June 13th, 2025

Politics - G7 meeting June 15-17. President Zelenskyy will attend

- Next POW exchange “in a few days”

Combat Ops - Russian gains south-west of Pokrovsk

- Russian gains west of Toretsk

Weather

Kharkiv

62 and cloudy, gusting over 25. Rain and scattered thunderstorms tonight and daily through through Tuesday. Daily lows in the upper 50s, daily highs in the 70s. Winds westerly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

71 and partly cloudy, gusting to 30. Scattered thunderstorms Saturday, Sunday, andMonday, then partly cloudy weather. Daily lows around 60, daily highs in the upper 70s. Winds westerly, 10-15kts.

Kyiv

67 and cloudy. Rain tonight and tomorrow, then partly cloudy Sunday and Monday, then more rain. Daily lows in the upper 50s, daily highs in the 70s. Winds north-westerly, 10-15kts.

Politics and Diplomacy

President Zelenskyy and LTG Budanov, commenting on the exchange of POWs, said they expect the next transfer with a few days, but gave no more details.

Germany announced it would transfer a number of IRIS-T air defense units to Ukraine over the next 3 years, as well as 1.9 billion euros ($2.2 billion) in aid, on top of 7 billion euros ($8.1 billion) already pledged.  The IRIS-T is a family of systems with different missiles - short (5 miles) medium (12 miles) long (19 miles) and extender range (31 miles) variants. Presumably they will receive all variants; the system is a combined production effort between Germany, Greece, Italy, Norway, Spain and Sweden. A complete battery costs roughly 140 million euros ($160 million).

The Group of Seven (G7) will meet in Canada June 15-17. President Zelenskyy will attend the summit.

Former Speaker of the Verkhovna Rada Dmytro Razumkov has begun collecting signatures calling for the resignation of the current Cabinet of Ministers. The aim is to collect 200 signatures of parliamentarians under the collective initiative "draft resolution of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine On the responsibility of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine" (regarding the adoption of a resolution of no confidence in the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine).”

Razumkov commented:

"The Cabinet of Ministers has failed in absolutely all areas of its activity. The budget deficit, lack of money for the army and the threat of payments to defenders for the second year in a row. Failed international policy - due to the inaction of the Government, we have lost economic visa-free travel, and the Ukrainian economy - at least EUR 3.5 billion per year! The decline in industrial production - today it is minus 6.1%. The growth of tariffs and taxes, and as a result - hundreds of thousands of closed individual entrepreneurs and loss of jobs.”

Ground Operations

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS, AND NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Ukrainian elements retain a toe-hold on a small patch of terrain just across the border into Kursk Oblast, just east of the Russian town of Tetkino (about 35 miles north-west of Sumy City), but there were no confirmed changes in the front line in theirs area.

North and north-east of Sumy City Russian forces are still trying to grab land for their buffer zone, and claimed they have “fully occupied” Yablunivka, about 15 miles north-east of Sumy City. West of Yablunivka about 5 miles, imagery also confirmed that Russian forcesvhave pushed through the town of Oleksiivka and are now operating south of the town. On the western edge of the Russian “buffer zone,” imagery confirmed Russian forces moving further in and through Kindrativka.

No changes were reported north of Kharkiv.

Russian forces remained on the attack along the length of the Donets River, with ground operations reported in or near 18 different towns, yet there were no confirmed gains and Russian forces claimed gains only in one area, just outside of Torske.

BAKHMUT, TORETSK AND DONETSK CITY

North-east of Bakhmut, just west of Bilohorivka, along the southern banks of the Donets River, imagery confirms that Russian forces have taken control of all of the small town of Hryhorivka. Hyhorivka was abandoned in the first few months of the war and has remained empty since then.  Its significance is only its position: Russian forces can now attack through it and into Serebrianka, the next town to the west, and from there, begin to encircle Siversk.

West of Bakhmut, fighting continued in and around Chasiv Yar, but there were no changes to the front lines.

Russian forces were active at multiple points north of Toretsk and appear to have gained ground in the Dyliivka area, just to the north of Toretsk. Russian forces appear to be pushing up the secondary road (O0519) and the small river it roughly parallels, leading to Dyliivka and then Bila Hora. If they can reach Bila Hora they would effectively cut in half the pocket between Toretsk and Chasiv Yar.

  West of Toretsk Russian forces were active in or near Shcherbynivka, Romanivka, Oleksandro-Kalynove, and Yablunivka, and on the other side of the T0504 roadway near Rusyn Yar, Poltavka Popiv Yar. This places Russian forces just 10 miles from down-town Kostiantinivka and a dozen miles from the main supply route leading into the city from the north-west. As a reminder, Russian "fiber optic” drones have a range of 25 miles.

