June 17th, 2025

Politics - G7 meeting continues but Trump departed early

Combat Ops - Some Russian gains north of Sumy

- Gains west of Toretsk, closing on Kostiantinivka

- More Air Strikes 

Weather

Kharkiv

80 and cloudy, gusting to 20. Rain showers tonight, partly to mostly cloudy all week, more rain on Friday. Daily lows in the upper 50s, daily highs in the upper 70s. Winds westerly, 5-15kts.

Melitopol

83 and partly cloudy. Partly cloudy all week, rain showers on Friday. Daily lows in the low 60s, daily highs in the 80s. Winds westerly, 10-15kts.

Kyiv

65 and cloudy, gusting over 30. Partly to mostly cloudy for the week, rain showers on Friday. Daily lows in the upper 50s to low 60s, daily highs in the 70s. Winds westerly, 10-15kts.

Politics and Diplomacy

The G7 meeting is wrapping up in Alberta, Canada but without President Trump, who left last night to return to Washington, DC. Speculation on Trump’s departure was that it had to do with the situation in Iran. When he was asked if it had to do with a ceasefire, Trump responded “It’s much bigger than that.”

Trump’s meeting with President Zelenskyy of Ukraine, Prime Minister Modi of India and President Sheinbaum of Mexico all were canceled.

  There was general agreement on continued support for Ukraine, and Canada pledged an additional C$4.3 billion ($3.1 billion) in assistance.

Note that Trump later sent out a texted:

“We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now. But we don’t want missiles shot at civilians, or American soldiers. Our patience is wearing thin. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”

This was followed shortly thereafter with:

“UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!”

Ground Operations

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Imagery confirmed that Russian forces have taken Kindrativka, about 12 miles north of Sumy city, and about 2.5 miles inside Ukraine. This is roughly the west end of the terrain seized by Russia north of Sumy City. But Russian forces remain active along the southern edge of this seized terrain and unconfirmed reports suggest that they have pushed into Yunakivka (about 15 miles north-east of Sumy City), along the H07 roadway.  A little further east, Russian forces have reportedly pushed across the border just south of the Russian town of Plekhovo, and pushed some 4 miles south-west into Ukraine and reached Myropillya, but this remains unconfirmed.

There were no changes to the front line north of Kharkiv city.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

There was no confirmed changes in the line of contact in the Kupyansk area and from there to the Russia - Ukraine border on the Oskil river.

In the general area east of Borova: north-east of Borova Ukrainian forces had confirmed gains immediately west of and north-west of Lozova, several days ago, and there are now unconfirmed reports of Russian forces making gains westward, just to the south of the Ukrainian forces.

Ukrainian forces yesterday made gains north and west of Makiivka, while Russian forces made unconfirmed gains to the south and west of Makiivka.

BAKHMUT - TORETSK - DONETSK CITY

North-east of Siversk, along the south bank of the Donets River, Russian forces have pushed west from Hyhorivka towards Serebryanska, along the main road connecting the two towns and are now approaching Serebryanska.

Fighting was reported in an arc to the north-west and south of Chasiv Yar but there were no confirmed changes in the front line.

North of Toretsk Russian forces continued to push north-west through Dyliivka and appear to have made marginal gains along the road - rail line.

West of Toretsk, Russian forces had confirmed gains along the T-0504 roadway, and the towns nearby, gaining ground into central Yablunivka. At the same time there are reports, not yet confirmed, but probably accurate, that Russian forces are pushing into Popiv Yar (west of the roadway), and Rusyn Yar, and are pushing north of Rusyn Yar, just to the east of that town, placing the forward edge of Russian forces less than 8 miles from the center of Kostiantinivka.

Fighting was also reported in 6 other towns in this area.

Further west and south, fighting took place along much of the Pokrovsk perimeter, with Russian probes reported in or near 17 different towns. There were unconfirmed Russian gains just south of Pokrovsk near Pishchane and to the east near Hrodiivka. Heavy fighting also continues south-west of Pokrovsk near the border with Dnipropetrovsk oblast, but it still appears that Russian forces south of Muravka remain on the Donetsk side of the border.

