August 29th, 2024  Next Summary September 2nd, 2024

Overall  

Ground Operations  - Ukraine - no advances in Kursk - now Ukraine must hold

- Russia continues advances in Donbas, nearing Pokrovsk

Air Operations - F-16 lost

Weather

Kharkiv

86 and sunny.  Partly cloudy into next week; daily lows in the upper 60s, daily highs in the low 90s. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

87 and partly cloudy, gusting to 20. Thunderstorms possible tonight, partly to mostly cloudy into next week. Daily lows around 70, daily highs in the upper 80s. Winds easterly, 5-15kts.

Kyiv

85 and sunny. Partly to mostly cloudy through Monday, daily lows in the low 60s, daily highs in the upper 80s. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Ground Operations

Kursk Salient

Ukrainian forces appear to have pushed a bit further north-east from Korenevo, but overall, the lines appear to have started to set, Russian forces have dug in, Ukrainian forces are digging in, and the effort may be switching to a Ukrainian “hold” effort. 

If Gen. Syrskyi is correct, more Russian forces are flowing to this area, even as the Russians build more defensive positions, as the Russian prepare to try to push the Ukrainian forces back to the border. Current blogger maps show the Ukrainian force as 8 brigades and 3 independent battalions; the Russian force is shown as 4 regular army brigades plus a large number of border guard and national guard elements.

North of Kharkiv 

Both sides continue to probe and then exchange artillery fire but there has been no confirmed change in the lines for several days. Ukrainian HQ reports that the level of intensity of the engagements has tapered off since early August, with the incursion into Kursk Oblast.

North of the Donets River

Russian forces remained on the attack along virtually the entire line of contact, and had small, confirmed gains south-east of Kupyansk. Included are reports of gains in and around the small town of Stelmakhivha (about 16-17 miles south-south-east of Kupyansk and 9 miles north-west of Svatove), which sits on the Zherebets River; reportedly Russian troops are now operating on both sides of the river around this town. As with this entire region, these gains are routinely gained and traded back within several weeks, both sides riding a see-saw give and take that has changed little in more than a year. It would be surprising if the Russians had adequate extra forces to exploit this gain.

Bakhmut

North-east of Bakhmut Ukrainian forces appear to have regained some ground to the west of Ivano-Darivka, but fighting continues along essentially the entire line of contact  in this area.

Russian forces claimed new gains in eastern Chasiv Yar, but this is unconfirmed; fighting continues to the south, immediately west of Klishchivka.

West of Horlivka, Russian forces continue to advance further into Toretsk, and appear to occupy virtually all of Druzhba and Pivnechne. A bit further to the south Russian forces continue to slowly clear out Niu York.

Donetsk City

Russian forces continue to make gains as they push westward toward Pokrovsk. Geolocated imagery confirmed that Russian forces are in Memryk and pushing into Seledove on the south side of the salient, and made further gains outside of Krasnyi Yar and Mykolaivka in the direction of Pokrovsk. Further small gains were made across much the north, west and south sides of the salient and at the western-most confirmed point, in the area of Mykolaivka, it appears that Russian forces are now about 5 miles from Pokrovsk. 

Commenting on the situation around Pokrovsk, Gen. Syrskyi said the fighting was “fierce.”

There are further claims - not yet confirmed - that Russian forces have pushed into Myrnohrad, just east-north-east of Pokrovsk, which would place Russian troops less than 3 miles from the eastern edge of Pokrovsk. On the south side of the salient Russian forces continue to move slowly south and west as Ukrainian forces appear to slowly withdraw to the west.

Elsewhere west and south-west of Donetsk City Russian forces continued to press into Krasnohorivka and Heorhivka but made no claims of any ground gains.

Fighting further to the southwest continues as well, with Russian forces continuing to press into Kostyantynivka, and they probably control the entire town, as well as pressing westward in several nearby areas in their continuing attempt to take full control over the O-0524 roadway. Overall, these efforts would establish a new - straight - Russian line that would run from the Vuhledar area to Korahove (7 miles west of Heorhivka), to Seledove, to Pokrovsk. 

Southern Ukraine and the Dnepr River

Skirmishes and artillery fire were reported across southern Ukraine and along the Dnepr River but there were no claims of any gains or losses in terrain.

Air Operations 

The Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) confirmed news reports of the loss of a UAF F-16 on Monday. The pilot, Oleksii "Moonfish" Mes, was killed in the loss of the airplane.

The UGS noted that the aircraft was not lost to enemy fire. One anonymous source blamed the loss on pilot error; the UAF was quick to correct that and said that it was not know to be pilot error and they were investigating the loss.

