June 18th, 2025

Politics - G7 - No Statement 

- Zelenskyy to NATO Summit?

Combat Ops - Gains west of Toretsk

Weather

Kharkiv

70 and mostly cloudy, gusting over 20. Rain showers again tonight, partly to mostly cloudy all week. Daily lows in the 50s, daily highs around 70. Winds westerly, 5-15kts.

Melitopol

75 and sunny, gusting to 20. Partly cloudy all week. Daily lows in the low 60s, daily highs around 80s. Winds westerly, 10-15kts.

Kyiv

60 and cloudy, gusting to 20. Mostly cloudy through Monday, rain showers on Friday, Saturday, Sunday. Daily lows in the 50s, daily highs in the upper 60s to 70s. Winds westerly, 10-15kts.

Politics and Diplomacy

G-7: 

Canada’s PM Carney pledged an additional $2billion in aid to Ukraine.

However, there was no final, overarching statement released, as President Trump had already departed early in order to address the Iranian crisis. Several members were, reportedly upset.

President Zelenskyy called on G-7 leaders to apply pressure on President Trump to bring an end to the war.

“Even if the American President is not putting enough pressure on Russia right now, the truth is that America still has the broadest global interests and the largest number of allies.”

In the wake of the less than satisfactory G7, the Guardian is reporting that senior Ukrainian officials are advising President Zelenskyy to not attend the NATO summit next week in the Hague (24-25 June), as they fear Trump may not attend. The unnamed official commented:

"It is a permanent hazard that Ukraine is a victim of events and Trump’s short attention span. Vladimir Putin knows that, which may be why there was such a large attack in Ukraine last night. There had been all sorts of promises for this summit – including new US arms deliveries being offered.”

Secretary Shoigu, Russian Security Council, commented that Kim Jong Un has agreed to send 6,000 North Korean papers and engineers to assist in reconstruction in the Kursk oblast. 

It is worth noting that the Russians have, after the first year of the war in particular, been very aggressive in building, repairing, expanding and improving defensive lines, barrels and fitting positions in occupied Ukraine. Presumably this is all part of that ongoing effort.

The EU and the UK announced new sanctions against Russia, addressing financial and industrial elements of Russia’s economy.

Ground Operations

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Fighting continues along the border north-west of Sumy city, near the Russian town of Tetkino, but there were no changes in the front line.

North and north-east of Sumy city there are claims of some small Russian gains but there were no confirmed changes in the lines.

There were also no changes north of Kharkiv city.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Fighting was reported along essentially the entire line of contact but there were no confirmed changes in the line.

BAKHMUT - TORETSK - POKROVSK AREA

North of Bakhmut, imagery confirmed that Russian forces pushing roughly westward from Hryhorivka have pushed into the small town of Serebryanka and now have a hold on the north-west corner of the town, while there were no gains west of Bakhmut in the Chasiv war area.

Russian forces continue to make small gains north of Toretsk as they press up the road and rail line that leads north-west through the small town of Dyliivka, (just north of Toretsk).

West of Toretsk Russian forces had no gains confirmed in imagery, but Ukrainian General Staff reporting on the location of engagements suggests the Russian line east of the T0504 roadway continues to move generally northward. Russian forces appear to have holds on the southern edges of both Yablunivka and Oleksandro Kalynove (west of the Kleban Byk reservoir) and appear to have inched forward on the T0516 roadway just east of the reservoir.

Russian forces conducted offensive operations in 19 towns in the Pokrovsk salient, and had confirmed gains to the east (near Shevchenko Pershe - just north of Malynivkla on the T0504 roadway) and to the south-west in Udachne. But Russian forces remain east of the oblast border.

South of the Pokrovsk salient (from the Vovcha River north to the Dnipropetrovsk oblast border) Russian forces had unconfirmed gains just west of Horikhove and appear to be trying to close up the small pocket between Horikhove and Zelenyi Hut (about 5 miles north to south and 3 miles east to west) and then close on the border with Dnipropetrovsk oblast.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Fighting was reported across most of southern Ukraine. Just south of the Vovcha River Russian forces fighting continues roughly along the line from the town of Zaprorizhia to the west of about 3 miles west of Komar and Russian forces had confirmed gains in the Perebudova area and possible gains further west. Russian forces control the H-15 road from Komar, east. Further south, Russian forces were active along the Zelenyi Pole - Vesele line, and claimed gains just east of Shevchenko, but these gains have not been confirmed. Russian forces also remained active near Hulyaipole, and west and south of Orikhiv, but there were no changes in the line.

Fighting was reported near the Antonovsky Bridge, just up river from Kherson, and Russian forces attempted another landing on one of the nearby islands in the river (not further identified), but were apparently unable to hold onto island.