On the north side of the Vovcha River Russian forces still are pressing west but do not appear to have taken Zelenyi Kut. 

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Fighting continues on the Novopil - Vesele - Komar line, with imagery confirmed Russian forces pushing through Komar and pushing down (which is northward) the Mokri Yaly River, into the next small town, Perebudova. Komar had a population of about 1700 in the last census and was estimated to have 1300 before the war started; it is a town of 9 streets oriented roughly north-south and 4 streets roughly east west. Perebudova was much smaller, with just 3 north-south streets with perhaps 50 - 60 homes. Russian forces also appear to have seized the last of the open terrain  south of the Vovcha river between Bahatyr and the small town of Zaporizhia; placing Russian forces south of the Vovcha about 6 miles further west than Russian forces north of the Vovcha.

Fighting continues across southern Ukraine, with imagery showing Ukrainian forces had small gains just west of Myrne (about 12 miles due east of Orikhiv).

Russian forces - reportedly elements of an airborne division, continue to make probes across the Dnepr River near the Antonovsky bridge, just upstream from Kherson.

Air Operations

During the night of  June 16th-June 17th Russian forces launched 2 x Kinzhal ballistic missiles, 16 x Kh-101 cruise missiles, 9 x Kh-59/69 cruise missiles, 1 x Kh-31P ARM, 4 x Kalibr cruise missiles and 440 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 1 Kinzhal, 15 Kh-101s, 8 Kh-59/69s, the Kh-31P, and 262 drones. 163 drones were also “lost” (brought down by EW).

Damage and casualties have been reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kirovohrad, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Odessa, Sumy, Zaporizhia, and Zhytomyr oblasts; 15 civilians have been confirmed killed in Kyiv as a result of last night’s attack, with 116 wounded.

RuAF tacair struck 13 towns.

During the night of  June 15th-June 16th Russian forces launched 138 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 84 drones, and 41 drones were “lost” (brought down by EW).

Damage has been reported in Cherkasy, Donetsk, Kyiv, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. 

RuAF tacair struck 15 towns.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Feb7 Mar4 Apr8 May8 Jun9 Jun16 Jun17

Brent      94.71      120.90    75.58      74.89 70.00 64.80 61.93 66.80 72.96 74.69

WTI     92.10    119.50  71.29      71.17 66.97 61.37 59.00 64.89 71.61 73.07

NG       3.97        8.41      2.15    3.37 4.44 3.69 3.64 3.69 3.68 3.80

Wheat     8.52       10.71    6.17     5.86 5.37 5.38 5.34 5.49 5.35 5.54

Ruble     85        58.48    82.59    96.88 89.50 86.24 82.45 79.27 78.68 78.44

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 - 36.4 41.46 41.40 41.18 41.55 41.55 41.56 41.54

Urals 56.56    68.32 65.49 52.76 54.13 60.84 68.54 66.98

ESPO N/A 71.50 70 48.90 63.97 58.90 75.23

Sokol 70.92 67.20 61.42 57.39 61.51 68.29 67.45

Price for ESPO oil is a report of a spot price offered for ESPO oil in Shandong, China yesterday afternoon; I don’t have an explanation for why this price leap yesterday.

Thoughts

Assuming US forces assist the Israelis in destroying Iranian nuclear weapons elements (the speculation being that the US will drop GBU-57s on select deep targets within he Iranian nuclear programs), there remains a question as to how that might affect other crises.

It would seem to be dependent on whether the US could get involved quickly and then as equally quickly become “un-involved.” The weapons will be delivered, they will do what they do, the question is whether the US can get in and then get out without getting tangled up in the fight. Assuming the US can so execute, it would seem this would help US credibility in holding others’ - Putin in particular, but also Kim Jong Un and Xi Jinping - “feet to the fire.”

Said differently, the US needs to execute these strikes (assuming they take place) crisply and accurately, and then step back. If it can do that, leverage increases. If not…

v/r pete