The aircraft crashed while in pursuit of a Russian cruise missile; I have no idea what caused the crash but “friendly fire” is a distinct possibility in as much as this was in the middle of a 200 missile - drone attack by the Russians.

Various news media are reporting that the White House is applying pressure on France and the UK to limit the use of French and British weapons and bar their use on striking targets deep inside Russia, based on those British and French weapons using certain data, as well as containing certain subsystems, that are US derived. This will clearly be on the agenda when President Zelenskyy meets with President Biden in the next several weeks.

Ukrainian forces reported on the drone strike on Russian oil depots on the 27th. The first  target was the Atlas Oil Depot in Rostov, which started a fire, which has been contained. He seconds strike was on the Zenir oil depot in Kirov (700+ mile strike). Two drones were shot down, a third hit a processing plant, resulting in a fire, that was apparently put out.

Russia forces launched 2 x Kh-59/69 cruise missiles and 1 possible ballistic missile into Ukrainian airspace the morning of the 28th. The UAF did not claim any hits against the 3 targets, and 1 missile hit in Kryvyi Rih, causing 9 casualties.

Elsewhere, the UAF is claiming that one of their personnel shot down a Su-35  with a MANPAD (MAN Portable Air Defense - a hand held surface to air missile). While technically possible to shoot down a tactical aircraft such as an SU-35 with a MANPAD, it requires that the pilot of the aircraft make a lot of bad decisions, like getting low, slow and hanging around long enough to be seen and shot at.

Economic Reporting

Feb 22   Mar 7   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Jun7 Jul9 Aug8 Aug28 Aug29

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      80.06 85.19 78.02 78.92 80.19

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      75.81 81.73 75.03 74.87 76.26

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15      2.82 2.38 2.08 1.90 2.10

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      88.77 88.18 86.98 91.51 92.00

Wheat     8.52        12.94    10.71    6.17       6.40 5.71 5.38 5.36 5.42

Urals 56.56    67.61 67.61 72.14 75.39 73.89

ESPO  67.02      74.63 70.04

SOKOL 70.82 73.34 70.88

Thoughts

Ukrainian forces continue an orderly withdrawal and appear to be falling into prepared defenses around Pokrovsk. One blogger noted that the Ukrainian General Staff and the Ministry of Defense had made a point of stating that the best units in the Ukrainian army were committed to the Kursk salient, and the defense north of Kharkiv, which leaves Pokrovsk where?

Meanwhile, Syrskyi and President Zelenskyy both have made the point that at least part of the goal for the Kursk attack was to force the Russians to draw forces away from Donetsk. In his remarks yesterday Syrskyi noted that the Russians were actually flowing more forces and supplies into the attack on Pokrovsk. So, at least in that regard the Kursk attack did not come off as planned.

The Ukrainians are left with a need to demonstrate that the defenses, and the personnel and logistics flowing into Pokrovsk, are adequate to hold. The citizens have mostly evacuated, the town, once of 60,000, is nearly abandoned and will soon be pummeled. Can the Ukrainians hold?

As for the Russians, can they flow enough forces into Kursk, and into the Pokrovsk attack, to, in the first case reestablish the initiative and in the second maintain the initiative? Do they have enough trained troops and enough ordnance to generate thos fights?

I don’t know the real numbers - troops and supplies - on either side, but this will be brutally interesting as it unfolds over the next several months.

v/r pete

 August 28th, 2024 

Overall  

Ground Operations  - Ukraine - no advances in Kursk

- Russia continues advances in Donbas, nearing Pokrovsk

Air Operations  - Power grid struck, electricity rationing

Weather

Kharkiv

84 and cloudy, gusting near 20.  Partly cloudy to cloudy for the next week; daily lows in the upper 60s, daily highs around 90. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

88 and partly cloudy, gusting over 25. Mostly cloudy through the weekend, daily lows around 70, daily highs in the upper 80s. Winds easterly, 5-15kts.

Kyiv

80 and partly cloudy, gusting near 20. Partly cloudy through the weekend, daily lows in the mid 60s, daily highs in the upper 80s. Winds easterly, 10-15kts.

Ground Operations

Kursk Salient

Fighting continued over the weekend but neither side claimed any significant gains of terrain. The edges of the salient remain much as before, from Korenevo south-west to Kanarovka and from there south to the border; from Korenevo east-south-east to Pogrebki, and from Pogrebki south-south-east to Martynovka, then south to Makhnovka, then to Borki and then  almost south-west to the border. 

