June 11th, 2025

Politics - 1,212 Bodies of flatten soldiers returned to Ukraine

- 307 POWs released 

Combat Ops - More Russian gains west of Toretsk

- Air strikes continue.

Weather

Kharkiv

74 and cloudy. Cloudy and rain daily through Sunday. Daily lows in the 50s, daily highs in the 60s. Winds westerly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

79 and sunny. Partly cloudy to sunny all week. Daily lows around 60, daily highs in the upper 70s. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Kyiv

66 and cloudy, gusting over 20. Rain Thursday through Saturday morning, then some sun. Daily lows in the 50s, daily highs in the upper  60s. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Politics and Diplomacy

The UK will provide Ukraine 1.7 billion pounds ($2.3 billion) for additional weapons purchases; the likely focus is on air defense systems.

The second round of prisoner swaps has taken place, 307 POWs released.

The bodies of 1,212 fallen Ukrainian soldiers have been returned from Russia.

Ground Operations 

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLAST

Fighting continued in Sumy Oblast along all the line of contact but there were no confirmed changes in the front line.

North of Kharkiv fighting continues in Vovchansk and there are unconfirmed reports that Ukrainian forces have once again taken control of the aggregate plant inside Vovchansk. 

The aggregate plant sits inside the city and has been the scene of particularly fierce small-unit fighting since the Russians first pushed into Vovchansk at the end of May 2024, with control see-sawing back and forth; each time it exchanges hands involved prolonged, close in fights. It’s hard to image that there is anything of value left anywhere near the plant.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Russian forces continue to slowly push west and north-west from the west bank of the Oskil River, and about 15 miles up river from Kupyansk they’ve pushed into the small village of Krasne Pershe (a village of perhaps 40 houses), and also appear to have picked up more terrain near Fyholivka, the next village to the south-west, about 2.5 miles away, a slightly larger village with perhaps 50 houses.

Elsewhere, fighting continued along most of the line of contact north of Kupyansk.

Further south, east of Borova, Ukrainian forces pushed up the small Kolesnychka River, west of Kovalivka while Russian forces pushed westward and gained ground near Makiivka. And along the Zherebets River Ukrainian forces pushed just east of Torske and moved up one tree line to the east of that town, pushing Russian forces back a half kilometer.

BAKHMUT AND DONETSK

Fighting continues north of Bakhmut and west of Chasiv Yar, but here were no changes in the front lines.

Heavy fighting continues around Toretsk, both sides gained ground.

To the north-east and north-west of the town Ukrainian forces made modest gains, as Russian forces also made gains to the north-west.

West of Toretsk, between Toretsk and the T0504 roadway, Russian forces continue to grind out gains, pushing north from the general area north of Romanivka -  Zorya, and reportedly have pushed into Yablunivka and now control most of that town. Operations continue near that town and in the area of Oleksandro-Kalynove.

If the Russians push through, or swing east and go around Oleksandro-Kalynove, they’ll be able to use the reservoir to anchor their left flank and push east and cut off the remaining pocket west of Toretsk. Ukrainian forces are again faced with the decision as to how long to hold the pocket and trade casualties.

Further west, there were also unconfirmed Russian gains just south of Popiv Yar.

Fighting continues both east and south-west of Pokrovsk, with fighting reported in or near 17 towns; Russian forces had unconfirmed gains north-east of Pokrovsk near Shevchenko Pershe, as well as confirmed gains south-west of Novomykolaivka, along the Solana river, south-west of Pokrovsk. However, at the same time, Ukrainian forces are pushing hard to set the Russians back from the Dnipropetrovsk border, and attacked in much the same area - another Yin - Yang fight, if you will, and managed to push the Russian line back a half kilometer.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Ukrainian forces attacked into Fedorivka and claim to have pushed the Russians out; Russian forces have now dug into Vesele. Vesele sits on the eastern end of the last major prepared defensive line Ukrainian forces built across southern Ukraine.

Fighting continued along the line of intact across southern Ukraine but there were no changes in the front line.

Air Operations

During the night of  June 10th-June 11th Russian forces launched 1 x Iskander ballistic missile and 85 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 49 drones, and 8 drones were “lost” (brought down by EW).

Damage has been reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Odessa, and Sumy oblasts.

RuAF tacair struck 10 towns.

As a result of strikes over the last two days there is a power outage in Kherson and Mykolaiv oblasts. The regional administration in Kherson issued the following statement:

"All necessary services and ministries are providing the necessary assistance. I am grateful to them for their support! It is currently impossible to predict the duration of the work. Residents of the region, I ask you to be understanding and prepare for a long-term power outage.”

