been closed, Zelizne is now under Russian control, and that Russian forces have pushed through most of Pivnichne and are now threatening the eastern edge of Toretsk itself. The Ukrainian pockets may be able to hold on and be reinforced, but that is likely to be an expensive, high risk effort.

Donetsk City

The slow but now seemingly steady advance continues westward from the Donetsk - Avdiivka area. Russian control of Zavitne and Novozhelanne was confirmed (about 11 miles south-east of Pokrovsk), and this places Russian troops on the left flank of the Ukrainian forces that are holding near Karlivka. Pushing back those Ukrainian units would make the southern flank of Pokrovsk weaker, and reports suggest that Ukrainian forces in this area are already starting to withdraw to the west before they get fully flanked and isolated.

Fighting continues in the Krasnohorivka and Heorhiivka areas but there were no confirmed gains by Russian forces. 

Further south, more reports suggest Russian forces moving towards the 0532 roadway (Vuhledar to Marinka) and report that Russian forces have cut the road in two more spots (not identified). Reports also suggest Russian forces mopping up around the Pivdennodonbaska Coal Mine. The various small towns along the road and just to the east and west will probably be taken in fairly short order, but Vuhledar remains a very hard “nut to crack,” and Russian forces would probably prefer to just encircle it and pound it with artillery.  As you may recall, 2 years ago the Russian area commander was ordered to take the town at any cost and had two Russian Naval Infantry regiments badly mauled while achieving absolutely nothing for the effort. The town is protected by very dense mine fields, a host of obstructions, and the surviving buildings have all been heavily reinforced and turned into very hard fighting positions; all of which sits on top of a large and deep coal mine - bunker structure.

Southern Ukraine

Fighting continued across southern Ukraine, from Vuhledar to the Dnepr River, but there were no claims of ground gained.

Of note, the Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) commented on fighting continuing near Rozdolne, a small town about 5 miles north-east of Velyka Novosilke. Fighting in this area has been noted several times in the past week or so, but what has not been explained is how the Russian forces got there. The various maps and blogs show the closest Russian units in the general area of Zolota Nyva (for the Russian favoring sites), or about 2 miles further south near Novodonetske (for the Ukrainian favoring sites; Rozdolne is 4.5 miles north of Zolota Nyva. This may be garbled reporting, or bad plotting on a map, but the UGS has noted it several times over the past two weeks. Perhaps the Russians managed to get some sort of mechanized infantry or cavalry unit well past the Ukrainian lines, but the Ukrainians should have been able to roll them up. This bears closer watching to see what sorts out.

Air Operations 

Russian forces launched 19 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space and the UAF claimed it shot down all 19.

The oil depot in Proletarsk (130 miles east of the Sea of Azov) continues to burn (as of Tuesday afternoon) after being struck by Ukrainian drones early Sunday morning. No report on amount of stocks destroyed.

Russian strike assets (not clear if it was a drone or a missile) hit an industrial facility in Ternopil (about 50 miles east of Lviv) last night and the facility burned throughout the night. As of the mid morning the fire still burned, but had been contained; there were no reported injuries.

Politics and Diplomacy

Chancellor Scholz of Germany commented yesterday that, despite the 2025 budget, Germany will continue to support Ukraine through the EU loan program, specifically the EU - G7 joint, 50 billion Euro ($54 billion) loan.

"And we continue our support: with the help of a €50 billion loan which we are starting to allocate jointly with the G7. This will allow Ukraine to procure armament on a large scale. It can rely on this.”

A bill has passed the Verkhovna Rada (Ukrainian Parliament) today that bans Russian linked religious organizations from operating in Ukraine.

Metropolitan Klyment, spokesman for the Ukrainian Orthodox Church (UOC), noted that Bill No. 8371 "might ban the UOC-MP in Ukraine,” but noted that the UOC doesn’t have “MP” as part of it’s name.

"The Ukrainian Orthodox Church will continue operating as a true church recognised by the overwhelming majority of practicing believers in Ukraine and by local churches around the world. It is an objective thing. Any attempts to ban this objective thing will only discredit, including internationally, those who will try to do this.”

"UOC does not have administrative connections with any foreign centers,  there is no single Ukrainian document” that would show this.

Economic Reporting

Feb 22   Mar 7   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Jun7 Jul9 Aug8 Aug19 Aug20

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      80.06 85.19 78.02 79.05 77.67

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      75.81 81.73 75.03 76.01 74.37

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15      2.82 2.38 2.08 2.16 2.21

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      88.77 88.18 86.98 90.15 91.40

Wheat     8.52       12.94    10.71    6.17       6.40 5.71 5.38 5.53 5.52

Urals 56.56    67.61 67.61 72.14 77.00 74.97

ESPO  67.02      74.63  75.61 72.11

SOKOL 70.82 72.00 70.34

Note that heavily sanctioned Russian oil is now, in the case of Urals oil, priced  higher than West Texas Intermediate...

Thoughts

The Economist reports that the incursion into Russia, which was planned under the strictest security, involved three options: a strike into Kursk, a strike in Bryansk Oblast (north of Ukraine, abutting Belarus), and an attack on both at once.

Per the Economist, the primary goal was to force Russia to pull forces out of the Donbas, and secondarily to provide leverage for future negotiations.

President Zelenskyy has commented in the last 24 hours that the purpose was to create a buffer zone. In that regard there is some analysis that suggests the dropping the 3 bridges over the Seim River is designed to isolate the land between the river and the Ukrainian border and that the next move will be an attempt to seize that land, extending the buffer zone from the current salient, along the border to the north-west to the general vicinity of Tetkino (about 40 miles north-west of Sumy). Zelenskyy has also said that there was a desire to gain more Russian POWs for exchange for Ukrainian soldiers.

Of course, any plan can have multiple goals and succeed, as long as the planners - and the executors - are clear on the precedence.

At a practical level Ukrainian forces appear to be carving out their positions east of the Seim River (roughly the west edge of the salient), but have pushed beyond the Psel River in the east. To the north the Russians are building fighting positions and bunkers and anti-vehicle barriers to make movement north more difficult. A Russian mine laying battalion has moved into the area. What happens next really depends on what forces the Russians are willing to commit to push out the Ukrainians. Or, will the Russians be content to simply hold them in place while Russian forces inside Ukraine are advancing west of Horlivka and west of Donetsk?

In the end, war is about will. Does this change the commitment, the will of either party? Bargain chips for negotiations, or now more than ever, a fight to death?

v/r pete