Small unit attacks - probes and artillery fire - continue along most of that front line. Various reports note Russian units preparing defenses, ostensibly an effort to contain the Ukrainian force from taking any more terrain.

Ukrainian commander Gen. Syrskyi commented during a press conference that Russia has now moved 30,000 troops into the Kursk area. It is of note, however, that these troops did not come from those sectors of the front that were heavily engaged but rather are from various reserve units and units from non-critical sectors, while the drive for Pokrovsk continues to receive men and material.

Syrskyi stated that Ukraine now controls 100 villages and towns spread over 1,260 sq km (480 sq miles (about 1/3rd the size of Rhode Island)).

It is also of note that there were several more small probes by Ukraine forces across the border south of the Kursk salient in Belgorod Oblast.

North of Kharkiv 

Fighting continued in both pockets - north and north-east of Kharkiv, but there were no gains claimed. Of note, Ukrainian HQ reported Russians using drones to salt mine fields in the area. 

North of the Donets River

Fighting continued along the length of the line of contact, but there were no new gains or losses of terrain. 

Bakmut

There were no confirmed gains by Russia forces north or west of Bakhmut.

South of Bakhmut, west of Horlivka, Russian forces continue to make small gains pushing westward into eastern and south-eastern Toretsk. Russian forces appear to have taken control of Pivnichne and most of Druzhba, and are approaching central Toretsk. There still appears to be a small Ukrainian force in Niu York, thought it appears to be, at this point, surrounded by Russia forces. 

Donetsk City

Overall Russian forces remain on the attack, and continue to grind out gains. The Russian push for Pokrovsk continues to grow into a noticeable salient and if Ukrainian forces were adequate and logistics adequate it might be ripe for a pincer to cut off the Russian attack, but right now that appears to be beyond the capability of the Ukrainian army.

Russian forces continued to make gains along most of the western edge of the salient, as well as to the south-west and north-west. It appears that, at least in several small towns, Ukraine forces are slowly withdrawing westward, an apparent recognition that they can’t hold everywhere. Using the more conservative blogs and maps places Russian forces along a line that runs rom Hrodivka south-west to Mykolaivka, west of Krutyi Yar and Novohrodivka and then south to Mykhailivka, placing at least one element of the Russian army just 5 miles from Pokrovsk.

Some reporting suggests the Russian forces are pushing west along the rail line and several key roads and bypassing denser urban areas where Ukrainian troops may be dug in. At this point it isn’t crystal clear whether the Ukrainians are dug in and waiting, or, as seems probable, they have withdrawn to the west and are building up forces and defenses in and around Pokrovsk. But that will presumably sort it self out in the next several days as the Russian clear these small towns that now sit in their rear.

Reacting to the deteriorating situation, the military governor of the Donetsk Oblast directed that banks in Pokrovsk close on Monday (today). There has already been a general evacuation of Pokrovsk. ATMs will continue to operate  but the banks will close, and bank personnel are to evacuate by Friday.

Russian forces are also pushing to the south-west and appear to be making some effort to expand into the region south of the salient, as they attempt to close on, then push beyond the O-0524 roadway. Small gains were noted in Kostyantynivka and further south near Vodyane.

Southern Ukraine 

Fighting continued across southern Ukraine with small unit assaults and artillery fire, but there were no confirmed gains or losses of terrain.

Fighting was reported along the Dnepr River and on the islands at the mouth, with Russian forces gaining no ground. Ukrainian forces attempted a landing on Kinburn Spit and were also unable to gain a foothold.

Air Operations 

Air operations have been fairly heavy since Friday. The Russian targets were, again, energy infrastructure, to include the Kyiv Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP)  north of the city. Ukrainian officials insist there was no significant damage to the HPP or the dam. Power grid targets were struck in Lviv, Odesa, Volyn, Khmelnytskyi, Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, and Zaporizhia oblasts.

The Kyiv Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP) was struck but damage is reportedly minor, and the dam was not seriously damaged. 

However, because of the overall damage to the power grid since the war began, and especially last winter, as the most recent damage is addressed electricity rationing will be in effect for most of the country.

On August 25 Russian forces launched:

3 x  Kh-47M2 Kinzhal ballistic missiles

6 x Iskander-M ballistic missiles 

77 x Kh-101 cruise missiles

28 x Kalibr cruise missiles 

3 x  Kh-22 cruise missiles

10 x Kh-59/69 cruise missiles

109 x Shahed drones

The UAF claimed it shot down:

1 x Kh-47 Kinzhal ballistic missile

2 x  Iskander-M ballistic missile

1 x Kh-22 cruise missile 

99 x cruise missiles (mix of Kh-101s, Kalibrs, and Kh-59/69)

99 x Shaheds drones. Per the UAF, 2 drones crashed in Belarus, at least one strayed into Polish air space for a few minutes, and “some” drones crashed.

