August 15th, 2024 

Overall  

Ground Operations - Syrski’s Raid - Ukraine continues to advance

- Russian gains went of Donetsk

Politics - President Zelenskyy’s office denies any involvement in Nord Stream bombing

Weather

Kharkiv

76 and sunny. Partly cloudy to sunny all week; daily lows in the upper 50s, daily highs 80s. Winds variable, 5kts.

Melitopol

79 and sunny, gusting to 20. Sunny through next week; daily lows near 60, daily highs in the upper 80s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

76 and sunny, gusting over 20. Mostly sunny for the rest of the week, lows in the upper 50s, highs in the 80s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Ground Operations  

Kursk Incursion - referred to unofficially as "Syrskyi’s Raid" by the Ukrainian General Staff 

Russian bloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces marginally advanced in Kursk Oblast amid a generally slower tempo of Ukrainian operations as Russian forces continue attempts to stabilize the frontline in the area. 

Both Russian and Ukrainian bloggers report the pace of the Ukrainian incursion is slowing, and the ground gains are dropping off. This is, of course, to be expected as Russian forces arrive in the area, supplanting the ineffective national guard (Rostgvardia).

Reporting is still a bit confused, but Ukrainian forces appear to have made gains east, and south of Korenovo (the northwest edge of the incursion), and may have pushed back into the edge of Korenovo. There were reports of Ukrainian forces as far as 10 miles west of Korenovo, but I suspect these were more Cav units operating in the Russian rear. Whether the Ukrainians re-entered Snagost (south of Korenovo) or skirted the northern edge, is not clear. Meanwhile, Russian reporting insists Ukrainian forces north-east of Korenovo were turned back at several points

In the east, the fight for Subzha continues, but while there is fighting  on the eastern edge of that town, the center of the town appears to be in the full control of the Ukraine army right now. Ukrainian forces also pushed north-east and south-east from the Subzha area, and appear to have entered Mikhailovka (about 3 miles north-east of Subzha). One report claims that Mikhailovka is under Ukrainian control and has been for more than day, which conflicts with earlier reporting, but could readily be true.

Ukrainian units were located in imagery some 6 miles south-east of Subzha, in the immediate area just north of Ulanok, though whether they remained in the area or not isn’t clear. Ukrainian forces were also noted in Giri and Ozerki, but later reporting showed Russian reporters in those two towns. 

Overall, it appears that the Ukrainian forces may be trying to establish strong east and west flanks using roughly the line of the Psel river to the east (which lies on the east side of Subzha) and the Krepna river on the west (which passes through the middle of Korenovo), and once these flanks are secure, to then drive north toward Lgov. If so, taking and minting control of Korenovo is key to the next phase. It wold at least explain why the Russians are building an east-west defensive line south of Lgov.

Ukraine Pravda reports that the Ukrainian attack consists of at least 5 fully formed and manned brigades: 80th Air Assault Brigade, 82nd Air Assault Brigade, 95th Air Assault Brigade, 22nd Infantry Brigade and the 61st Infantry Brigade. Other units may have also been attached.

Russian reporting continues to note small raids by Ukrainian elements across the border to the south in Belgorod Oblast.

North of Kharkiv

Russian forces made small gains both west of Hlyboke (due north of Kharkiv) and just south-east of Hlyboke. There were no other confirmed gains in this fight.

Donets River

Fighting continued along the line of contact but there were no confirmed gains or losses.

Bakhmut

Fighting continued north, west and south of Bakhmut but there were no confirmed gains in any of these area. Of note, Russian bloggers are reporting that Russian forces now have sole control of the high ground west of Klishchivka. If so, they may be able to unseat the Ukrainian forces between Klischivka and the Donets Canal, which would leave the Ukrainian forces in Chasiv Yar with an unprotected southern flank, complicating the defense of that town.

West of Horlivka Russian forces remain on the attack and the pocket north-east of Niu York appears to be getting smaller and smaller, but there were no confirmed gains elsewhere.

