June 5th, 2025 1942 - Battle of Midway (through 07 June)

Slightly abbreviated summaries today and tomorrow

 

Politics - Trump and Putin spoke

- US Embassy Kyiv issues alert

Combat Ops - Russian gains vic Sumy and east of Pokrovsk

- Imagery still only confirms 10 aircraft destroyed

Politics and Diplomacy

President Trump spoke with President Putin yesterday. Trump commented:

"I just finished speaking, by telephone, with President Vladimir Putin, of Russia. The call lasted approximately one hour and 15 minutes. We discussed the attack on Russia's docked airplanes, by Ukraine, and also various other attacks that have been taking place by both sides. It was a good conversation, but not a conversation that will lead to immediate Peace. President Putin did say, and very strongly, that he will have to respond to the recent attack on the airfields.” 

"We also discussed Iran, and the fact that time is running out on Iran’s decision pertaining to nuclear weapons, which must be made quickly! I stated to President Putin that Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon and, on this, I believe that we were in agreement.

President Putin suggested that he will participate in the discussions with Iran and that he could, perhaps, be helpful in getting this brought to a rapid conclusion. It is my opinion that Iran has been slow-walking their decision on this very important matter,

and we will need a definitive answer in a very short period of time!”

Pope Leo XIV also spoke with Putin, and the Vatican confirmed that the two spoke about peace in Ukraine.

Meanwhile, US Embassy Kyiv issued a heightened security alert due to "continued risk of significant air attacks,” recommended US citizens exercise caution, and listed actions to take:

• Identify shelter locations in advance of any air alert
• Download a reliable air alert app to your mobile phone, such as “Air Raid Siren” or “Alarm Map” 
• Immediately take shelter away from windows in the most hardened location you can move to if an air alert is announced
• Monitor local media for updates
• Keep reserves of water, food, and medication
• Follow the directions of Ukrainian officials and first responders in the event of an emergency
• Review what the Department of State Can and Cannot Do in a Crisis

President Trump has apparently vetoed the idea of the US providing air defenses any peace treaty assurance force in post-war Ukraine, what has been considered a key element of the UK - France security guarantee. Prime Minister Starmer had identified a US led air defense as the key to a permanent peace plan, but the US has again rejected that idea.

US Ambassador to NATO Whitaker commented:

"We appreciate the work that the allies, particularly France and the United Kingdom together with Germany and others have undertaken to develop the coalition of the willing. We are counting on all our European allies to continue taking the leadership position in contributing military resources and providing the political capital to make security guarantees a reality.”

MODUK will spend 350 million pounds ($476 million) to provide Ukraine with 100,000 drones this year, and 287 million pounds ($390 million) for training and maintenance of Ukraine personnel Ukrainian gear.

Ground Operations 

Russian and Ukrainian forces remain engaged along essentially the entire line of contact. Changes in the front line were noted in two areas, the two areas that seem to correspond to some sort of Russian summer offensive: the effort to create a buffer zone in Sumy Oblast, and in the lines just south of Pokrovsk, and east of Pokrovsk to the Toretsk area. 

Due north of Sumy Russian forces were confirmed to have taken the small town of Vodolahy, as was noted yesterday but not confirmed. Further Russian reporting claims that Russian forces have taken Kindrativka, which lies west of Andriivka about 2 -3 miles, as well as the two small towns of Varachyne and Yablunivka, which lie about 5 and 7 miles respectively east of Andriivka. Collectively, this gives the Russians a string of five towns (Kindrativka, Andriivka, Oleksiivka, Varachyne and Yablunivka) in an east-west row, as the current southern edge of a “buffer zone" that they will presumably keep trying to expand, and is consistent with the Russian efforts to continually straighten their lines.

Looking at the map, it would seem that, at least based on geography, a possible "buffer zone” boundary in this area is about another 5-6 miles south, using the small towns that line the string of interconnected reservoirs, ponds, rivers and irrigation canals that run roughly east west across Sumy Oblast.

Further south, in the Russian Center, Russian forces pushed up the T0504 roadway and gained some ground along the west side of the town of Yablunivka. Fighting was also reported to the west of the roadway, as Russian forces try to enter Popiv Yar and Rusyn Yar, and additional Russian gains were noted a few miles east of Pokrovsk, also in the neighborhood of the T0504 roadway.

Air Operations

During the night of  June 4th-June 5th Russian forces launched least 1 x Iskander ballistic missile and 103 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 28 drones, and 46 were “lost” (brought down by EW). Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts (reports not complete at this time).

RuAF tacair struck 18 Ukrainian towns again last night.

During the night of  June 3rd-June 4th Russian forces launched least 1 x Iskander ballistic missile and 95 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 36 drones, and 25 were “lost” (brought down by EW). Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv,  Odessa, Poltava, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

RuAF tacair struck 15 Ukrainian towns again last night.

Special Operations - Spider’s Web

Maxar satellite imagery has been able to confirm:

- 2 x Tu-22s and 3 x Tu-95s destroyed at Belaya Airbase

- 4 x Tu-95s and 1 x An-12 transport destroyed at Olenya Airbase

Thoughts 

The various commentaries, and the US Embassy issuing a warning, point to the same thing: Putin will conduct a retaliatory strike in the near term. I think it’s likely that it will be both a military and infrastructure target, but there will be some effort to minimize civilian targets. The Russians, despite the press reports, have been fairly diligent about that, within the parameters of weapon systems that can be quite inaccurate if jammed. The 400+ drone strike the other night, in which more than 80 drones reached their targets, resulted in fewer than a dozen casualties, suggesting they are trying to avoid civilian casualties - or are simply more interested in striking industrial and infrastructure targets that have relatively few people present.

That said, it would seem that Putin will want some sort of target set that has a real impact on the war and at the same time is “visible” and newsworthy, a “Photo of the Day” sort of target. There are still pieces left to the power grid but most of them are small and would not yield any spectacular result unless they had figured out how to make the entire system fail, and they conducted the strike at night, make the country “go dark” in such a way that it is a significant period of time before the power is restored.

Dropping 4 or 5 of the busiest bridges over the Dnepr might be spectacular enough, but do they have the weapon accuracy and reliability to pull that off? Bridges can be difficult to drop unless using a laser guided weapon or some other very precise system, and you can destroy an abutment, rather than simply dropping a span.

Mining the approaches to Odessa would be significant, but to most of the world would be utterly invisible.

They could always target government buildings in Kyiv, but that opens up the targeting of government buildings in Moscow.

As to when, who knows. He might wait for quite a while, see if he can lull the Ukrainians into a false sense that he has decided not to strike and then strike, he may go tomorrow, or he may be looking for the “right” target list and and it hasn’t been presented to him yet… 

v/r pete