Russian forces were active east and south-west of Pokrovsk with action reported in 11 towns.

South of Pokrovsk Russian forces continue to press toward or across the Donetsk Oblast border into Dnipropetrovsk; Russian forces are pushing westward from Oleksiivka along the T0428 roadway (north of the Vovcha River) and are paralleling the river on the south side. On the south side of the river the Russian forces appear to have overrun the small towns from Odradne and Bahatyr eastward and are currently fighting in the small town of Zaporizhzhia, a village that consists of one street “T-ing” into another, with perhaps 45 houses in it. 

North of the river, Russian forces appear to have overrun Oleksiivka and pushed further west and quickly taken Zeleny Hut and Novokrainka and are pressing into Dachne, where the T0428 turns to the north and runs 6 miles north through open fields to Novopavlivka. Crossing into Dachne means they will cross into Dnipropetrovsk oblast at a second point.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Fighting continues along the Novopil - Vesele line, and Russian sources claimed gains in the Komar area, which seems reasonable, given the gains just to the north, along the southern banks of the Vovcha River, but these gains were not confirmed changes.

Fighting was also reported along the line of contact across southern Ukraine, but there were no confirmed changes in the front line.

Air Operations

During the night of  June 12th-June 13th Russian forces launched 4 x Iskander ballistic missiles and 43 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 28 drones, and 15 drones were “lost” (brought down by EW).

Damage has been reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Kherson was subject to a power blackout.

RuAF tacair struck 10 towns.

During the night of  June 11th-June 12th Russian forces launched 63 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 28 drones, and 21 drones were “lost” (brought down by EW).

Damage has been reported in Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Odessa, Sumy oblasts.

RuAF tacair struck 17 towns.

Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike on the night of the 11th, hitting the Rezonit Plant, in Zubovo, outside of Moscow Oblast. The Reznut plant reportedly produces guidance systems for artillery rockets, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles, and loitering munitions. 

Russia’s MOD claimed it shot down 260 Ukrainian drones on Thursday.

Ukrainian Army sources are reporting that Russian fiber-optic command link drones now can strike targets as far as 40 kilometers (25 miles) out.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Feb7 Mar4 Apr8 May8 Jun9 Jun12 Jun13

Brent      94.71      120.90    75.58      74.89 70.00 64.80 61.93 66.80 68.08 74.32

WTI     92.10    119.50  71.29      71.17 66.97 61.37 59.00 64.89 67.20 73.10

NG       3.97        8.41      2.15    3.37 4.44 3.69 3.64 3.69 3.59 3.54

Wheat     8.52       10.71    6.17     5.86 5.37 5.38 5.34 5.49 5.35 5.43

Ruble     85        58.48    82.59    96.88 89.50 86.24 82.45 79.27 80.15 80.03

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 - 36.4 41.46 41.40 41.18 41.55 41.55 41.39 41.48

Urals 56.56    68.32 65.49 52.76 54.13 60.84 63.37 64.55

ESPO N/A 71.50 70 48.90 63.97 65.37 67.30

Sokol 70.92 67.20 61.42 57.39 61.51 64.25 68.54

Oil prices were up 10 - 15% in the wake of the Strikes on Iran and there are forecasts of prices continuing to rise. It would obviously benefit Russia if prices rose, and in as much as China is a major purchaser of Iranian oil, Russia would be in a position to fill any shortfall generated by a cut-off of Iranian oil, if one were to occur. However, as of this morning, there is no indication of any special “deal” between China and Russia and presumably it is too early to see  that sort of thing. China imports about 12 million barrels of oil per day, and Iran was reportedly providing between 700,000 and 1.1 million barrels per day to China.

 

Thoughts

Overall, it would seem that the Russians are involved in an effort to straighten their lines (take control of all the potential salients ("fill in the pockets")) and shorten their lines, while beginning to establish buffer zones where possible around “their” terrain. 

There are repeated comments about Russian FPV drones with fiber optic links to their ground control and the difficulty Ukrainian forces are having dealing with them. Meanwhile, Russian forces are pushing forward to several key posts - such as Kostiantinivka, and using these FPV drones to start hitting supply movement into the town.

As I mentioned yesterday or the day before, what is also almost certainly happening, though is rarely reported, is that Russian engineering units are following the operational units and building defensive lines as they move forward. This will leave them with many lines of defense, most of them unoccupied, but it will make any planning to retake any terrain in depth that much more difficult.

v/r pete