Bomb Damage Assessment

June 22nd, 2025

Language is important: President Trump said that a decision would be made “within 2 weeks.” It was, less than 48 hours later, I think. 

I will leave to others the BDA (Bomb Damage Assessment), as it will no doubt be a while before we have clear evidence of what was destroyed by the 14 x GBU-57s, and what remains. Folks who have never had to walk through that process should understand that this can be a tricky process even under the best of circumstances. There are endless incidents where bombs and other weapons appear to score direct hits on a target yet the target seems to miraculously survive. And there are other incidents where a single round hits and seems to do nothing but ends up destroying the entire complex or sinking the battleship. (If you are looking for a good book on the latter, the book “Shinano” by Capt. Joseph Enright (who sank Shinano - Japan’s largest aircraft carrier, made from the hull of a Yamato class battleship) is a fascinating tale.)

Add to the problem that, in the case of the strike on Fordow, the target was 300 feet underground and BDA will be very difficult. And even if we have some terribly secret source - the Ayatollah’s butler, perhaps - who knows if reports being sent to the Ayatollah are accurate? Might his minions be telling him what he wants to hear? So, when his butler calls in, he might tell us what he knows. But is it correct? So, this will take a while to be certain.

But, in the meantime, there are some things that can be drawn from all this, call it the “Strategic BDA:”

First, there is lots of whining and moaning, and some of it is earned, but US weapon systems work pretty well when need be. Folks - like the folks in Beijing or the Kremlin - should be careful in discounting US systems and US forces. They should also take note that there are some things that the US can do that they cannot and that maybe fighting the US might not be as easy as their generals have told them.

And a “tip of the hat” to those Air Force guys and the folks over at the Mighty 8th. As we say in the Navy, Bravo Zulu.

Two, we have very capable memories. It may not appear so to those outside of the services, but inside the services there is a great deal of quiet satisfaction here. 45 years ago Iranian students overran the US Embassy in Tehran, a move the then new government in Tehran could have condemned. They could have tried to settle things with the students. Instead, they sided with the students and effectively endorsed this action. It was, for all intents, an act of war. And there are tens of thousands of Americans who were personally involved in that crises over the next 444 days. We all remember.

Iran was directly responsible for the Beirut Baracks bombing - and the bombing of both the US and the French embassies in Beirut. 241 Marines killed, 19 more Americans killed at the embassy and 58 dead Frenchmen.

Iran was and is the de facto parent of Hezbollah - which, among a host of actions (an incomplete list), was responsible for the Khobar Towers bombing in 1996 that killed 19 Americans and wound nearly 500 US and allied soldiers. 

Iran funded and supplied hundreds and hundreds of shaped charges, etc. that were responsible for killing more than 600 US Soldiers and wounding literally thousands more in Iraq during OIF.

In that sense, there is a real sense of payback here, though I’m not sure the debt is fully paid.

Third, while the UN and a host of other international organizations, and several US administrations, used a lot of words, none of them prevented anyone from developing nuclear weapons; it seems that Trump and the US just did. A previous President received a Nobel prize for supposedly raising global nuclear awareness - and accomplishing nothing. Trump just made it clear that Iran will not be allowed to have nuclear weapons and sent a clear signal to the rest of the world, or at least to those who might be interested in building their own nuclear arsenal, that they might want to rethink the idea.

Fourth, and finally, there is a lesson for a few other world leaders, in particular Presidents Putin and Xi: take a step back and review your earlier assessments of President Trump. It appears that he really does mean it when he says that there are limits.  

This past Monday, a certain Senator commented that “If TACO Trump is already folding on Iran, the American people need to know about it.” (TACO means “Trump Always Chickens Out.”) But it appears that, indeed, while he clearly wants peace (look up Rwanda and the Congo), President Trump has red lines - that are clear to him if no body else. But, they should not be clear to anyone else, lest others tempt fate and get too near. And just as clearly, those red lines should not be crossed. Maybe Russia and China should consider taking “one step back” just to be sure they aren’t too near a red line. Perhaps Putin and Xi should remember that the next time they talk to Trump.