June 20th, 2025

Politics - Date for next round of talks to be announced next week

- POWs exchanged  

Combat Ops - Russian gains near Kupyansk

- Russian gains near Toretsk and Pokrovsk

Weather

Kharkiv

63 and mostly cloudy, gusting over 30. Cloudy through Tuesday, rain showers Saturday, Sunday and Monday. Daily lows in the low 50s, daily highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Winds westerly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

71 and sunny, gusting over 30. Partly cloudy to sunny for the next week, rain showers possible Sunday night. Daily lows in the upper 50s, daily highs in the upper 70s. Winds westerly, 10-15kts.

Kyiv

55 and cloudy, gusting over 20. Mostly cloudy, more rain showers tonight, Sunday, Tuesday and Wednesday. Daily lows in the low 50s, daily highs in the upper 60s. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Politics and Diplomacy

Kremlin Spokesman Peskov announced that Russia expects to announced next week the dates for the next round of talks with Ukraine. Peskov noted that Vladimir Medinsky, lead of the Russian negotiating team, is in contact with his Ukrainian counterpart (MinDef Umerov).

Ukraine and Russia exchanged POWs for the 5th time yesterday, the numbers exchanged were not released.

President Zelenskyy has appointed BGEN Hennadii Shapovalov as the Commander of the Ground Forces, replacing BGEN Mykhailo Drapatyi, who “resigned” on June 3rd and was then  appointed Commander of the Joint Forces.

Ground Operations 

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Fighting continues in a wide arc north of Sumy City; fighting continues on the border near Tetkino (north-west of Sumy City), and due north of Sumy City, Ukrainian forces appear to have pushed back into the small town of Andriivka and taken control of the south-west edge of the town.

No changes were noted north of Kharkiv.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

The Russian MOD claims that Russian forces have "full occupation” of the town of Myrne (Moskovka per the Russian MOD) immediately north-west of Kuyansk, astride the Kupyanske River and within easy striking distance of the Ground Lines of Communication (GLOC) into Kupyansk. Meanwhile, Imagery confirmed that Russian forces were in southern Kindrashivka as of the 17th - less than 2 miles north of Myrne.

There were no other confirmed changes - despite reports of a good deal of intense fighting - in the front lines north of the Donets River, but the taking of Myrne by the Russians would change the tactical picture in this area.

BAKHMUT - TORETSK - DONETSK CITY

There were no confirmed changes in the front lines north of, nor west of, Bakhmut.

South of Bakhmut, in the Toretsk area, Russian forces appeared to continue to grind out small gains north of Toretsk, pushing north-west through both Dyliivkas.

North-west of Toretsk Russian forces had confirmed gains in Oleksandro Kalynove, and assaults continue into Yablunivka, just west of Oleksandro Kalynove. West of the T0504 roadway Russian forces continue to press on the Popiv Yar - Poltavka - Rusyn Yar line.

Fighting continues along most of the perimeter of the Pokrovsk salient, with Russian forces reported active in 13 towns. Russian forces appear to have taken Shevchenko Pershe, a small village north-east of Pokrovsk about 10 miles, west of the T0504 roadway. To the south-west there was one confirmed change as Russian forces advanced west of the town of Horikhove, but there were no other confirmed changes in the front lines. 

South-west of Pokrovsk, along the Dnipropetrovsk oblast border, Ukrainian forces continue to report that no Russian forces have crossed the Dnipropetrovsk oblast border, though fighting was reported in 5 towns in this area; anecdotal reporting continues to reflect Russian activity of some kind (perhaps recon elements) west of the border. Ukrainian army sources reported several Russian units were rotating off the front line and that there was a resultant slight drop in activity in this area.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

South of the Vovcha River Russian forces continue to press to the north-west but there were no changes in the front lines.

Activity was also reported across southern Ukraine but, again, there were no changes reported in the front lines.

Air Operations

During the night of  June 19th-June 20th Russian forces launched 86 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 34 drones and 36 drones were also “lost” (brought down by EW).

Damage and casualties have been reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, and Odessa oblasts.

Casualties include at least 1 killed and 18 wounded.

RuAF tacair struck 7 towns.

During the night of  June 18th-June 19th Russian forces launched 10 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 40 drones and 48 drones were also “lost” (brought down by EW).

Damage and casualties have been reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Sumy, and Zaporizhia oblasts.

Casualties include at least 2 killed and 5 wounded.

RuAF tacair struck 7 towns.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Feb7 Mar4 Apr8 May8 Jun9 Jun19 Jun20

Brent      94.71      120.90    75.58      74.89 70.00 64.80 61.93 66.80 78.10 76.80

WTI     92.10    119.50  71.29      71.17 66.97 61.37 59.00 64.89 76.90 75.20

NG       3.97        8.41      2.15    3.37 4.44 3.69 3.64 3.69 4.04 4.07

Wheat     8.52       10.71    6.17     5.86 5.37 5.38 5.34 5.49 5.74 5.88

Ruble     85        58.48    82.59    96.88 89.50 86.24 82.45 79.27 78.42 78.49

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 - 36.4 41.46 41.40 41.18 41.55 41.55 41.84 41.95

Urals 56.56    68.32 65.49 52.76 54.13 60.84 71.44 74.55

ESPO N/A 71.50 70 48.90 63.97 78.70 80.85

Sokol 70.92 67.20 61.42 57.39 61.51 70.56 70.00

Price for ESPO oil is a report of a spot price offered for ESPO oil in Shandong, China today. China appears to be trying to fill up its crude oil storage facilities to provide a buffer if the situation deteriorates further in the Mid East.

Thoughts

The Russian MOD announced that the 27th Guards Independent MRB took the town of Myrne / Moskovka, just north-west of Kupyansk.

The Russian announcement stress that the brigade used small unit infiltration tactics that, and forced the defenders out of their tranches while keeping Russian casualties low. How true all this is remains to be seen. The taking of the town has yet to confirmed. But it does point out several things: 

The Russians continue to try to adapt tactics to work forward over the Ukrainian defenses, and are aware that they are slow in their movements and are trying to develop shorter response times without increasing the tactical risk. The fact is this town was seemingly untouched by Russian ground forces as of 3 days ago and has now apparently been taken, a rate of advance well above the Russian average since they adopted attrition tactics in late 2022.

Taking this town places at risk the GLOC into Kupyansk. If Kupyansk were to be lost, it would significantly increase the difficulty to Ukraine of holding the terrain east of the Oskil River. 

Ukraine will need to flow forces into Kupyansk - at this point Kupyansk must not be lost. But, as has already been noted by various Ukrainian battalion and brigade commanders elsewhere (most recently in the Sumy Oblast during the past week), there are no reserve forces to speak of. Each brigade movement seems to be a “Rob Peter to Pay Paul” operation. While in fact the Ukrainian manpower situation may not be as dire as that sounds (the real manpower situation is a state secret), one thing to watch will be whether we see another example of rear area forces being stripped of personnel and turned into infantry; this would be a graphic sign that personnel shortages are, in fact, severe.

One final word, this does point out that there is a great deal going on along the front lines that simply is not covered on a daily bases by most news wires or the various commercial intelligence companies, and it’s relatively easy for the tactical situation to develop outside of the public eye.

v/r pete