Donetsk City

Russian forces made confirmed gains north of Novoselivka, and also appear to have gained more control of Zhelanne (11 miles southeast of Pokrovsk). Gains were also reported across much of the front but could not be confirmed. The key point is that the Russian effort in this area has not dimensioned despite the Kursk incursion.

South-west of Donetsk City fighting was reported in Krasnohorivka and Heorhiivka, as well as points near the T-0524 roadway, but there were no confirmed gains anywhere.

Southern Ukraine - Velyka Novosilke, Orikhiv and the Dnepr River

Fighting was reported across most of southern Ukraine, but there were no confirmed gains or losses anywhere. Of note, the spotty reporting here and elsewhere reflects that the focus is on Kursk, not a drop-off in the level of operations.

Air Operations 

BDA (Bomb Damage Assessment) of the August 13th large-scale drone strikes on four Russian airfields (reported yesterday) reveals several damaged hangars and 1 MiG-31 with some damage.

Russian forces launched 2 x Kh-59/69 cruise missiles and 23 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace, and the UAF claimed it shot down 17 x drones. There were reports of “infrastructure damage” in Zhytomyr, but whether that was caused by the missiles or drones is not clear.

Politics

In the wake of the German Prosecutor General’s  issuing of an arrest warrant for a Ukrainian wanted in connection with the Nord Stream bombing (Sept. 26, 2022), Mykhailo Podoliak, adviser to President Zelenskyy, issued a statement denying any Ukrainian involvement:

"Ukraine has nothing to do with the Nord Stream explosions.”

But Wednesday the Wall Street Journal published a report, based on their own investigation into the bombing, that suggested that General Zaluzhniy, then the Commander in Chief of the Ukrainian Army, backed it, that it was approved by Zelensky, and financed by several Ukrainian business men. 

Further, in June of 2022, the Journal reports, the CIA found out about the plan, and Zelenskyy tried to stop it, but the General went ahead with the bombing.

Zaluzhnyi has denied he knew of any such plan.

Economic Reporting

Feb 22   Mar 7   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Jun7 Jul9 Aug8 Aug14 Aug15

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      80.06 85.19 78.02 81.20 81.33

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      75.81 81.73 75.03 78.83 78.49

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15      2.82 2.38 2.08 2.16 2.28

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      88.77 88.18 86.98 91.32 88.84

Wheat     8.52       12.94    10.71    6.17       6.40 5.71 5.38 5.29 5.56

Urals 56.56    67.61 67.61 72.14 76.94 76.03

SOKOL   67.02      74.63  75.61 70.82 74.04 72.55

Thoughts

Commercial imagery shows new trenches and fighting positions just south of Lgov and in other areas around the Kursk incursion, suggesting Russian engineering units are constructing defensive positions to present a de facto limit to Ukrainian advances, particularly if they push north from their current positions.

Some in the press have commented that the Russians are building defensive lines 15-20 miles back from the border, and well back from current fighting, ceding land to the Ukrainians, but, of course that is where you build defensive lines - someplace where you can build them without losing engineers and where there will be time and space to complete them. 

This is what the Ukrainian army did not do west of Avdiivka, instead building a series of defensive lines that were not finished, and which they immediately were pushed out of. The result is that Pokrovsk is now getting struck by rockets.

The Russians may have messed up a lot, but they do appear to understand defensive warfare.

And about those F-16s:

A photo was released by the UAF on Monday showing an F-16 with Sidewinders and AMRAAMs (air-to-air missiles) as it took off, but the photo was later deleted from the UAF page, with no explanation.

Yesterday, President Zelenskyy commented that Ukraine would benefit from former US and NATO F-16 pilots, now retired, coming to Ukraine to fly F-16s.

While the number of F-16s in Ukraine has not been officially released, the number is suspected to be 6, with more “inbound” in the near term. But pilot training has been more difficult than expected.

And, of course, the airplane is only as effective as the weapons provided it and that too has not been well reported.

Given Zelenskyy’s comment, it would seem that the F-16 program still has some steps to take before it can contribute substantively to the war effort.

v/r pete