Air Operations

During the night of  June 17th-June 18th Russian forces launched several S-300 missiles and 58 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 12 drones and 18 drones were also “lost” (brought down by EW). Damage and casualties have been reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv,  Kherson, and Zaporizhia oblasts.

Casualties include at least 1 killed and 3 wounded.

RuAF tacair struck 15 towns.

During the night of  June 16th-June 17th Russian forces launched 2 x Kinzhal ballistic missiles, 16 x Kh-101 cruise missiles, 9 x Kh-59/69 cruise missiles, 1 x Kh-31P ARM, 4 x Kalibr cruise missiles and 440 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 1 Kinzhal, 15 Kh-101s, 8 Kh-59/69s, the Kh-31P, and 262 drones. 163 drones were also “lost” (brought down by EW).

Damage and casualties have been reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kirovohrad, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Odessa, Sumy, Zaporizhia, and Zhytomyr oblasts; 28 civilians have been confirmed killed in Kyiv as a result of that night’s attack, with 140 wounded.

RuAF tacair struck 13 towns.

Curious

OpenAI’s ChatGPT provided BFO analysis of the Russia-Ukraine war, at the request of the Ukrainian News Agency.

The News agency asked for the three most likely scenarios for the end of the wars and OpenAI responded with as much acumen as might be found in the average motor pool late on a Friday afternoon. Notice also the use of enough qualifiers that it ‘might possibly satisfy - maybe’ any intelligence analyst: 

Optimistic scenario - the second half of 2025:

"In the event of a significant increase in military assistance from the West, in particular the supply of long-range missiles, modern aircraft and air defense systems, Ukraine may regain the initiative and return part of the occupied territories. This may force Russia to agree to negotiations by the end of 2025.”

The most likely scenario:

"According to Western analysts, without radical internal shifts in the Russian federation or a significant technological breakthrough in Ukraine, the active phase of the conflict will last at least another one and a half to two years. A gradual transition to the negotiation process is possible in 2026, but the final end of the war is not earlier than 2027.”

Pessimistic scenario:

A gradual "freezing" of hostilities is possible, similar to the conflict in the Donbas in 2014–2021. "In this case, a prolonged period of instability and uncertainty could persist until the end of the decade, without the signing of a full-fledged peace.” 

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Feb7 Mar4 Apr8 May8 Jun9 Jun17 Jun18

Brent      94.71      120.90    75.58      74.89 70.00 64.80 61.93 66.80 74.69 75.57

WTI     92.10    119.50  71.29      71.17 66.97 61.37 59.00 64.89 73.07 74.06

NG       3.97        8.41      2.15    3.37 4.44 3.69 3.64 3.69 3.80 3.98

Wheat     8.52       10.71    6.17     5.86 5.37 5.38 5.34 5.49 5.54 5.87

Ruble     85        58.48    82.59    96.88 89.50 86.24 82.45 79.27 78.44 78.24

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 - 36.4 41.46 41.40 41.18 41.55 41.55 41.54 41.70

Urals 56.56    68.32 65.49 52.76 54.13 60.84 66.98 71.17

ESPO N/A 71.50 70 48.90 63.97 75.23 78.45

Sokol 70.92 67.20 61.42 57.39 61.51 67.45 69.52

Price for ESPO oil is a report of a spot price offered for ESPO oil in Shandong, China today. 

Thoughts

The Jerusalem Post reports that the IDF is facing a shortage of Arrow missiles, and an anonymous US official notes that the US is aware of the problem and that additional US assets are being deployed.

This is of note to Ukraine as, of course, the PATRIOT missile production line produces some 1,000 missiles per year - split roughly evenly between PAC-2 (optimized for attacking aircraft) and PAC-3 variants (optimized for attacking tactical ballistic missiles) and Lockheed was trying to increase production to 650 per year each by the end of this year. Usage rates are closely held but it is clear that the missiles were being used in Ukraine alone at far higher rates than the production rates; the use in Israel by deployed US systems will, obviously, not improve the situation.

But this also serves to point out the need of the US to harbor scarce resources (weapons systems and ammunition of all kinds) until we can get the industrial base engaged. That the war started 40 months ago and this problem still has not been addressed is remarkable. Perhaps even more remarkable is that there appears even less effort on the part of the EU to address these shortfalls.

Everything shouldn’t be compared to WWII, but the numbers point out what is possible: In 1940 the US made 1,700 combat aircraft - in 1942 the US made 25,000 combat aircraft. The situation is not the same but the lesson remains: a great deal is possible if you apply some effort. Certainly, in 3 years and 4 months we could have done better than we are doing…

v/r pete