June 26th, 2025

Politics - President Trump praises to work on more Patriot missiles 

- POW Exchange 

Combat Ops - Fighting continues, few confirmed gains.

- Light air strike day

Weather

Kharkiv

68 and partly cloudy, gusting over 35. Sunny Friday, rain showers Saturday and Sunday, partly cloudy Monday. Daily lows in around 60, daily highs in the 70s. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Melitopol

77 and sunny, gusting over 30. Sunny on Friday, thunderstorms all weekend, mostly sunny next week. Daily lows in the low 60s, daily highs in the 80s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

68 and partly cloudy, gusting to 20. Rain Friday and Saturday, then partly cloudy weather. Daily lows in the upper 50s, daily highs in the low 70s. Winds westerly, 10-15kts.

Politics and Diplomacy

President Trump has promised to try to transfer more Patriot missiles to Ukraine.

Russia and Ukraine completed another prisoner exchange, each side turning over 109 POWs.

Polls in two eastern European countries:

In Poland: 46% support reducing or eliminating military support to Ukraine.

In Hungary: 95% oppose Ukrainian membership in the EU.

The Danish government will provide 500 million Kroner ($79 million) to help accelerate Ukrainian weapon production.

The UK will provide 350 x Advanced Short Range Air-to-Air Missiles (ASRAAMs), compatible with RAVEN ground based air defense systems, augmenting the 13 RAVEN systems Ukrainian now has. RAVEN consists of 2 ASRAAM’s mounted on a 6x6 truck.

Ground Operations

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Fighting was reported along the border near Tetkino (north-east of Sumy City), and along the edge of the Russian “buffer zone’ north of SUMY City, but there were no changes to the front lines.

Russian forces north of Kharkiv city gained ground in the north-center of the city of Vovchansk.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Russian sources claim Russian forces made gains immediately north-east of Kupyansk in the small town of Holubivka and by one estimate have closed to the banks of the Oskil river, opposite of the northern end of Kupyansk, creating a small pocket between the Oskil river and the town of Radkivka. However, commercial imagery shows Russian forces about 2 miles north of this point as of several days ago.

Further south, Ukrainian forces northeast of Borova pushed into Zelenyi Hai and have probably retaken it. Zeleny Hai was a farm village of perhaps 40 homes.

Further south, unconfirmed Ukrainian reporting notes that Ukraine forces operating north and west of Ridokub pushed back a Russian attack, counter-attacked and regained land north-west of that town.

BAKHMUT TO TORETSK TO DONETSK CITY

Fighting continues along virtually the entire line of contact but there were no confirmed gains noted in this area. However, unconfirmed, but credible, reports suggest Russian forces have entered Oleksandro Kalynove but have not yet been able to secure a hold on part of the town.

Russian use of drones, particularly fiber-optic controlled drones - which obviously can't be jammed, is forcing Ukrainian forces to fall back to provide a wider buffer zone and more time to respond to drones.

Further west and south, fighting continues along the perimeter of the Pokrovsk perimeter, and Russian forces had confirmed gains east of Pokrovsk, pushing north of  Shevchenko Pershe (about 10 miles north-east of Pokrovsk, about 2 miles north of the T0504 roadway). This means that the Russian forces were able to work across the open terrain north of Malynivka and now can attack the towns of Poltavka and Novo Poltavka from the west, supporting the current attacks from the south-east.

Ukrainian forces continue to report that Russian forces have not penetrated Dnipropetrovsk oblast, but reporting suggests Russian forces have pushed past Muravka and are operating along the Solana river to the south-west.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

South of the Vovcha River imagery confirms Russian forces have taken the small town of Yalta, and will be pushing west from Yalta to the small town of Zirka and thereby closing the small pocket formed by the Mokhri Yaly River and the Vovcha River.

Further south, Ukrainian forces gained ground just south-west and south of Novopil, moving up along one tree line across the farmland.

Air Operations

During the night of  June 25th-June 26th Russian forces launched 41 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 8 drones, and 16 drones were also “lost” (brought down by EW).

Damage and casualties have been reported in seven oblasts, but other reports have not been collated yet.

RuAF tacair struck 21 towns.

During the night of  June 24th-June 25th Russian forces launched 71 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 32 drones,  and 20 drones were also “lost” (brought down by EW).

Damage and casualties have been reported in Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, Odessa and Zaporizhia oblasts. 

RuAF tacair struck 12 towns.

President Zelenskyy noted in his comments last night that Russian forces have launched 28,743 x Shahed drones against Ukraine since February 2022, and 2,736 x Shahed drones during the current month.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Feb7 Mar4 Apr8 May8 Jun9 Jun25 Jun26

Brent      94.71      120.90    75.58      74.89 70.00 64.80 61.93 66.80 67.80 67.74

WTI     92.10    119.50  71.29      71.17 66.97 61.37 59.00 64.89 64.99 65.06

NG       3.97        8.41      2.15    3.37 4.44 3.69 3.64 3.69 3.52 3.38

Wheat     8.52       10.71    6.17     5.86 5.37 5.38 5.34 5.49 5.50 5.44

Ruble     85        58.48    82.59    96.88 89.50 86.24 82.45 79.27 78.23 78.67

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 - 36.4 41.46 41.40 41.18 41.55 41.55 41.68 41.56

Urals 56.56    68.32 65.49 52.76 54.13 60.84 64.94 64.26

ESPO 71.50 70 48.90 63.97 69.14 69.68

Sokol 70.92 67.20 61.42 57.39 61.51 62.82 62.76

Total Ukrainian government debt climbed $1 billion in May and now equals $181 billion. 

Thoughts

At the Questions and Answers session at the end of the NATO summit, President Trump, in response to a question, commented that the US would work to provide Ukraine with Patriot missiles.

The complication, of course, is that the production line’s capacity falls short of the demand. 

To begin, there is the obvious use rate of Ukraine, which is not public knowledge but clearly the Ukrainian air force (which operates 6 Patriot batteries) is firing the Patriots at a rate that far exceeds the numbers they are being given and they want more. At the same time, Patriots are being used in the Mid East by US forces in Iraq and Qatar in self-defense as well as by US forces in support of Israel. Qatar’s Patriot units also have been used in self-defense, and Saudi Arabia has used them extensively against Houthi attacks.  And there is a demand for more missiles in the Pacific - both from US and allied nations - as the China threat grows (Japan, the ROK and Taiwan all have Patriot batteries). And, of course, each of these nations has a need for a certain number of training rounds, to ensure maximum crew proficiency and readiness.

Lockheed Martin production of the missiles (there are two types, Ukraine uses both types - PAC-2 and PAC-3) was set at 740 total before Russia invaded Ukraine. They have been able bump production to 500 per year for the PAC-3 (the variant with the improved anti-missiles capability), and the goal is to increase production to 600 per year (50 per month) by the end of 2025 (one article I read suggested that Lockheed was hoping to reach 650 per year but, again, that is not definitive).

PAC-2 production rate is to increase to 35 per month (420 per year) by 2027, though there is some suggestion they might be able to reach that rate sooner, but that too is not definitive.

And, Germany will begin production of 500 x PAC-2 per year in September 2026.

But, the numbers actually being fired is both closely held and clearly worrying a lot of people…

v/r pete