June 23rd, 2025

Politics - NATO Summit 24-25 June

- NATO agrees to larger defense budgets 

- Russia condemns strikes, threatens, Trump responds with a warning

Combat Ops  - Large drones and missile strike 

- Russian ground forces gains 

Weather

Kharkiv

66 and partly cloudy, gusting over 20. Rain tonight, Tuesday night, more rain Thursday through Sunday. Daily lows in the 50s, daily highs in the 70s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

68 and partly cloudy, gusting to 30. Partly cloudy to sunny for the next week. Daily lows in the upper 50s to low 60s, daily highs in the 80s. Winds variable, 5-15kts.

Kyiv

65 and mostly cloudy, gusting to 25. Rain on Tuesday, and again Wednesday night, mostly cloudy all week. Daily lows in the 50s, daily highs in the 70s. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Politics and Diplomacy

NATO Summit in The Hague (June 24-25)

Ahead of the NATO summit NATO countries have agreed to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035, approved by all 32 members, to include President Trump.

US GDP is currently just a hair under $30 trillion, meaning a defense budget of 5% of GDP would amount to $1.5 trillion - a 50% increase from this year’s DOD budget. The Fed is projecting a US GDP of $4 trillion (at least the estimate I found) by 2035; a 5% DOD budget would work out to $2.2 trillion.
 

Russia condemned the US strikes on the Iranian nuclear facilities as a violation of the UN Charter. Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chair of Russia’s Security Council, and Kremlin’s resident firebrand, then suggested Russia could provide nuclear weapons to Iran (which, is of course, a violation of host of international agreements endorsed by the UN). 

President Trump responded:

Did I hear Former President Medvedev, from Russia, casually throwing around the "N word" (Nuclear!), and saying that he and other Countries would supply Nuclear Warheads to Iran? Did he really say that or, is it just a figment of my imagination? If he did say that, and, if confirmed, please let me Know, IMMEDIATELY. The "N word" should not be treated so casually. I guess that's why Putin's "THE BOSS." By the way, if anyone thinks our "hardware" was great over the weekend, far and away the strongest and best equipment we have, 20 years advanced over the pack, is our Nuclear Submarines. They are the most powerful and lethal weapons ever built, and just launched the 30 Tomahawks — All 30 hit their mark perfectly. So, in addition to our Great Fighter Pilots, thank you to the Captain and Crew!

Iran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, but so far there has been no spike in oil prices.

Deputy Prime Minister - National Unity Chernyshov has been named in an investigation by Ukraine’s National Anti-Corruption Board (NACB) on suspicion of abuse of office, and obtaining illegal benefits.

"One of the capital's developers developed a scheme for illegally obtaining a land plot in Kyiv for the construction of a residential complex. To do this, he turned to the head of the Ministry of Regional Development (Chernyshov, who held the position in 2020-2022, - Ed.), who, together with the State Secretary of the Ministry of Regional Development, the Minister's advisor, and the director of the state-owned enterprise, created conditions for transferring the plot to this state-owned enterprise. It illegally concluded investment agreements with the "necessary" construction company.”

As part of the scheme, the land was sold at an estimated 20% of its real value, an estimated difference of 1 billion hryvnia, or about $50 million. The Minister was estimated to benefit 14.5 million hyrvnia (more than $350,000).

Ground Operations

In a statement over the weekend Gen Syrskyi stated that the current Russian force commitment inside Ukraine is 695,000 troops, which includes their operational reserves, and a further strategic reserve - not in Ukraine - with 121,000 troops.

Ukraine’s army has been estimated to include between 800,000 to 1,240,000 troops, with roughly 250,000 to 300,000 on the front line or in the operational reserve. 

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Fighting continues north-west of Sumy City along the border near Tetkino, but there were no indications of any change. Ukrainian forces committed to this action probably remain in the neighborhood of 2 battalions and the Russians appear to be slowly grinding them down.

Due north of Sumy City fighting continued across an arc of 7 small towns and Ukrainian forces were able to push back into southern Andriivka, but there were no other changes to the front lines

Fighting continues near Lyptsi and Vovchansk (due north of Kharkiv), but there were no changes in the front lines.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Fighting continued the length of the line of contact; there was one reported but not yet confirmed change in the front lines with Russian forces apparently seizing Hrekivka and terrain to the west of that town. If correct, this terrain straightens and shortens the Russian line, making the front line in this area nearly a straight line between the two towns of Novyi Mir and Novoiehorivka.

BAKHMUT - TORETSK - DONETSK CITY

There were no confirmed changes in the front lines north or west of Bakhmut.

Further south, fighting continues north, north-west and west of Toretsk. There were no confirmed changes in the front lines, but anecdotal reporting suggests more gains north of Toretsk near Dyliivka, and more gains also both west of T-0504 roadway (near Rusyn Yar  and Poltavka) and east of the roadway as Russian forces reportedly pushed into central Yablunivka  and Oleksandro Kalynove.