During the night of  June 9th-June 10th Russian forces launched 2 x Iskander class ballistic missiles, 5 x Iskander cruise missiles, and 315 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 213 drones, and 64 drones were “lost” (brought down by EW), and also claimed that both ballistic missiles and all 5 cruise missiles were shot down. The two Ballistic missiles are believed to have been North Korean manufactured KN-23s (which are basically the same missiles as the Iskander).

Damage has been reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Odessa, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

The Drone strike into Odessa resulted in a drone hitting a maternity hospital in that city, damaging the building but there were no casualties inside the hospital.

RuAF tacair struck 20 towns.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Feb7 Mar4 Apr8 May8 Jun9 Jun10 Jun11

Brent      94.71      120.90    75.58      74.89 70.00 64.80 61.93 66.80 67.28 67.98

WTI     92.10    119.50  71.29      71.17 66.97 61.37 59.00 64.89 65.50 66.24

NG       3.97        8.41      2.15    3.37 4.44 3.69 3.64 3.69 3.62 3.55

Wheat     8.52       10.71    6.17     5.86 5.37 5.38 5.34 5.49 5.37 5.36

Ruble     85        58.48    82.59    96.88 89.50 86.24 82.45 79.27 78.63 79.49

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 - 36.4 41.46 41.40 41.18 41.55 41.55 41.57 41.56

Urals 56.56    68.32 65.49 52.76 54.13 60.84 62.06 63.20

ESPO N/A 71.50 70 48.90 63.97 64.94 65.37

Sokol 70.92 67.20 61.42 57.39 61.51 62.37 62.05

Thoughts

As several of my colleagues have reminded me, in a war of attrition the most important numbers on each side are the manpower numbers: the size of the armies, the casualty rates, the replacement rates. But, for both Russia and Ukraine, the governments have been diligent in keeping the numbers under wraps. 

Numbers have been provided to Western press for Russian losses; these numbers are almost universally the same or only marginally adjusted numbers that are provided by the Ukrainian government and the Ukrainian General Staff. Any digging into them leaves the impression that they are generated for propaganda purposes and have little relationship with the actual casualties on the battlefield. There is one fairly methodical, diligent effort to develop hard Russian casualty figures (Mediazone), their current count is 111,400 KIA - a count of actual names they can find on all sources in Russia, and they estimate they could be as much as 50,000 (give or take) short, based on claims in probate courts in Russia, yielding a figure of perhaps 165,000 KIA. Using a 3.5 WIA to KIA ration, this yields WIA totals between 390,000 and 575,000 and total casualty figures between 500,000 and 740,000, a rate of 12,500 to 18,500 casualties (KIA + WIA per month). (This breaks into 2,750 - 4,100 KIA per month and 9,750 - 14,400 WIA per month).

There are no similar, organized, methodical numbers for Ukraine (the Ukrainian government has done a much better job in controlling information than has the Russia).

Still, sometimes numbers show up that raise an eyebrow; that happened just the other day; President Zelenskyy commented that Ukraine needs to bring 27,000 soldiers into the army every month, while Russia must bring in 40,000. He asserted that this is because Russia has higher casualty rates. But there are a couple of points. Assume for just a second that both numbers are propaganda. 40,000 fresh troops per month would translate into 480,000 per year, which would split out something like 110,000 KIA and 370,000 WIA per year. These are horrific numbers for any country, but take with a grain of salt, as they are probably inflated.

At the same time, Zelenskyy would be unlikely to inflate Ukrainian numbers. Presumably, 27,000 per month is a representative number. For argument’s sake, what if the replacement rate were only 20,000 per month?

Using a 4 to 1 WIA to KIA ratio this would still translate into 4,000 KIA and 16,000 WIA per month, which, if extended over the course of the war would yield 160,000 KIA and 640,000 WIA.

But, in fact, it's worse than that; Ukrainian officials have made the point that 70% of wounded return to active duty. If there was still a need to replace 20,000 casualties per month, that would suggest monthly casualties of roughly 8,000 KIA and 32,000 WIA, and 22,000 WIA return to active duty each month

The horrible point here is the President Zelenskyy just suggested that Ukraine has a need to recruit personnel at a rate that is “only” 67.5% of Russia’s rate: 27,000 vs 40,000. But Russia has a population 5 times that of Ukraine’s. Stated differently, assuming President Zelenskyy’s numbers vis-a-vis Ukraine are correct, as a percentage of their own populations, Ukrainian troops are being killed or wounded at 3.3 times the rate of Russian soldiers.

And despite the recent legerdemain of Ukrainian Special Services, this remains a war of attrition and these numbers suggest Ukraine is losing.

v/r pete