On August 26th Russian forces launched: 

3 x Kh-47 "Kinzhal" ballistic missiles

1 x Iskander-M ballistic missile

1 x  Iskander-K cruise missile 

5 x Kh-101 cruise missiles 

81 x Shahed-136/131 drones 

The UAF claimed it shot down 

5 x Kh-101 missiles

60 x Shahed drones

10 x Shahed drones crashed in unspecified areas of Ukraine, one drone crossed the border into Belarusian airspace. There was no specific reporting on the remaining drones

Power grid targets were struck in Kyiv, Khmelnytskyi, Rivne, Vinnytsia, Cherkasy, Kherson, Mykolaiv, Zaporizhia, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Zhytomyr, Sumy, Chernihiv and Kirovohrad oblasts.

Ukrainian drones struck another oil depot in the Kamensky district of Rostov (north of Rostov about 50 miles, just east of the Ukraine border).

Politics and Diplomacy

Reports from Russian Military press claims a rise in Russian volunteer enlistments of 50 - 100% in the last 3 weeks since the Ukrainian  incursion into Kursk Oblast and the new law banning the Ukrainian Orthodox Church Moscow Patriarchate. Several specific military district recruiting figures are cited but whether that is taking place across the Russia is unknown.

Russia Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Zakharova commented on the possibility of negations:

"In June this year, Russian President Vladimir Putin, I think we can even say, in a gesture of good will, put forward quite realistic proposals. They were aimed at a long-term and fair settlement. However, the criminal terrorist regime of Zelensky, instead of seriously considering them - it seems to me, to put it mildly, the most generous proposals by the Russian side - carried out a bloody terrorist attack on the Kursk Region and its residents. I would say that the attack was suicidal for the Zelensky regime. Ukrainian militants and foreign mercenaries are committing atrocities, shooting civilians and volunteers, hitting civilian infrastructure, targeting journalists, and endangering nuclear power facilities. Well, what kind of peace talks can there be under such conditions, and with whom can [they] be held? Of course, peace talks with the terrorist regime in Kiev are out of the question.”

"It is clear that neither Kiev, nor the United States, nor its NATO minions need a settlement. They are interested, as they have already said, in causing the maximum damage to Russia. Accordingly, this delays any settlement and contributes to the escalation of the conflict.”

“[Kiev] spreading and turning into an international terrorist movement, the origins of which come from European soil."

"Yes, the fertilizers are American, but the soil is European, and these terrorist sprouts have emerged on it and are now spreading around the world. The Kiev regime is a terrorist organization, which, as we now see, has already reached the African continent.”

Economic Reporting

Feb 22   Mar 7   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Jun7 Jul9 Aug8 Aug26 Aug28

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      80.06 85.19 78.02 81.42 78.92

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      75.81 81.73 75.03 77.43 74.87

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15      2.82 2.38 2.08 1.98 1.90

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      88.77 88.18 86.98 92.00 91.51

Wheat     8.52       12.94    10.71    6.17       6.40 5.71 5.38 5.28 5.36

Urals 56.56    67.61 67.61 72.14 74.20 75.39

ESPO  67.02      74.63 70.04

SOKOL 70.82 72.29 73.34

Germany’s economy, with a GDP of $4.46 trillion, representing 24% of the EU economy, shrank by 0.1% last quarter.

Thoughts

President Zelenskyy will make the case to President Biden that it is now time to flow as many weapons as possible, as fast as possible to Ukraine, that Russia is ready to break and come hat in hand to the negotiating table. 

Zelenskyy, in his Independence Day (August 24th) speech, noted that: “A sick old man from Red Square, who constantly threatens everyone with a red button, will not dictate any red lines to us.” Several other prominent Ukrianain have since suggested that President Putin has no real red line. 

In his meeting with Biden I suspect Zelenskyy will make the case that this increased aggression - more attacks with longer range weapons, deep into Russia - is possible because the Kursk salient called Putin’s bluff - it demonstrates what he is saying: there is no “red line,” Putin will not use nuclear weapons, nor will he call for a general mobilization, and therefore he is, in fact susceptible to a significant increase in pressure. Zelenskyy will argue that all that needs to be done is to give Ukraine the weapons and they will be able to do the rest, that Russia can, in fact be defeated and forced to negotiate away the Ukrainian land they now occupy.

v/r pete