Fighting continues both east and south-west of Pokrovsk and engagements were reported in or near 15 towns along the perimeter of the salient.

South-west of Pokrovsk Russian forces continue to press northward across the Solana River, and westward towards the Dnipropetrovsk border. Imagery confirmed some gains north of the Solana, around the town of Novoserhiivka, and Russian forces remain on the attack southward along the oblast border and nearby towns down to Zelenyi Kut and the Vovcha River.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

South of the Vovcha River, imagery confirmed that Russian forces have pushed further into Komar, crossed the Mokri Yaly River and pushed into the small village of Perebudova. The Russian MOD claimed that both towns are now under Russian control and this is probably correct.

Further south, Russian forces continued to probe and attack along the Vesele - Novopil line but there were no confirmed changes to the front line in this area.

Elsewhere across southern Ukraine, fighting continues, though there were no reports of changes in the front lines. Ukrainian forces reporting notes continuous Russian attacks near Mala Tokmachka and their opinion is that the Russians are trying to break through the Ukrainian line at this point.

Air Operations

During the night of  June 22nd-June 23rd Russian forces launched 11 x Iskander ballistic missiles, 5 x Iskander cruise missiles, and 352 Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 10 ballistic missiles, 5 cruise missiles, and 143 drones and 196 drones were also “lost” (brought down by EW).

Damage and casualties have been reported in Chernihiv, Donetsk, Kyiv and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

Casualties include at least 10 killed and 34 wounded.

RuAF tacair struck 8 towns.

During the night of  June 21st-June 22nd Russian forces launched 2 x Iskander ballistic missiles, 1 x S-300 ballistic missile, and 47 x Shahed drones. The UAF claimed it shot down 18 drones and 10 more drones were lost “lost” (brought down by EW).

Damage and casualties have been reported in Donetsk, Kherson, Mykolaiv, and Zaporizhia oblasts.

Casualties include at least 1 killed and 10 wounded civilians. In addition, an army training facility in the rear was struck, killing 3 soldiers and wounding 11.

During the night of  June 20th-June 21st Russian forces launched 2 x Kinzhal ballistic missiles, 4 x Kalibr cruise missiles, 2 x Iskander cruise missiles, and 272 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 1 Kinzhal ballistic missile, 3 Kalibr cruise missile and 1 Iskander cruise missile, plus 140 drones; 112 drones were also “lost” (brought down by EW).

Damage and casualties have been reported in Kharkiv, Kremenchuk, Odessa and Poltava oblasts.

During the night of  June 19th-June 20th Russian forces launched 86 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 34 drones and 36 drones were also “lost” (brought down by EW).

Damage and casualties have been reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Odessa and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

Casualties include at least 1 killed and 18 wounded.

RuAF tacair struck 7 towns.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Feb7 Mar4 Apr8 May8 Jun9 Jun20 Jun23

Brent      94.71      120.90    75.58      74.89 70.00 64.80 61.93 66.80 76.80 77.38

WTI     92.10    119.50  71.29      71.17 66.97 61.37 59.00 64.89 75.20 74.23

NG       3.97        8.41      2.15    3.37 4.44 3.69 3.64 3.69 4.07 3.82

Wheat     8.52       10.71    6.17     5.86 5.37 5.38 5.34 5.49 5.88 5.79

Ruble     85        58.48    82.59    96.88 89.50 86.24 82.45 79.27 78.49 78.45

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 - 36.4 41.46 41.40 41.18 41.55 41.55 41.95 41.92

Urals 56.56    68.32 65.49 52.76 54.13 60.84 74.55 72.24

ESPO 71.50 70 48.90 63.97 80.85 79.01

Sokol 70.92 67.20 61.42 57.39 61.51 70.00 71.41

Oil prices were from before noon and appear to have dropped further this afternoon as Iran appears to hesitate about closing the Strait of Hormuz, and retaliated only with missiles launched at US bases, which were all shot down.

Thoughts

The Russians may or may not be truing to break through the Ukrainian line at Mala Tokmachka (just south-east of Orikhiv). But the nature of the Russian tactics is to inflict casualties first, then gain ground. It would seem that the continuous Russian activity both near Mala Tokmachka and west of Orikhiv between Kamyanske and Novoandriivlka is to wear down the Russian forces by a continual generation of casualties, and at some point there will be a break in the line. This will then be exploited until they are stopped and the process will repeat itself.

Over the past month or so Russian forces west of Orikhiv, between Stepove and Mali Shcherbaky, have pushed about 3 miles north of the T-0812 roadway and are now about a mile south of town of Pavlivka. As was pointed out by BH Liddell Hart concerning Russian tactics in WWII, there were no rapid breakthroughs, just a slow, steady, lower risk grind that generated German casualties. The Russians seem to be repeating this, despite the propaganda that insists the Russians are suffering 10 - 20 times as many casualties as the Ukrainians (the numbers are about even). In fact, the first thing that Russian tactics produce is Ukrainian casualties. The eventual consequence of enough casualties is terrain.

v/r pete